Alina Chan Profile picture
Jul 29, 2021 16 tweets 12 min read Read on X
A picture of SARS-CoV-2 variants in the USA.

Plotting the lineage percentages of new sequences each day over the past 6 months. Visualized using covidcg.org @CovidCg

Red = Alpha variant
Dark blue (outlined) = Delta variant
@CovidCg Under the blue wave of Delta which was first detected in the USA in Feb 2021, there is a green sliver indicating the newer AY.3 sublineage of Delta.

This means that almost all of the most recent USA sequences on the GISAID database are Delta.
@CovidCg The same type of plot for Japan visualized on covidcg.org @CovidCg

New lineage percentages by day over the past 6 months.

Red = Alpha
Dark blue = Delta
Light blue = lineage R.1 (no greek letter)
@CovidCg Similar plots for India, same data from the past 6 months visualized two ways.

Left: new lineage % per day
Right: new lineage counts per day

Red = Alpha (B.1.1.7)
Pink = Kappa (B.1.617.1)
Dark blue = Delta (B.1.617.2)
covidcg.org @CovidCg
@CovidCg Plots for Singapore.
Red = Alpha; Blue = Delta

Importantly, these numbers do not reflect actual case counts in each country.

The data plotted show the sequences from each country collected and shared with the GISAID database.
@CovidCg On the covidcg.org homepage you can track SARS-CoV-2 sequencing and sharing efforts by country.

Some of the countries sequencing many of their cases relative to case count are selected and shown here (dark blue bubbles).
@CovidCg The covidcg.org homepage also shows the rise and fall of lineages (variants) in each continent.

Right now the Delta is rising everywhere, but in South America, the Gamma (P.1) is still more prevalent.
@CovidCg For Canada, due to sampling pattern, it's better imo to split it into its provinces.

Let's start with Alberta. Covidcg.org allows users to select lineages of interest. For example, Gamma is shown in blue in one plot, and Alpha is shown in red in the next plot.
@CovidCg Not sure what happened to British Columbia, Canada but the last sequences shared with GISAID were collected on May 12, 2021.

Blue = Gamma (P.1)
Red = B.1.438.1
Pink (bottom, outlined) = B.1.2
Sliver of pink in the middle = Kappa (B.1.617.1)
@CovidCg Ontario has a strange sampling pattern where, if this is accurate, all sample sequences shared were collected from patients on the last day of each month. The sheer number of sequences shared by Ontario each month makes it better imo to analyze each Canadian province separately.
@CovidCg Another way to compare the Canadian provinces is using the Compare Locations feature in covidcg.org

Here the new Delta % per week is plotted for each province. In other words, each point shows what % of the virus sequences are Delta that week for each province.
@CovidCg The same plot for the seven US states with the most sequences shared on GISAID.

The % of SARS-CoV-2 sequences that are Delta each week is steadily rising across the board.

Visualized on covidcg.org
@CovidCg A similar plot for the same 7 states but this time showing the % of sequences that are Alpha over the past 6 months.
@CovidCg Another plot of the % of sequences that are from the B.1.2 lineage over the past 6 months.

B.1.2 used to be quite prevalent in some US states but was overtaken by Alpha, which has now been overtaken by Delta.
Going to stop with the rainbow plots for today.

The amazing thing is that covidcg.org @covidcg was built by and is actively maintained by only 2.5 (2 full-time, 1 part-time) brilliant & diligent individuals, leveraging data shared with GISAID.
covidcg.org/?tab=acknowled…
@CovidCg The website's first year anniversary is coming up on Aug 26, 2021 and we'll have some super new features released by then.

For more info about this public resource, please see our @eLife publication that was released this February.
elifesciences.org/articles/63409

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More from @Ayjchan

May 14
New York🇺🇸-based MV Hondius cruise passenger who disembarked on Apr 24 went to a Hanoi🇻🇳 conference last week for extreme travelers (150 guests who've visited 100+ countries), potentially passing through Hong Kong🇨🇳 Bangkok🇹🇭. Her current location is unknown @JSweetLI reports...
@JSweetLI ... previous hantavirus outbreaks didn't have this kind of opportunity to race around the world.

"MV Hondius is a pricey, adventurous expedition—costing passengers between $8,500 to $17,000—and so it attracted world travelers crossing bucket list sights"
jacquelinesweet.substack.com/p/a-second-wom…
@JSweetLI Hantavirus-exposed cruise passengers going on world tour are not breaking any laws. @WHO had said they were low-risk contacts, only changing to high-risk around May 9 or 10.
Read 18 tweets
May 13
Some question the motivations of the whistleblower this morning.

His testimony can be checked by looking at names of experts recommended by Fauci to IC, the 2022 CIA report & 2023 report before it was changed overnight, and a redacted form of the 2,000-page classified report.
The 2022 and 2023 CIA reports on Covid origins should not be especially difficult to obtain since John Ratcliffe is the current CIA director.
If Fauci recommended the Proximal Origin authors to multiple intel agencies, this will not be difficult for Senators to verify as well.
Read 11 tweets
May 12
From the 2018 Andes strain hantavirus outbreak:

One patient did not have physical contact and simply said "hello" to the infected person as they crossed paths at a birthday party.

2 patients sat at different tables separated by 1-2m from the infected person. Image
This info was in the supplementary appendix of the @NEJM study describing the cases.
nejm.org/doi/suppl/10.1…
@NEJM Not saying the Andes hantavirus is as transmissible as covid or measles.

But a virus doesn't have to be that transmissible to cause a pandemic. HIV caused a pandemic without being spread through the air.
Read 11 tweets
May 11
The 16 US passengers from the hantavirus cruise can choose to isolate at home for the next 8 weeks?

Do they all live alone in single family houses? Are they allowed to have people over to care for them & clean their homes?
Although not specific to the Andes strain, the scientific literature shows hantaviruses often cause severe illness in children and can be fatal.

Why are we taking this risk of transmission to family members in the US?

1 child fatality is too many.
US passengers who previously disembarked the ship are being monitored in Arizona, California, Georgia, Texas and Virginia.

Will an updated list of affected states be published once the new group of US passengers leave the quarantine facility to self-isolate at home?
Read 12 tweets
Apr 28
Senior advisor to Anthony Fauci finally charged for concealing federal records following a criminal referral from former House COVID Subcommittee Chairman Brad Wenstrup.

“I can either send stuff to Tony on his private Gmail [sic], or hand it to him at work or at his house,” Morens wrote in one April 21, 2021, email. “He is too smart to let colleagues send him stuff that could cause trouble.”
"Information in the indictment indicates the co-conspirators are Dr. Peter Daszak, the president of Manhattan-based non-profit EcoHealth Alliance, and Dr. Gerald Keusch, an associate director of Boston University’s National Emerging Infectious Disease Laboratory..."
In 2023 emails shared by @gdemaneuf, Daszak of EcoHealth Alliance and Gerald Keusch from Boston's high containment pathogen lab conspired to recruit prominent friends to push back on calls for increased oversight of research that can kill millions of people.

David Morens (the above charged senior advisor to Fauci) and Peter Hotez are cc'ed on these emails.Image
Read 12 tweets
Mar 13
Listened to 'Privatizing the Apocalypse', a conversation on the dangers of virus hunting & pandemic resurrection between @Rob_Reid & Sam Harris @MakingSenseHQ

The number of people capable of causing pandemics is growing. Governments are not tracking & regulating this research.
One point I appreciated in their discussion was that a virus doesn't need to be 100% lethal to upend society.

It just has to be lethal enough that essential workers decide they won't go out and expose themselves and their loved ones to death.
Read 6 tweets

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