Alina Chan Profile picture
Jul 29, 2021 16 tweets 12 min read Read on X
A picture of SARS-CoV-2 variants in the USA.

Plotting the lineage percentages of new sequences each day over the past 6 months. Visualized using covidcg.org @CovidCg

Red = Alpha variant
Dark blue (outlined) = Delta variant
@CovidCg Under the blue wave of Delta which was first detected in the USA in Feb 2021, there is a green sliver indicating the newer AY.3 sublineage of Delta.

This means that almost all of the most recent USA sequences on the GISAID database are Delta.
@CovidCg The same type of plot for Japan visualized on covidcg.org @CovidCg

New lineage percentages by day over the past 6 months.

Red = Alpha
Dark blue = Delta
Light blue = lineage R.1 (no greek letter)
@CovidCg Similar plots for India, same data from the past 6 months visualized two ways.

Left: new lineage % per day
Right: new lineage counts per day

Red = Alpha (B.1.1.7)
Pink = Kappa (B.1.617.1)
Dark blue = Delta (B.1.617.2)
covidcg.org @CovidCg
@CovidCg Plots for Singapore.
Red = Alpha; Blue = Delta

Importantly, these numbers do not reflect actual case counts in each country.

The data plotted show the sequences from each country collected and shared with the GISAID database.
@CovidCg On the covidcg.org homepage you can track SARS-CoV-2 sequencing and sharing efforts by country.

Some of the countries sequencing many of their cases relative to case count are selected and shown here (dark blue bubbles).
@CovidCg The covidcg.org homepage also shows the rise and fall of lineages (variants) in each continent.

Right now the Delta is rising everywhere, but in South America, the Gamma (P.1) is still more prevalent.
@CovidCg For Canada, due to sampling pattern, it's better imo to split it into its provinces.

Let's start with Alberta. Covidcg.org allows users to select lineages of interest. For example, Gamma is shown in blue in one plot, and Alpha is shown in red in the next plot.
@CovidCg Not sure what happened to British Columbia, Canada but the last sequences shared with GISAID were collected on May 12, 2021.

Blue = Gamma (P.1)
Red = B.1.438.1
Pink (bottom, outlined) = B.1.2
Sliver of pink in the middle = Kappa (B.1.617.1)
@CovidCg Ontario has a strange sampling pattern where, if this is accurate, all sample sequences shared were collected from patients on the last day of each month. The sheer number of sequences shared by Ontario each month makes it better imo to analyze each Canadian province separately.
@CovidCg Another way to compare the Canadian provinces is using the Compare Locations feature in covidcg.org

Here the new Delta % per week is plotted for each province. In other words, each point shows what % of the virus sequences are Delta that week for each province.
@CovidCg The same plot for the seven US states with the most sequences shared on GISAID.

The % of SARS-CoV-2 sequences that are Delta each week is steadily rising across the board.

Visualized on covidcg.org
@CovidCg A similar plot for the same 7 states but this time showing the % of sequences that are Alpha over the past 6 months.
@CovidCg Another plot of the % of sequences that are from the B.1.2 lineage over the past 6 months.

B.1.2 used to be quite prevalent in some US states but was overtaken by Alpha, which has now been overtaken by Delta.
Going to stop with the rainbow plots for today.

The amazing thing is that covidcg.org @covidcg was built by and is actively maintained by only 2.5 (2 full-time, 1 part-time) brilliant & diligent individuals, leveraging data shared with GISAID.
covidcg.org/?tab=acknowled…
@CovidCg The website's first year anniversary is coming up on Aug 26, 2021 and we'll have some super new features released by then.

For more info about this public resource, please see our @eLife publication that was released this February.
elifesciences.org/articles/63409

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More from @Ayjchan

Dec 23
Peter Daszak, who partnered with the Wuhan lab that likely caused the pandemic and is being debarred by HHS, continues to chair @NASEM_Health's forum on microbial threats.

Daszak's forum is hosting @theNASEM workshop on the future emergence of pathogens.
nationalacademies.org/event/43921_01…
@NASEM_Health @theNASEM The event disclaimer and website make no mention of Daszak's involvement in this event or any conflicts of interest. Image
@NASEM_Health @theNASEM This echoes Daszak's behind-the-scenes coordination of the infamous letter in @TheLancet casting lab #OriginOfCovid as a conspiracy theory without disclosing his conflicts of interest.

Read the story about this letter in @theintercept
theintercept.com/2021/09/23/cor…
Read 7 tweets
Dec 22
In 2020, leading virologists deceived a @nytimes journalist, resulting in NYT dropping the lab leak hypothesis.

Years later, these virologists continue to deny their perfidy while attacking experts like @sigridbratlie who call out their deception.
telegraph.co.uk/us/news/2024/0…
@nytimes @sigridbratlie At the @USFHealth Covid meeting, natural #OriginOfCovid proponents exalted one of these virologists.

Thankfully @ewinsberg read out the slack messages of these virologists which completely contrasted with their public stance.
@nytimes @sigridbratlie @USFHealth @ewinsberg Some consider the lies of leading virologists as indirect evidence for a lab #OriginOfCovid e.g. see the end of this anonymous analysis on youtube.

Why are some smart virologists making so many claims they should know are false?
Read 6 tweets
Dec 22
I gave a 15min talk on a likely laboratory #OriginOfCovid at @USFHealth's @HdxAcademy meeting on hotly debated Covid topics earlier this month. The exchange with natural origin proponents and Q&A are worth watching. The recording is available now: digitalcommons.usf.edu/usfcovid/2024/…
@USFHealth @HdxAcademy The meeting covered other topics including lockdowns, vaccines, and public health messaging. I left the meeting with my mind changed on one topic - a sign of high quality scientific exchanges on issues that remain unresolved.
@USFHealth @HdxAcademy Several talks recalled the panic in the early days of the pandemic, especially in hospitals overwhelmed by covid cases. In crisis, public health decisions & messaging were often developed in echo chambers and not based on science.
Read 9 tweets
Nov 27
National Academy of Sciences president @Marcia4Science says "NAS stands ready, as it always has, to advise the incoming administration."

How does @theNASciences plan to advise the new gov on #OriginOfCovid and research that can start pandemics?
science.org/doi/10.1126/sc…
@Marcia4Science @theNASciences In Feb 2020, @theNASEM convened 3 of the most highly conflicted experts to advise the US gov on #OriginOfCovid

They were Peter Daszak & Ralph Baric who collaborated with the Wuhan lab, and Kristian Andersen who published Proximal Origin. nationalacademies.org/news/2020/02/n…
@Marcia4Science @theNASciences @theNASEM What reassurance do we have now that @theNASEM @theNASciences are capable of convening experts without glaring conflicts of interest to advise the incoming administration on scientific issues?
Read 6 tweets
Sep 15
Accidentally swore and got bleeped on my live interview with On Point @MeghnaWBUR while discussing why lab #OriginOfCovid must be investigated and why scientists must not lie or obfuscate the truth for political reasons.
wbur.org/onpoint/2024/0…
@MeghnaWBUR Meghna did an excellent job putting the arguments of natural #OriginOfCovid proponents to me so I could refute them directly in the interview.

The scientific evidence does not support a double spillover of the virus at the Wuhan market.
@MeghnaWBUR Those who condemn platforming the lab #OriginOfCovid hypothesis refuse to participate in a joint interview with me.

They say it's because they do not want to legitimize a lab origin but I believe it's because their arguments cannot withstand informed scrutiny.
Read 6 tweets
Jun 19
I respect Dr Fauci's decades of service in gov. Being in charge during a pandemic is no small challenge & no one can lead for so long without making mistakes. However, it needs to be said that Dr Fauci has not surrounded himself with wise & honest people regarding #OriginOfCovid
These are the virologists & experts he trusted on #OriginOfCovid

In their private messages in early 2020, they mocked other virologists for not being able to predict their own lab leaks & misled a @nytimes journalist asking about a potential lab origin.
These experts published an influential letter 'The Proximal Origin of SARS-CoV-2' that was used widely to shut down questions about a lab leak.

In private, they wrote that evidence against a lab leak was not strong and speculated on genetic engineering.
wsj.com/articles/the-c…
Read 10 tweets

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