The IPCC report is coming out tomorrow. As a climate scientist, I’d like you to know: I don’t have hope.
I have something better: certainty.
We know exactly what’s causing climate change. We can absolutely 1) avoid the worst and 2) build a better world in the process.
Tomorrow, if you live in a democracy, please call your representatives and tell them how much a livable climate matters to you. If you’re in the US, you can call the Senate at (202) 224-3121
I understand the frustration. I get the despair and the anxiety. No one is saying this is going to be easy. But it is possible. The biggest uncertainty by FAR in climate projections is what humans we’ll do. Let’s get to work.
This will be replied to and quote-tweeted with so much cynicism, misanthropy, and negativity. Please remember: giving up helps no one but those invested in delay and denial. I refuse to subscribe to a lie they promote.
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I think we’ll be talking about climate a lot over the next few years. I started making a list of podcasts, websites, and other resources that I personally trust and learn from marvelclimate.com/#6
Q: If ECS is, say, 3C, does that mean we have no chance of avoiding the 1.5C or 2C targets?
A: No! ECS is the climate response to doubling CO2 from preindustrial levels (560ppm). We're at 416ppm now. We can stop before we get there!
Q: Why don't we know this number exactly?
A: As the planet warms, stuff changes- clouds, ice, water vapor, etc. And these changes "feed back" onto the temperature, speeding up or slowing down the warming. It's a very complex system!
We’ve understood the physics of greenhouse gases since the 1820s, had experimental proof since the 1860s, and known ⬆️ CO2 = ⬆️ temperature since 1896 rsc.org/images/Arrheni…
We know climate is influenced by the sun, volcanoes, Earth’s orbit, and natural variability. None of these can explain the long-term warming trend bloomberg.com/graphics/2015-…