Cases yest , 88 up 151% from last Tuesday's 35, and highest since Jun 24 (92). That means 7d average cases/d still climbing, now at 56.14, up from yest 48.57 (huge jump). % positivity also climbing, now at 1.40, up from yest 1.18% (also big jump) (highest since Jun 28). 2/
Delta: 19June 31 cases a 244% incr from last Monday's 9. % of total cases 31/61=51% compared to 9/36=25%. 18 June #s reported yest adjusted by 2 to 30, so yest was actually a 233% incr (not 211%). steep exponential growth seen on the 7d average chart. 3/
Hospitalizations: inpt -3 to 71 yest. ICU stubbornly flat at 27. 15.6% drop over the week though. Deaths: zero!! Yay!! 4/
Demographics: 5/
I've been pondering whether this new rise in cases can be solely blamed on the mass gathering Stampede AB just hosted. This would be suggested by the preponderance of cases in Calgary, and amongst 20-27s. In that case, we would start to see cases decline in about 10 days (yay!)6/
Unfortunately, I don't think this is the case. If you look at the demographics of tweet 7, you'll notice two things. We are now seeing rising cases in other demographics, both geographically (North and Edmonton in particular), and ages (5-19, and esp. 80+). 7/
One more thing that has been pointed out on twitter (@lisa_iannattone). Two weeks ago two provinces dropped their mask mandate. Now two provinces have substantially worrisome Rts of >1.5. These are the same provinces. And BC didn't host the Stampede. fin/
Thanks to @DFisman for the Rt data, and @CBCFletch and AB Health for the graphics. (double fin).

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More from @jvipondmd

24 Jul
Well, s(%t folks, here's your AB s#(*&y COVID # Analysis for Fri July 23rd. F(*#. G)#(**n. 1/
Cases yest 173, a 232% increase over last Thursday's 52. This is crazy stuff, worst day ever. Doubling in 3.5 days, by raw numbers. I don't even know what to say. 7 day average up to 78.86% compared to yest 62.9. % positivity up to 2.14% from yest 1.46% highest since Jun 18. 2/ ImageImage
Delta 20th June 58, or a % increase over last Tues 16. % of daily cases: 58/87=66.7% compared to last week's 16/35= 45.7%. 3/ ImageImage
Read 10 tweets
23 Jul
Here's your AB COVID # analysis for JULY 22nd. 1/
Cases yest , 100 up 96% from last Tuesday's 51, and highest since Jun 22 (100). That means 7d average cases/d still climbing, now at 62.86, up from yest 56.14 . % positivity also climbing, now at 1.43, up from yest 1.40%. 2/ ImageImageImage
Delta: 19June 35 cases a 288% incr from last Monday's 9. % of total cases 35/61=57% compared to 9/36=25% a week ago. 20 June likely incomplete data but at 49 towers over the rest. Will do breakdown of 20 June tomorrow. Also look at Alpha evaporating as it is outcompeted. 3/ ImageImageImage
Read 12 tweets
21 Jul
Against my better judgement, I figure it is time to relaunch the daily COVID # analysis. Because sure as heck looks like we're in the throes of early exponential growth. But man, I hope I'm wrong. 1/
Cases yest 63, a 75% rise over last Monday's 36. This is the fourth day in a row of substantial growth. 7 day average up to 49/day from a low of 39/d on July 13th. % positivity up to 1.24% highest since July 3rd (1.26%) 2/
Delta: on 18th July cases of 28, a 211% increase over last week's 9. %of total cases 28/41=68%, compared to last week's 9/32=28%. 7 day average up to 18.7, highest since July 1st (20.1). 3/
Read 8 tweets
20 Jul
Back from vacation (no, I'm not back in my happy zen place... thanks climate crisis, for wrecking things). But now that Stampede is over seems like a good time for a check in on the current COVID statistics. 1/
Daily cases last three days Friday 52 up 44% from last week's 36, Saturday 47 up 57% from last week's 30, Sunday 41 up 28% last week's 32. 7day average reached a nadir of 39.71/day 15 July, now 45.71/day. Positivity up to 0.99% from a low of 0.50% on July 10th. 2/
Delta now starting to rise again, and representing a full 72% of all variants, a new record. 3/
Read 7 tweets
26 May
Summary of my thoughts on today's restrictions: 1/
First off, I'm all for opening up, but safely, and an acknowledgement of risks. See Ontario's plan for a better planned, cautious return to activity. Especially note using 2nd dose %population as a criteria: ontario.ca/page/reopening… 2/
Next: the good. Happy they are starting with relaxation of outdoor restrictions. Outdoors is really really safe. We should be encouraging more outdoor interaction, aside from prolonged, face to face, maskless interactions. 3/
Read 8 tweets
25 May
Here's your AB COVID # analysis for Tuesday May 25 1/
Yest's cases 394, a 57.4% from last Monday's 925. 7day ave decrease of 48.2% v. similar compared to last 2 days. Stunning drop continues. Positivity 9.85% compared to last week's 11.45% so average keeps dropping. 2/
B1617 variant now up to 29... none new reported today but certainly a dark purple footprint on @ByMatthewBlack chart on recent days. Reminder that since the gov't has foregone 100% screening of +ves for variants this data is extremely incomplete. 3/
Read 6 tweets

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