I listened to the @lightcrypto episode of @UpOnlyTV. Ideas can become so powerful that they give the perception that no other timeline is possible. In crypto, ideas are particularly polarizing for many reasons. They become narratives that muscle out more moderate ones.

During the bull run, "Institutions buying in" was such a powerful narrative that it even blinded people from assuming that dips will ever happen, let alone bear markets.

Now, the predominant narrative by many is that "crypto is so overvalued that it has to return to or below true value". "retail got screwed and there won't be any new money flowing in".

Narrative flipped from 'fundamental value' to 'scams all along that bled plebs dry'.

He paints an extremely bearish picture. Watch for yourself on how bearish.

I can't help but think that is a textbook case of the same phenomenon that happened on way up. Both sound equally extreme and equally biased, despite his recurrent claim...

...that it is his lack of bias which led him to his conclusions.

I might not be as knowledgeable, but what I do know is that what most people get wrong is the 'when' and 'how'. This is why ranges are the most difficult conditions to 1. predict and 2. trade.

What happens is that the more it goes up, the more people think it will go up. Same on the way down.

This is precisely what leads people to continue being bearish in the immediate term at support levels or bullish at resistance levels, just because it fits their macro bias.

Listening to the podcast really made me feel dumb af. After all, he caught the absolute top of this bull run. But after further consideration, it really shouldn't have, because it really just sounded like an angry man shouting at the market using a lot of fancy terminology.
It's difficult to make for a case of up only from here, but the truth is that no one knows for certain what will happen and more importantly how.

This can range for months within a highly profitable range, and then ultimately break up or down.

So the moral of this TED talk is that I might not have caught the top, but perhaps being lower IQ is more suitable for extracting value out of these difficult trading conditions than polarizing, 300IQ grand theories.


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