Thread by @_johnbye

This is a disingenuous claim. Cases in England peaked a few days BEFORE the last stage of opening, and mobility data shows the biggest changes in people's behaviour came after Step 2 in April and Step 3 in May, since when average cases rose from under 2,000 to over 40,000 a day.

https://twitter.com/toadmeister/status/1419363362631204872

Visits to Retail & Recreation (covering everything from restaurants and non-essential shops to museums and theme parks) rose after Step 2 in April, as shops reopened and outdoor hospitality returned.

And again after Step 3 in May, when indoor entertainment reopened.

Usage of public transport follows a similar pattern - a rise at Step 2 in mid-April and another smaller, slower rise after Step 3 in mid-May.

As with recreation, there's little or no immediate change visible in people's behaviour in the first few days after Step 4 on July 19th.

And visits to workplaces actually FELL over the last month, as case numbers surged and (in the most recent week we have data for) over a million people were told to self-isolate by Test & Trace or the NHS Covid App.

Google Mobility Data can be found here:
google.com/covid19/mobili…

Meanwhile about one in six secondary school children and one in eight primary school children have been at home due to covid outbreaks as the school year limps to an end.

This in turn seems to have caused a big drop in regular lateral flow testing.

…e-education-statistics.service.gov.uk/find-statistic…

So the recent drop in cases is obviously good news, but the idea that it has anything to do with lifting restrictions .. 4 days later is clearly nonsense.

And the last stage of reopening in May let Delta run wild, resulting in 1,000,000 more cases and 1,000 more deaths, so far.