Plotting the lineage percentages of new sequences each day over the past 6 months. Visualized using covidcg.org@CovidCg
Red = Alpha variant
Dark blue (outlined) = Delta variant
@CovidCg Under the blue wave of Delta which was first detected in the USA in Feb 2021, there is a green sliver indicating the newer AY.3 sublineage of Delta.
This means that almost all of the most recent USA sequences on the GISAID database are Delta.
New lineage percentages by day over the past 6 months.
Red = Alpha
Dark blue = Delta
Light blue = lineage R.1 (no greek letter)
@CovidCg Similar plots for India, same data from the past 6 months visualized two ways.
Left: new lineage % per day
Right: new lineage counts per day
Red = Alpha (B.1.1.7)
Pink = Kappa (B.1.617.1)
Dark blue = Delta (B.1.617.2) covidcg.org@CovidCg
@CovidCg Plots for Singapore.
Red = Alpha; Blue = Delta
Importantly, these numbers do not reflect actual case counts in each country.
The data plotted show the sequences from each country collected and shared with the GISAID database.
@CovidCg On the covidcg.org homepage you can track SARS-CoV-2 sequencing and sharing efforts by country.
Some of the countries sequencing many of their cases relative to case count are selected and shown here (dark blue bubbles).
@CovidCg The covidcg.org homepage also shows the rise and fall of lineages (variants) in each continent.
Right now the Delta is rising everywhere, but in South America, the Gamma (P.1) is still more prevalent.
@CovidCg For Canada, due to sampling pattern, it's better imo to split it into its provinces.
Let's start with Alberta. Covidcg.org allows users to select lineages of interest. For example, Gamma is shown in blue in one plot, and Alpha is shown in red in the next plot.
@CovidCg Not sure what happened to British Columbia, Canada but the last sequences shared with GISAID were collected on May 12, 2021.
Blue = Gamma (P.1)
Red = B.1.438.1
Pink (bottom, outlined) = B.1.2
Sliver of pink in the middle = Kappa (B.1.617.1)
@CovidCg Ontario has a strange sampling pattern where, if this is accurate, all sample sequences shared were collected from patients on the last day of each month. The sheer number of sequences shared by Ontario each month makes it better imo to analyze each Canadian province separately.
@CovidCg Another way to compare the Canadian provinces is using the Compare Locations feature in covidcg.org
Here the new Delta % per week is plotted for each province. In other words, each point shows what % of the virus sequences are Delta that week for each province.
@CovidCg The same plot for the seven US states with the most sequences shared on GISAID.
The % of SARS-CoV-2 sequences that are Delta each week is steadily rising across the board.
@CovidCg A similar plot for the same 7 states but this time showing the % of sequences that are Alpha over the past 6 months.
@CovidCg Another plot of the % of sequences that are from the B.1.2 lineage over the past 6 months.
B.1.2 used to be quite prevalent in some US states but was overtaken by Alpha, which has now been overtaken by Delta.
Going to stop with the rainbow plots for today.
The amazing thing is that covidcg.org@covidcg was built by and is actively maintained by only 2.5 (2 full-time, 1 part-time) brilliant & diligent individuals, leveraging data shared with GISAID. covidcg.org/?tab=acknowled…
@CovidCg The website's first year anniversary is coming up on Aug 26, 2021 and we'll have some super new features released by then.
No punches pulled piece on #OriginOfCovid by @ianbirrell
"The pandemic revealed the arrogant and contemptuous behaviour of leading scientific figures, aided by prominent academic journals, patsy journalists and weak politicians." unherd.com/2025/01/chinas…
@ianbirrell I suggest one correction @ianbirrell please replace 'despite' with 'because of':
WHO "hired Sir Jeremy Farrar, despite the former Wellcome Trust boss’s exposure as a central player in... branding any suggestions Covid could have come from a laboratory as conspiracy theory."
@ianbirrell On Feb 19, 2020, the authors of Proximal Origin realized that Jeremy Farrar - who had convened them and led their efforts - had signed the Lancet letter by Daszak condemning all lab #OriginOfCovid as conspiracy theories.
5 years ago, the authors of Proximal Origin wondered where the pandemic virus had been transmitting *intensely* so that it gained a furin cleavage site and passed it on.
One said, "No way the selection could occur in the market. Too low a density of mammals." #OriginOfCovid
Until today, there has been no reported sign of intense transmission of the virus in animals prior to the detected outbreak in Wuhan.
Investigators, including one Proximal Origin author, searched fur farms in China - no sign of any SARS-like virus. nature.com/articles/s4158…
On the other hand, a 2018 research proposal surfaced, showing Wuhan and US scientists with a plan to insert novel furin cleavage sites into novel SARS-like viruses. theintercept.com/2021/09/23/cor…
"5% chance that H5N1 starts a sustained pandemic in humans in the next year. 50% chance that H5N1 starts a sustained pandemic in humans in the next twenty years..."
@slatestarcodex In addition, under the new US gov policy on research that enhances the pandemic potential of pathogens, it will be the funding recipient (not the funder) who is responsible for flagging their own federally funded projects for review. liebertpub.com/doi/abs/10.108…
Peter Daszak, who partnered with the Wuhan lab that likely caused the pandemic and is being debarred by HHS, continues to chair @NASEM_Health's forum on microbial threats.
@NASEM_Health @theNASEM The event disclaimer and website make no mention of Daszak's involvement in this event or any conflicts of interest.
@NASEM_Health @theNASEM This echoes Daszak's behind-the-scenes coordination of the infamous letter in @TheLancet casting lab #OriginOfCovid as a conspiracy theory without disclosing his conflicts of interest.
In 2020, leading virologists deceived a @nytimes journalist, resulting in NYT dropping the lab leak hypothesis.
Years later, these virologists continue to deny their perfidy while attacking experts like @sigridbratlie who call out their deception. telegraph.co.uk/us/news/2024/0…
@nytimes @sigridbratlie At the @USFHealth Covid meeting, natural #OriginOfCovid proponents exalted one of these virologists.
Thankfully @ewinsberg read out the slack messages of these virologists which completely contrasted with their public stance.
@nytimes @sigridbratlie @USFHealth @ewinsberg Some consider the lies of leading virologists as indirect evidence for a lab #OriginOfCovid e.g. see the end of this anonymous analysis on youtube.
Why are some smart virologists making so many claims they should know are false?
I gave a 15min talk on a likely laboratory #OriginOfCovid at @USFHealth's @HdxAcademy meeting on hotly debated Covid topics earlier this month. The exchange with natural origin proponents and Q&A are worth watching. The recording is available now: digitalcommons.usf.edu/usfcovid/2024/…
@USFHealth @HdxAcademy The meeting covered other topics including lockdowns, vaccines, and public health messaging. I left the meeting with my mind changed on one topic - a sign of high quality scientific exchanges on issues that remain unresolved.
@USFHealth @HdxAcademy Several talks recalled the panic in the early days of the pandemic, especially in hospitals overwhelmed by covid cases. In crisis, public health decisions & messaging were often developed in echo chambers and not based on science.