How to accumulate more #Bitcoin/#Monero over the mid and long term, than you otherwise would simply by buying and holding, utilizing crypto cycles (not day trading).

A ‘Number-go-Up’ (#NgU) thread👇
1/ I don’t know about you, but my life goal is to exit the rat race or traditional 9 to 5 and to have freedom over my time. This would mean dedicating my free time to family and things I love such as travel, writing, my yoga practice…
2/ The goal is to get there as fast as possible, rather than waiting for a certain price target on my fave coin, for example “when BTC reaches $100k … I will…”
Nope. A million things could happen along the way, regulation imo still being the greatest risk facing our ecosystem.
3/ If you have charted out your financial goals as owning “X” number of Bitcoin (and for many of my privacy enthusiasts “X” number of Monero) in 10 years (or more) from today, and you are ready to take on some calculated risk to achieve this, then this thread is for you.
4/ As a Yogini, I learned years ago that the world must be accepted as it is. Trying to change things, people or situations is pointless & leads to unhappiness. You only ever have control over your own actions, & directing your actions towards your goals is what brings happiness.
5/ For better or worse, crypto markets are what they are. Accept it, avoid being that person who gets angry bc BTC dominance declined, or you perceive other coins eating into your lunch. Don’t be that person who spends most of their time online bitching at other projects.
6/ Learning to benefit from an existing situation and profiting from it is the hallmark of a successful investor. This lesson goes much deeper, beyond crypto markets, and applies to almost everything in life. So lesson #1: develop acceptance.
7/ Crypto markets are imperfect; overvalued traps, rugpulls and scams abound ie. it is the wild west of the financial world. But this ecosystem is creating generational wealth for many. I am amazed by the number of people I come across who are simply doing the buy-and-hold thing.
8/ There are more ways than one to invest and grow in crypto. Consider the fact that, being a brand new asset class means that majority of the world’s investment $$ have not yet entered the ecosystem. I personally know tons of people waiting to get in but still figuring out how.
9/ This brings me to lesson #2: keep an open mind. Today crypto is at a $2T market cap. By 2030, we will witness the rise of DEXs, DAOs, stablecoins, NFTs, DeFi/smart contracts, and ofcourse cryptocurrency as a payment mechanism & SoV, with a combined potential market cap of $10T
10/ Those who follow me already know, I don’t take a coin very seriously until they prove their raison d’etre *today*. If a coin *will do* something in the future, its just a promise and promises can’t be priced in. However, markets are not made up of rational actors.
11/ This is a diverse ecosystem. The saying goes: 'In crypto, all projects are guilty, until proven innocent.' I'm not saying blindly go into the latest DeFi craze. The most important thing to remember is DYOR. Lesson #3: do lots of research.
12/ Crypto assets can’t be easily valued in the traditional sense, using discounted cash flows, comparable multiples, or traditional valuation metrics. So how are these assets priced? To a good extent, by the celebrity status of its founders and their tech/crypto reputation.
13/ So we’re pricing assets based on the likelihood (or not) of these tokens/coins getting rugpulled, on the partnerships they get into, agreements signed, and any novel technology they are working on incorporating into their blockchain.
14/ PoW projects must show a reasonable level of decentralization of its distributed ledger, miner stats, reliability of blockchain, etc. PoS projects go more by their founders’ reputation, funding raised, and their ability to provide stable staking rewards.
15/ With all of that said, lets dive into my point here, which is very simple. If you can perform basic investment calculations, know your way around coin custody, etc, you can significantly increase the amount of wealth you desire to own, in lets say Bitcoin.
16/ I’ll show you this trick with a simple calculation using Cardano ($ADA). ADA is it is a speculative, relatively centralized PoS blockchain which promises innovative DApp development with a multi-asset ledger and smart contracts & has been in the works since 2017.
17/ When and if it will achieve what it promises - who knows? Possibly ?? In other words, I’m only mid-term bullish. My confidence tbh comes from the popularity of Charles Hoskinson, and the new agreements he gets into with countries and plans for Cardano & that its a Top5 coin.
18/ The way most new money enters crypto is that it first tends to go into Bitcoin, then upon realizing their investment could grow faster with alts, investors divest part/all of their holdings and $$ flows into the top-50 coins and beyond.
19/ This in turn determines crypto cycles. Minor cycles take place approx. every 6 to 9 months, while major crypto cycles take place every 4 years, starting a few months after the Bitcoin halving event. This thread will focus on these minor cycles.
20/ The definition of '#altcoin season/#altseason' in crypto terminology: If 75% of the Top 50 coins perform better than Bitcoin over the past 90 days it is altcoin season. Alternatively, if Bitcoin outperforms 75% of the Top 50 coins over the past 90 days, it is 'Bitcoin season' Chart source: https://www.b...
21/ Each cycle represents several months of accumulation, followed by a few weeks where prices peak out. Rinse and repeat. My general strategy has been to allocate a part of my capital to my “safe” coin/s, and the remaining amount to faster-growth coins.
22/ This example looks at 2 investors. A buys Cardano ($ADA) worth $10,000 in Aug 2020 (at $0.125). B buys BTC worth $10,000 at $11,733 at the same time. The $10k allows Investor A to buy 79.8k tokens of ADA and Investor B 0.85 BTC. Image
23/ One year later, ADA’s price is $2.02, while BTC’s price is $45,347 and Investor A sells. A's 1Y return is 16.12x or 1612% for ADA and 3.86x or 386% for BTC. Investor A has $161,193 for the $10,000 initial investment, while Investor B has $38,649.
24/ And here’s the best part. If you’re a BTC hodler, you’re gonna love this. Investor A now converts his ADA to BTC and obtains 3.55 BTC, while Investor B, the BTC-only investor, still has his 1:1 BTC meaning, he just has his original 0.85 BTC.
25/ Here’s what it looks like if the ADA investor had staked his coins as soon as he purchased them, and his return with 5% staking yield. He effectively has 3.73 BTC at the end of the year while the BTC-only investor still has his 0.85 BTC only. Image
26/ BTC can also earn yield on platforms such as BlockFi etc. Well, afaik, the coins have to be deposited in 3rd party apps, meaning you don’t hold your own keys when earning yield on BTC through 3rd party platforms and that to me is a huge risk. Not your keys, not your coins.
27/ The ADA staking in this example happens directly from a Trezor wallet, where you hold your own keys. You could use @YoroiWallet, linked to Trezor for example, or use a hot wallet staking app such as @AtomicWallet. There are others too.
28/ And this is why, imo, over the next decade, as more and more discover the staking/yield-farming capabilities of DeFi, I think this part of crypto will sky rocket, which only means, the price appreciation of DeFi tokens will be something to watch for.
29/ This example utilized Cardano, but there are so many examples of staking/yield-farming tokens that allow you to get even more spectacular returns than this. I’m relatively risk averse (being a Mom of 2 with little mouths to feed) and so my risk levels are very modest.
30/ I don’t venture into the sushi swaps, pancake swaps, etc. But I may consider dabbling a little bit more with some DeFi over the next few months, with a small 5% of my overall portfolio, just to play around and learn.
31/ I hope you enjoyed this little example of how to hodl more BTC utilizing alts. I am not putting XMR in the same category as BTC here, as I believe XMR hasn’t seen price discovery yet. However, the world’s discovery of financial privacy is a subject for another thread.
32/ My portfolio is 30 to 40% XMR/BTC (a little BTC), and other top 50 coins as the rest of it, which I am holding for staking + price appreciation for the mid-term, ie. over the next 4-5 years.

This brings me to the final lesson: patience... everything comes with time💕 Image
33/ Finally, this is an exciting journey of growth, enjoy it, learn, grow, win most (lots of research, lots of learning), and lose some. Its Ok. Overall, remember you are early! This rocket will take off over the next decade! Enjoy the ride!🚀🚀🚀
PS. I entered crypto in May 2020 and by June 2021 my portfolio was at a Money-on-Money return of 9.3x or 930% (should have mentioned this at the start of the thread)

I plan to beat these returns every year going forward, as I gain more experience and learn from past mistakes.

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More from @namsardar

26 Feb
I’ve been contemplating putting my thoughts together on where I think #Bitcoin is headed.

Thread👇
1. This is a cautionary thread, especially for those of you all-in on Bitcoin. In a euphoric bull-run, it seems like things will continue this way and price will keep going upwards with a hiccup here and there.
2. You believe Bitcoin is a revolution against central bank tyranny and fiat debasement, and I’m with you on your reasons why this is needed in our world – your heart is in the right place.
Read 45 tweets

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