Thread by @IAmNickReynolds

As candidates are expected to head to New Jersey to meet with former President Trump this week, @ChuckForWyoming's campaign has released top-line numbers from a poll showing him as the primary bet to beat @Liz_Cheney in next year's primaries.

Some takeaways...

First, the pollster, John Mclaughlin, was previously enlisted to conduct a poll on behalf of Trump's super PAC. He has a fairly low lifetime rating of C/D, per FiveThirtyEight. That one previously found @AnthonyBouchard to be the favorite. trib.com/news/state-and…

Times have changed however. We have a lot of new candidates in the race. And lots of speculation about new challengers.

This one polled Ed Buchanan, who was being recruited by Club for Growth. wyofile.com/national-group…

It also polled @bobiteman, who is new to the rumor mill.

The main thing to note here: Cheney benefits from the crowded field. In a multi-candidate race, Cheney nets an estimated 23% of the vote, followed by

1) Gray (18%)
2) Bouchard (17%)
3) Smith (7%)
4 Buchanan (3%)
5) Biteman 2%

30% were undecided. And the MOE is nearly 6 points, which is a lot given how tight some of these results are.

In a three-way race featuring Gray, Cheney and Smith (an unusual list, given Bouchard is clearly the leading-fundraiser) Gray beats Cheney by just 2%. 39% undecided.

They also polled for Cheney's vote to impeach Trump, which turned in an overwhelming disapproval rating, which tracks with her estimated vote-getting here.

But McLaughlin doesn't share how the question was asked or phrased, so take that number for what it's worth.

The demographics do seem sound though. What say you, @BrianHarnisch?

@BrianHarnisch I do have questions though... Darin Smith performs extremely poorly in this poll, whether a three-person race or a five-person race.

He netted 15% in the 2016 primaries against Cheney (40%). That was a nine-way primary. And he's raised a lot more money this time around.

We also potentially have other candidates coming in, like Trump administration alum Catharine O'Neill, who were not polled. wyofile.com/gordon-lummis-…

Just very interested in the change between the Jan. McLaughlin poll (politico.com/f/?id=00000177…, see image below) and this month's.

Cheney actually improved two points, even as disapproval for impeachment increased five points.

Of course, this poll could be absolute nonsense. Here's the *very* top-line numbers from @AxiomStrategies, which was one of the few pollsters to call the 2016 race for Trump.

This one shows Darin Smith winning. Easily.

@AxiomStrategies This one polled far fewer candidates, and also presents interesting questions... namely, that most voters either like Smith or have no idea who he is, yet would still vote for him.

Chuck Gray also comes in last place in this poll with 14%, well outside of the McLaughlin MOE.

In the McLaughlin poll, Gray and Smith's results were flip-flopped. And the number of undecideds -- 39% -- were MUCH higher than the 25% here.

Brian with a good point here on the Gray poll.

https://twitter.com/BrianHarnisch/status/1420492048294203408

The Gray camp tried to predict turnout in media markets based on... what? The unprecedented turnout Wyoming saw in 2016? Or the record-breaking turnout in last year's presidential election? Can we repeat?

Responding to @AnthonyBouchard characterizing his poll as a "push poll" in a forum last week, @ChuckForWyoming said that was false, and they have released all their questions.

If they did... wasn't in the press release I saw. I just asked for them.

@AnthonyBouchard @ChuckForWyoming Got em. Initial questions are pretty generic. I would say when comparing the candidates, this isn't really a push poll.

@AnthonyBouchard @ChuckForWyoming Some of these questions and the order of them... probably a different story. Includes questions that question whether reaction to Jan. 6 was overblown.

@AnthonyBouchard @ChuckForWyoming This page really interested me. And more than half of the voters surveyed believe Liz Cheney to be a "liberal."