@Scienceofsport @njstone9 “Hubbard says she stopped weightlifting in 2001 at the age of 23 "because it just became too much to bear", blaming "the pressure of trying to fit into a world that perhaps wasn't really set up for people like myself".
@Scienceofsport@njstone9 “After transitioning to female aged 35 in 2012, it would be another five years before Hubbard competed at international weightlifting competitions - and she achieved immediate success.”
@Scienceofsport@njstone9 It can’t just be me that realises how utterly insane it is that this is a person who didn’t lift weights for over 15 years - 15 years - and has, in a couple of years of retraining, become competitive at the highest level???
@Scienceofsport@njstone9 Hubbard isn’t just old (will be the oldest weightlifter ever to compete as female) but has been out of the game for so long, any hope of international success would be typically way out of reach.
@Scienceofsport@njstone9 Elite weightlifters who compete at Master’s age with long-standing and successful international careers behind them (or still ongoing) are not as far ahead of their age-matched peers as is Hubbard.
@Scienceofsport@njstone9 Hubbard took at least 15 years off and, within a couple of years, is better in her category than males and females with a slew of international medals in their locker and a lifetime of elite training and competition.
@Scienceofsport@njstone9 And at an age when those elite weightlifters are getting weaker, losing their edge, no longer challenging in the senior category, Hubbard is getting stronger and has the third highest total lift in an Olympic field.
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Alvares 2025, n=7, fat mass is higher in females as both absolute and relative values. This is logged as "favours cisgender", which is kinda odd because high fat mass isn't usually considered favourable for sports, but whatever.
TIMS: 16.2 kg (24%). F: 19.5 kg (26%).
But Ceolin 2024 is also logged as "favours cisgender" when their values are:
There are little-to-no controls for physical fitness in the individual studies.
Yet they conclude: “transgender women do not exhibit significant differences in upper-body strength, lower-body strength or maximal oxygen consumption relative to cisgender women after 1–3 years of GAHT.”
You haven’t controlled for fitness!!!
Their "performance" data. Can you see one study that really sticks out as an outlier?
The claim that won't die: trans-identifying males are "underpowered" and therefore "disadvantaged" in sport.
"One can imagine a large car with a small engine competing against a small car with a small engine, and that summarizes the playing field." Joanna Harper, Huff Post, 2016.
"You have a bigger body, and you have a smaller engine to move that vehicle around." Yannis Pitsiladis, BBC, 2019.
"giving trans women the disadvantage of having to power larger skeletal frames with reduced strength and aerobic capacity." Jamie Agapoff, 2025.
What happens when a trans-identifying male suppresses testosterone?
They lose a bit of muscle mass.
Their haemoglobin drops to female-typical levels.
The claim that won't die rests on the idea that trans-identifying males retain their skeletal frame and most of their muscle mass, but become unable to move it around a sports fields, rendering them "disadvantaged".
The words "underpowered" and therefore "disadvantaged" are carefully chosen, and typically leave the reader to infer that this means "underpowered" and therefore "disadvantaged" compared to females.
“Most of the studies used to ban transgender women so far are based on the performances of cisgender men, which scientists have argued is not an appropriate comparison.”
That’s me, @TLexercise and others.
“Others” including the ones moaning about not having their say. You know, the say they took for granted. The one they didn’t tell @nrarmour about.
Ever read their archery paper?
“Other studies have compared the performances of transgender women athletes with sedentary cisgender women, also argued as an inappropriate comparison.”
NGL, bit flummoxed here. Any ideas?
If you want inappropriate comparisons, try the Fat Bloke Study. Written by the scientists moaning about being excluded.
Nancy @nrarmour links to it. Fails to care that the reason why trans-identifying males can’t jump as high as the female comparators is that they are 20kg heavier, carrying way more fat, and are far less fit.
For disclosure, I have not been part of this IOC working group.
So the actual paper is fine. I’ve only skimmed, but it looks at gene expression between male and female humans and mice, to answer questions about the evolution of genes associated (or not) with sex.
The authors - who admit in peer review that these graphs exaggerate overlap - suggest in discussion that if one were to look at gene expression in, say, the skin from an individual within the overlap, you could not identify whether that individual was male or female.
It’s a high-level take on a more simple principle in this debate: overlapping height, and is a 5’8” individual male or female?
The authors use the same analogy in the introduction.
Even the ones who said it was “just a few”. They knew the scale.
Even the ones who said “you’re racist” as they fervently argued that black women are fundamentally different to white women. They knew the scale.
Also a poorly kept “secret” is that the majority of this cohort are 5ARD, where males can appear to be female at birth but have male-pattern athletic advantage.