As candidates are expected to head to New Jersey to meet with former President Trump this week, @ChuckForWyoming's campaign has released top-line numbers from a poll showing him as the primary bet to beat @Liz_Cheney in next year's primaries.
Some takeaways...
First, the pollster, John Mclaughlin, was previously enlisted to conduct a poll on behalf of Trump's super PAC. He has a fairly low lifetime rating of C/D, per FiveThirtyEight. That one previously found @AnthonyBouchard to be the favorite. trib.com/news/state-and…
Times have changed however. We have a lot of new candidates in the race. And lots of speculation about new challengers.
30% were undecided. And the MOE is nearly 6 points, which is a lot given how tight some of these results are.
In a three-way race featuring Gray, Cheney and Smith (an unusual list, given Bouchard is clearly the leading-fundraiser) Gray beats Cheney by just 2%. 39% undecided.
They also polled for Cheney's vote to impeach Trump, which turned in an overwhelming disapproval rating, which tracks with her estimated vote-getting here.
But McLaughlin doesn't share how the question was asked or phrased, so take that number for what it's worth.
The demographics do seem sound though. What say you, @BrianHarnisch?
@BrianHarnisch I do have questions though... Darin Smith performs extremely poorly in this poll, whether a three-person race or a five-person race.
He netted 15% in the 2016 primaries against Cheney (40%). That was a nine-way primary. And he's raised a lot more money this time around.
We also potentially have other candidates coming in, like Trump administration alum Catharine O'Neill, who were not polled. wyofile.com/gordon-lummis-…
Just very interested in the change between the Jan. McLaughlin poll (politico.com/f/?id=00000177…, see image below) and this month's.
Cheney actually improved two points, even as disapproval for impeachment increased five points.
Of course, this poll could be absolute nonsense. Here's the *very* top-line numbers from @AxiomStrategies, which was one of the few pollsters to call the 2016 race for Trump.
This one shows Darin Smith winning. Easily.
@AxiomStrategies This one polled far fewer candidates, and also presents interesting questions... namely, that most voters either like Smith or have no idea who he is, yet would still vote for him.
Chuck Gray also comes in last place in this poll with 14%, well outside of the McLaughlin MOE.
In the McLaughlin poll, Gray and Smith's results were flip-flopped. And the number of undecideds -- 39% -- were MUCH higher than the 25% here.
The Gray camp tried to predict turnout in media markets based on... what? The unprecedented turnout Wyoming saw in 2016? Or the record-breaking turnout in last year's presidential election? Can we repeat?
Responding to @AnthonyBouchard characterizing his poll as a "push poll" in a forum last week, @ChuckForWyoming said that was false, and they have released all their questions.
If they did... wasn't in the press release I saw. I just asked for them.
@AnthonyBouchard@ChuckForWyoming Got em. Initial questions are pretty generic. I would say when comparing the candidates, this isn't really a push poll.
@AnthonyBouchard@ChuckForWyoming Some of these questions and the order of them... probably a different story. Includes questions that question whether reaction to Jan. 6 was overblown.
@AnthonyBouchard@ChuckForWyoming This page really interested me. And more than half of the voters surveyed believe Liz Cheney to be a "liberal."
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I have arrived in Myrtle Beach, where I will focus on the SC-07 Primary to unseat incumbent Republican Tom Rice, one of ten Republicans to impeach Trump for his role in Jan. 6.
A quick thread of the things I'm watching tonight in this one:
First off, SC-07 is very red.
Trump carried the district with 59 percent of the vote, and the low watermark for the party under the 2010 district lines was still 54.5 percent for Romney in 2012.
What's important to note, however, is most of the power lies in one county.
In 2020, nearly 119,000 people in Horry County voted for Trump, good for about 66% of the vote.
That's more than Trump got in all of the other counties in the district COMBINED, even when I throw in every Trump voter in Florence County, only part of which is in SC-07. (106k)
That said I actually am able to reach downtown Denver quicker by car than I can reaching Brooklyn from either airport by Uber, so this take is a bit, eh.
One fun thing about flying out of DIA as a Wyomingite was the journey.
A 4-hour journey across an epic landscape, endless plains to your left, mountains to your right. A horrific parking experience. A shuttle to the airport. Then, a train from security to the terminal. Epic.
Back at the South Carolina Democratic Party Convention this morning. Speakers today have included Joe Cunningham, Mia McLeod, Gilda Cobb-Hunter, Jim Clyburn. Hearing from candidates now.
Catherine Fleming Bruce -- a longshot candidate against Tim Scott this fall -- says this year is unlike any other, evoking memories of Jan. 6.
"What is the price of a failed democracy?" she asks the crowd.
Krystle Matthews, the likely frontrunner in the Democratic US Senate Primary here, asks whether we're wrapped up with "being important." Unseated a 10-year incumbent with just over $700 in the bank.
"You can either be pitiful, or you can be powerful. But you can't be both."
The first debate of the SC-07 Republican primary is about to get underway in Florence. Stream here: wmbfnews.com/page/7th-congr…
Tom Rice, one of ten Republicans to impeach Trump, is facing four opponents. One person in the crowd yelled "Tom Rice is a traitor" as he arrived onstage.
.@RussellFrySC is considered Rice's chief opponent in the race, with the second-largest war chest and an endorsement from former President, Donald Trump.
Others include @GarrettBartonSC, Ken Richardson, and Barbara Arthur.
While waiting for broadcast to start, Rice asks the crowd to clap for Francis Marion University for hosting, as well as themselves for "participating in the democratic process."
The moderator asks if he wants to lop that off his three minute intro, to some sarcastic applause.
Floor debate now starting on the medical marijuana bill.
Rep. John McCravy, R-Greenwood, will be leading opposition on the bill. He is now arguing that based under Supreme Court precedent, this "revenue-raising bill" should have originated in the House, and should be invalid.
He cited a 2015 AG's opinion, which sought to raise fuel taxes for road repairs. scag.gov/wp-content/upl…
However, State v. Stanley found that the provision only counts the levying of taxes. Medical marijuana's tax would only be an incidental tax increase.
That point was made by Rep. Bill Herbkersman and corroborated by Rep. Todd Rutherford, who just moved to recess for lunch.
Looks like they'll be back with a verdict on this one at 1:30 p.m.