This is a thread on finding successful trades - example provided!
I cover - 1. What a good technical set up is, 2. Setting an entry, and 3. Setting a target.
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2/
What technical set up is likely to work?
We're looking for ONLY one thing - time frame continuity. This means that the higher time frames should be in your favor when taking a trade.
i.e. the day, week, and month are all green if bullish or red if bearish.
3/
Ex: $CCIV / $LCID from my 6/28 - 7/2 watchlist.
My thesis = bullish. Why?
The month was bright green in June (bottom right chart).
The options flow via @unusual_whales was also bullish.
Once we know the chart and options flow are both in our favor, we then plan the trade.
4/
When to enter the trade?
When the price crosses the previous week's high. Why? The new WEEK will then be GREEN, and in CONTINUITY with the MONTH.
i.e. we enter the trade on the DAY (small time frame), the WEEK and MONTH are both green (large time frames).
5/
When to exit the trade?
Since our entry is based on the weekly time frame, our exit will be based on it as well.
The weekly chart on the right shows the entry in blue, and target in red.
Entry = above previous week's high
Target = next "high" price
6/
The result?
$CCIV / $LCID was up +13% that week, and the options had great returns.
The principles outlined apply to ALL time frames. If you day-trade, ensure the hourly, daily, and weekly are in continuity instead of focusing on the monthly.
Time frame continuity is key!
7/
Is there a part you didn't understand or want more clarity on?
Comment or vote below. I'll provide more information on the topic.
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What is it? How do you spot it? How do you use it?
This will help you understand where price wants to go.
Let's dive in.
What is it?
1. Liquidity is resting buy and sell orders in the marketplace.
2. These orders reside in the form of -
> Buyside liquidity (commonly thought of as resistance), and
> Sellside liquidity (commonly thought of as support).
How do you spot buyside liquidity?
1. Buyside liquidity resides at relative equal highs or swing highs.
2. A swing high is a 3 candle pattern where the middle candle has a lower high on each side of it.
173.33c 12/16
Size > OI = new position being opened
$13M in premium
FOMC tomorrow - size accordingly if swinging these or wait until it's over to tail this whale.
These contracts have high premium. In order to minimize risk from theta and premium decay, consider making this position a debit spread.
If you're following this $TSLA whale, go in with small size. It's been very weak relative to the market recently. It isn't even at HOD right now despite SPY / QQQ being there. Just seems like a whale betting on a short-term bounce.
317.5c 12/16
Size > OI = new position being opened
$450k+ in premium
These $HD contracts are very expensive. Instead of following the whale in with naked puts, consider making this a debit spread to reduce downside risk and minimize the capital required to open a position.