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Rupert Pearse Profile picture
@rupert_pearse
Aug 21, 2021 • 10 tweets • 4 min read • Read on X
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COVID sitrep: On call this weekend and the pandemic grumbles on. Where I work in east London we are seeing lots of unvaccinated patients, many needing intensive care. Locally and nationally, hospital patient numbers are rising but slowly. The NHS COVID workload remains high. 1/10
The daily number of COVID infections continues to trend steadily upwards, but the number of patients admitted to hospital is rising more slowly. 2/10 https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/
The NHS COVID workload is best reflected in the number of patients in hospital which is also rising slowly. Numbers are smaller than the winter peak that caused such huge disruption. In this wave we are dealing with COVID but we’re trying to run all other services as normal. 3/10 https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/
At a national level, the number of COVID patients in Intensive Care is holding steady, with just over 850 patients. This seems like good news because it is much lower than the winter peak but this is around a fifth of the national ICU capacity. 4/10 https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/
In terms of workload Northern Ireland is currently the worst affected area when we factor in NHS capacity such as ICU beds. Regional hotspots around the UK are putting local NHS services under strain while we try to deliver routine care and a COVID response at the same time. 5/10
The current COVID situation in itself, is manageable, but the NHS challenge is not just COVID. We are trying to clear a backlog of 2.5 million surgeries, respond to unprecedented demands on Emergency Depts, keep hospitals COVID-safe, deal with significant staff shortages….. 6/10
…..handle an epidemic of childhood infections like RSV, all while we are using 10% of hospital beds to treat COVID patients (20% of ICU beds) and have sacrificed another 10% of hospital beds to maintain infection control rules. 7/10
Another worry this week: Supply chain failures have led to a serious shortage in the tubes we use to collect samples for blood tests. We must reduce the number of blood tests to one fifth of usual. Doctors must decide which patients need tests most. 8/10
independent.co.uk/news/health/nh…
These challenges are making life very difficult in the NHS right now. Our healthcare isn’t as available or reliable as normal. Our individual actions are what keep COVID under control, so please get vaccinated and keep up the good work with #HandsFaceSpace & fresh air. 9/10
Meanwhile, the @WHO map for this week: 650,000 new COVID infections per *day*. The UK remains vulnerable as COVID surges back and forth between countries. Global vaccination campaigns are vital for everyone, everywhere. Meanwhile, in the NHS, we have a long winter ahead. 💙 10/10

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More from @rupert_pearse

Rupert Pearse Profile picture
Jan 29, 2022
COVID Sitrep: Only a short update as on call this weekend with this amazing team covering covid ICU. TLDR: Things may be settling but the work is far from over. 1/8 Image
Lots of talk this week about new covid infections hitting a plateau. This is probably driven by children going back to school. So not ideal, but better than the rebound peak we feared would happen after New Year. 2/8 https://coronavirus.data.go...
New hospital admissions continue to fall but slowly. A large proportion of these are those 'incidental' covid patients admitted for other 'usual' medical problems not covid disease. 3/8 https://coronavirus.data.go...
Read 9 tweets
Rupert Pearse Profile picture
Jan 22, 2022
COVID sitrep: Some positive news to report this week. We are definitely feeling a fall in NHS hospital and ICU admissions with covid in London this week. The rest of the UK should see a similar pattern in the coming days. This below appeared on our ICU board this week! 1/10
As mentioned in previous weeks, being confident we are past the peak is a big deal for the NHS. Every day things get a little easier, a little simpler. We can do more ‘usual’ NHS work. We can get back to clearing the backlog of surgery and other patient care. 2/10
The colours on the national map are getting lighter every week which reassures us that the number of new infections continues to fall in most areas of the UK. 3/10 https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/
Read 10 tweets
Rupert Pearse Profile picture
Jan 15, 2022
COVID sitrep: Lots of topics to choose from this week. Good news is we have probably passed the peak in new COVID-19 infections in several UK regions. This week’s map (right) is not so dark. But what will happen next is not so clear. A thread from the NHS perspective. 1/12 https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/
All eyes have been on London as the first UK region to get hit by the omicron variant. Cases seem to have peaked both in younger and older people (light blue line=<60yrs, dark blue line=60+ yrs). But we aren’t sure whether new case rates will fall quickly or plateau out. 2/12 https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/
Why so cautious when others seem confident cases are falling? Well, passing the peak defines the NHS response. When we know we are past the worst we stop planning extra covid capacity, re-focus on the patients we have, and plan more routine NHS work. A big shift in strategy. 3/12
Read 12 tweets
Rupert Pearse Profile picture
Jan 8, 2022
First COVID sitrep of the New Year: The number of omicron variant COVID-19 infections remains extremely high in the UK and still far higher than anything we have seen up until last month. Here’s what’s happening in the NHS… 1/14 https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/
London was the first UK region to get hit by the omicron variant before spreading across the country. This week’s million dollar question is whether new infections have peaked in London. Many say yes, but it seems too early to be sure…. 2/14 https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/
…and being sure we are past the peak is a key moment in the NHS response to each wave. Once we *know* we are past the worst, we can stop planning extra covid capacity, we can re-focus on the patients we have, and all the other routine NHS work. This makes a big difference. 3/14
Read 14 tweets
Rupert Pearse Profile picture
Dec 31, 2021
COVID sitrep for New Year’s Eve: The wave of omicron variant COVID-19 infections continues to spread around the world. Hospital admissions are rising across the UK but there are important differences to earlier waves…. 1/12
This omicron variant seems to spread much more easily. Infection rates are smashing all previous records. 189,000 ‘cases’ yesterday. Yes, we are testing a lot more people, but the proportion who test positive is also going up (blue line in graph). 2/12 https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/
The big discussion now is how harmful the omicron variant might be. Lots of reports of high rates of ‘incidental’ infections in hospital - patients testing positive for coronavirus who were admitted to hospital for a different illness. So what’s happening on the ground? 3/12
Read 14 tweets
Rupert Pearse Profile picture
Dec 24, 2021
COVID sitrep for Christmas Eve: The huge wave of COVID-19 infections, driven by the new omicron variant, is spreading across the country. Hospital admissions are now rising in London but the good news is we think things won’t be as bad as last winter. 1/12 bbc.co.uk/news/uk-597587…
The wave of infections with SARS CoV-2 is simply huge, passing 100,000 ‘cases’ two days in a row and way in excess of the previous record peak of 81,000 in January 2021. Yesterday 119,000 people tested positive 2/12
Before anyone suggests it, this is NOT simply because we are doing more tests. Firstly, the proportion of tests done which are positive has increased too (blue line in graph). Secondly, people get tested for a reason - symptoms or a covid contact – it’s not random behaviour. 3/12
Read 12 tweets

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