Thread by @chrisvanderveen

THREAD

Prepare yourself for what's to come...

Seriously...

Things are gonna look a little dark in the coming weeks.

Not that you need to panic.

Why?

I'm going to walk you through what you need to know.

#COVID19Colorado

1/

First of all...

Prepare yourself now for the inevitable national news media freakout that's coming.

Because it's coming

Cases are on the rise all over the US. Media outlets more interested in clicks will attempt to capitalize on that.

Don't fall for it.

2/

Yes, rising case counts are concerning.

But it's a story that begs for context...

What kind of context? Welp, look at the UK for example.

UK just went through a BIG case spike. How big? Nearly as big as winter spike

(thanks @nytimes)

3/

But look at what's happened in the UK when it comes to hospitalizations.

Appears to have just peaked... at a MUCH LOWER number than previous winter peak

How much lower?

This peak is 20% of previous

4/

But hold on, you say. Don't hospitalizations lag?

Yes, they do... by a few weeks... but we're already seeing a concrete example that the UK patient peak is just beginning to turn

5/
news.yahoo.com/covid-patients…

To review... in the UK cases SPIKED... big time...

but patient counts didn't...

Why?

Well, you already know the answer to that...

6/

So, if US follows UK path here... yes... a lot of people will get sick... but a lot of people won't end up getting so sick that they end up in hospital

that's the goalpost... has been since the start

BUT... there's one big caveat... (and something you can monitor yourself)

7/

FLORIDA

Yep...

FLORIDA...

Watch what's happening there closely.

Cases are going up...BUT SO ARE HOSPITALIZATIONS

That's not great news.

8/

Why is Florida having such a problem?

Well, vaccination rate isn't great, but it's about middle of the road in the US

(thanks @MayoClinic)

Other states are doing much worse

So, yes, vaccination rate has something to do with this, but it's likely answer is more complicated

9/

But let's compare Florida with Colorado.

Here we are seeing a decent case rise (doubled in about a month and a half)

(still QUITE LOW... see below)

10/

But we have yet to see any substantive rise in hospitalizations.

If it stays this way, we're in ok shape

(Again, not suggesting that COVID infection comes w/o consequence)

11/

Bottom line...

This is why I will be paying close attention to HOSPITALIZATIONS and less attention to CASES

I would recommend you do the same.

I'm telling you... the national news freakout is coming...

Don't get sucked in

12/

You want this upcoming case spike to look like the UK's

(and you don't want it to look like Florida's right now)

Don't let the inevitable CASES ARE RISING freakout get you freaked out.

You should demand context.

Context is key

FIN