Thread by @HappySi79054951

THE GREAT OBC POLITICAL CHURNING

BJP's recent OBC constitutional amendment has set political chessboard on fire.

With nothing to show for development & governance, BJP has put all its eggs in Mandalisation basket, hoping to first capture UP & then 2024 Lok Sabha elections.

It is a massive gamble for BJP, which can implode BJP's carefully crafted "social engineering" formula and open opportunities for opposition, especially SP & BSP in UP and Congress in center and can shake entire OBC politics of India.

At heart of entire OBC politics of present day, which has potential of shaking political status quo lies demand for CASTE BASED CENSUS to determine exact population of OBCs in India, which according to last caste census in 1931 was pegged at 52% of population undivided India.

Interestingly demand for CASTE BASED CENSUS (something which was actually done in 2011 but results of which never officially declared) is only vocal in North India and that too UP & Bihar. Rest of Hindi heartland as well as rest of India doesn't seem to care much.

Who in India is Upper Caste (of all religions, collectively called "General Category") and who in India is OBC (of all religions) is currently based on identification of OBC castes as defined by Mandal Commission based on 1931 census.

Here is catch.

Mandal Commission definition leaves many numerically strong & politically powerful castes out of OBC list & treats them as "General Category".

This is where BJP's constitutional amendment comes. It gives power to states to decide, which (additional) caste is OBC.

BJP's constitutional amendment is seen as BJP's attempt to restructure General Category castes by moving many politically powerful General Category castes like Marathas, Jatts, Khandayats, Gujjars etc. to OBC category and cultivate them as BJP's dedicated vote bank.

BJP's reluctance to do caste base census to determine OBC population arises from strong opposition from Upper Caste Hindi speaking voters in electorally crucial Uttar Pradesh, where Upper Castes, especially Brahmins are significant voters, who can make or break any combination.

If not caste census, then what does BJP prefer ?

BJP prefers two things:

1. Switching of castes from General to OBC category depending on electoral significance;

2. L.R. Naik style "sub categorization" of OBC castes for reservation purposes, within broader 27% OBC reservation

BJP has already appointed Justice G Rohini Commission for sub categorization of OBC castes for reservation purposes within broader umbrella of 27% OBC reservations for Central Government jobs and admission to Central Government educational institutions.

Justice G Rohini was appointed as Delhi High Court's first Woman Chief Justice. It is speculated that OBCs will be divided into 1,2,3,4 categories & reservations will be ccorded as per 2%,6%,9% & 10% respectively.

For example: OBCs in category 4 will get 10% reservation.

Studies have shown that 25% of OBC castes have captured 97% of Central Government jobs. Therefore sub categorization is to ensure that few OBC castes don't have monopoly over entire 27% and all categories of OBC castes get benefit of reservation

But there is a political problem.

G Rohini Commission is slated to accord powerful OBC castes like Yadavs, Kurmis, Jats, Vokalingas, Thevars, Ezhavas etc in category 4. Which means Yadavs will not be entitled to 27% but only 10% out of 27% OBC reservations in Central Government jobs and educational admissions.

Now coming to Uttar Pradesh.

Rohini Commission is only for Central Government jobs.

9 states already have sub categorization of their OBC population for reservations in state government jobs, which is more than than 27% (constitutionally valid), thus breaching even 50% mark.

UP however does not have sub categorization for OBCs.

Raj Nath Singh, when CM of UP had appointed Hukum Singh Commission that proposed 3 OBC categories:

"Backward (Yadav); More Backward (Kurmi etc); Most Backward (70 OBC castes)" with 5%, 9% & 14% reservations respectively.

Hukum Singh report was never implemented.

In 2018, Yogi Adityanath appointed Raghvendra Kumar Commission to once again subcategorise UP OBC castes.

The Commission used Hukum Singh's 3 categories but divided reservations as per 7%, 9% & 11% respectively.

Raghvendra Commission has broadly recommended reservations as per:

1. 7% for Yadav, Kurmi, Jat, Sonar etc.

2. 9% for Gujjar, Maurya, Shakya, Lodh, Prajapati, Teli, Gadaria etc.

3. 11% for Nishad, Mallah, Rajbhar, Kashyap etc.

But Yogi has not implemented its recommendations.

But can Yogi implement Raghvendra OBC sub categorization recommendations ?

7% OBC reservations for Kurmis, strongest OBC supporters of BJP ? That will be political suicide for Yogi & BJP

Similarly 7% OBC reservations for Jats, who are already angry with BJP due to farm bills ?

Opportunity for Akhilesh Yadav & Samajwadi Party.

The smaller OBC parties of "More" &"Most" Backward castes, who tend to gain exclusive 9% & 11% OBC reservations are putting pressure on Yogi & BJP to implement Raghvendra Kumar recommendations, which Yogi is avoiding.

Who r these "more" backward & "most" backward OBC parties of UP that are putting pressure on BJP to implement Raghvendra Kumar OBC sub categorization recommendations?

1. Mahan Dal of Keshav Dev Maurya; &

2. Suheldev Bhartiya Samaj Party (BSP) of Om Prakash Rajbhar.

Akhilesh Yadav can reach out to Mahan Dal,Suheldev BSP & even Sanjay Nishad's Nishad Party to carve political front of Yadav plus chunk of "more"&"most"OBC caste parties, thereby making dent in BJP's"social engineering" caste rainbow with promise of implementing Raghvendra report

Lastly,

What about Upper Castes of UP ?

Brahmins of UP, who were already upset with BJP due to perception of Thakurisation of BJP are said to be even more unhappy with BJP's recent OBC tilt & feel marginalized

A wonderful opportunity but tough task for BSP to poch UP Brahmins.

P.S.

This is just UP.

As OBC sub categorization reservations both in Central Government jobs and rest of other states will unfold along with recategorisation of many general castes to OBC castes, entire INDIAN politics will see a massive political tumult & tectonic shift.