Thread by @realguoya

Thread: How PLA prepared the Covid-like bio-attack

Trailblazer of “National Biosafety Strategy Research”: Zheng Tao (郑涛), from Institute of Biotechnology, the Academy of Military Medical Sciences, PLA (Major General Chen Wei is the director)

Biograph: sohu.com/a/251912352_68…

1. “Computational experiment supported platform for bioterrorism events and research examples”

Quantitative analysis of various bioterrorism events, providing infrastructure datasets, models and algorithm-experiments-scenarios whole process in 3D.

Case study: anthrax aerosol.

2. "Impact of school closures on influenza epidemic and economy" (2013)

"summarized effective measures related to school closures in case of epidemic outbreaks, and attempted to provide reference for decision-making on controlling domestic epidemic"

3. "Analysis of impact of SARS on transportation and telecommunications in China"

"the negative impact of SARS on transportation was huge, and the loss was unrecoverable. The loss peak of the transportation industry and SARS-related death peak was synchronized."

4. "Economic Impact analysis of emerging large-scale epidemic"

"Economic losses and national impact of large-scale emerging epidemics analyzed at 3 levels: microscopic, supply-demand, and macroscopic... to form the best cost-effective ratio for preventing and control measures."

5. "Technological response measures against subway bioterrorism in the United States: Investigation and Analysis" (2014)

"Due to the large population and relatively closed space environment, the subway system is vulnerable to bioterrorist attacks".

6. "Current situation and developments of biodefense information systems"

"outlines and analyzes the typical bio-defense information systems developed in the last ten years. It is hoped that more domestic research institutions or researchers can become interested in this field".

7. "A strategic construction plan for implementing military biodefense syndromic surveillance system in China" (2014)

"discusses the feasibility and urgency of building the military syndromic surveillance system (SSS) against biological threats in China"

8. "Optimal proportion of immunized populations under different smallpox bioterrorist attack risks" (2012)

"Based on minimized quality-adjusted life years losses, explored the optimal proportion of immunized populations under different smallpox bioterrorist attack risks".

9. "Parallel simulation of smallpox spreading in large populations based on social contact networks" (2012)

"study the spread of smallpox in large urban populations and the effectiveness of two main smallpox vaccination strategies, ring vaccination and mass vaccination."

10. "Spatial spread of infectious diseases and air-transportation networks" (2012)

"The aviation network accelerated the regional spread of the epidemic. Even when R0 is small, the epidemic will quickly spread to the entire network."

Simulation: Influenza outbreak in Thailand

11. "Source inversion of bioaerosol attack based on MCMC method"

"Based on observations of biosensors and concentrations predicted by an atmospheric dispersion model, MCMC sampling was used to invert source parameters: source location, source height and dispersion strength."

12. "Effects of adaptive behavior on spreading dynamics of epidemics in structured populations"

"interplay between adaptive behavior and epidemic dynamics underlies professional information release and psychological counseling, conducive to disease control and panic elimination"

13. "Time-warning needs assessment method for bio-terror accident alert based on scenario simulation" (2018)

"three main models involving bio-aerosol atmospheric diffusion, bioagent settlement and decay, disease state-transition of inhalational anthrax were constructed".

"Prevention strategies for novel influenza pandemics based on computational experiments" (2015)

"for novel influenza virus with transmissibility similar to H1N1/1918 virus, high intensity treatment, isolation, social-antiviral prophylaxis; for R0>3.3, broad-spectrum vaccine."

Above are key literatures (2012-2018) from PLA's Biosecurity expert Zheng Tao (郑涛).

His team investigated various modes of bio-attacks, analyzed the aspects of impacts in social life and evaluated prevention methods.
@DrLiMengYAN1 @2020Gladiator @LawrenceSellin @dasher8090