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baufinanciaphaster 👹 Profile picture
@bauhiniacapital
Aug 19, 2021 • 6 tweets • 2 min read • Read on X
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I’ll see your chug-a-lug tug @MrMacroMarkets and raise you a bustling HK waterfront.
And…. There’s my ride!
Victoria Harbour, crepuscule.
Oops. Slightly *less* panoramic.
HK is lit.
And in moving colour…

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More from @bauhiniacapital

baufinanciaphaster 👹 Profile picture
Feb 18
You know all those "experts" like this guy who rely on LLMs to tell you what things cost in the future by using past costs?

Yeah. Didn't think so. I don't know that many either. Just this guy. I don't know any expert in the field who would make a real decision by asking an LLM.
The supposition he made a couple of days ago was that it would cost 23x as much as natgas.

Given subsidies at their highest were never 95%+, utilities who have solar as by far the highest portion of incremental generation capacity - both last year and

for years to come, must have figured out something that he didn't figure out using grok or the other LLMs.

What most adults who advocate/expect more solar+batteries know is that you don't have to scrap existing natgas+coal+nuclear capacity as you build more solar+BESS.
Read 36 tweets
baufinanciaphaster 👹 Profile picture
Dec 28, 2025
@abcampbell Well done. The two things I would note are:
1) conversion of PV panel mfg to copper, at that payoff profile, might not take as long as that. The supply chain is very concentrated. The top 10 mfrs in polysilicon, wafers, cells, and modules are 80-90% share. Know-how needs are not
@abcampbell super diversified, and it can be done in steps. Low temp curing of silver-coated copper paste formulations are already out there. Given a lot of new PV panel mfg capacity is still to come on line in the years ahead, given expected growth rates, if new mfg capacity were switched
@abcampbell to copper, in 5yrs more than half the then-existing capacity would be switched organically.

2) I expect companies like Trina to implement perovskite-TOPCon tandem panels which would increase output per square meter installed vs current levels by 30+%. In combination with lower
Read 7 tweets
baufinanciaphaster 👹 Profile picture
Jul 23, 2025
For people looking at the Trump trade "deal" with Japan and saying "Trump removed all barriers to US cars and trucks selling in Japan", the correct response to that is... "Uh.... no."

Japan has a zero-tariff policy on automobile imports. The US has been able to export. It hasn't
in part because they don't sell well. The majority of US auto exports to Japan are made by Japanese companies in the US.

The USTR every year puts out a report called the National Trade Estimate Report on Foreign Trade Barriers. It's long (397p this year). The section on Japan
starts on p229 and starts out with heavy-hitting topics like leather/footwear, and fish/seafood. It gets to cars in "Other Barriers" on p237.

The number one complaint is that Japan does not accept US Federal Motor Vehicle Safety Standards certification. This is probably because
Read 14 tweets
baufinanciaphaster 👹 Profile picture
Apr 26, 2025
Let's start from the back end. "Tell me why I am wrong."

OK. Fair. Here is why you are wrong. A 🧵:

Bill, your assumptions are, well, assumptions.

The first assumption is that this is a trade war between the US and China. That is wrong.

To my knowledge, Donald Trump has
broken EVERY SINGLE trade agreement which was in place between the US and other countries, before him or which he, himself, signed, including USMCA which was "maybe the greatest deal ever done."

Donald Trump has, for decades, been a fan of tariffs. He ran on it. He put tariffs
on allies. He put tariffs on Australia, which has zero tariffs on the US and with which the US runs a trade surplus. He demands tariff cuts from Japan which runs lower average tariffs on US goods than the US used to run on its imports. He put tariffs on penguins.
Read 34 tweets
baufinanciaphaster 👹 Profile picture
Apr 18, 2025
The proposed USTR schedules for port fees are out.

For Chinese/HK/Macau owner/operators (not necessarily of Chinese vessels) Image
For foreign (non-US) owners of Chinese vessels:

with exceptions: Image
Image
TLDR;
For Chinese owner/operators of vessels...

for a standard 12,000 TEU container ship (~60-70k Net tonnes),

$50/Net Tonne (or NRT) that is US$3mm per trip to the US or US$250/TEU

rising to US$140/NT or US$8.4mm or US$700/TEU starting in 3yrs.

and... Image
Read 24 tweets
baufinanciaphaster 👹 Profile picture
Apr 8, 2025
Just getting around to the USTR Section 301 hearings on the Proposed Action in Section 301 Investigation of China's Targeting of the Maritime, Logistics, and Shipbuilding Sectors for Dominance.

Like the USTR report released in Jan, it is something of a disaster. 500+ pgs of it.
There are people who support (politicians, labour unions, ports, dockworkers, steel companies, etc).

They almost all use the same talking points from the USTR report which were... wrong. They were factually incorrect in the USTR report and they were the same, or worse in the
hearings. The common trope is that shipbuilding 50 years ago was such that the US was the dominant global shipbuilder, and shipbuilders once employed X number of people. This was destroyed by CCP policies to achieve dominance in shipbuilding, and those policies started in 2006. Image
Read 26 tweets

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