#auspol #covid19aus #covid19nsw the key elements from the Doherty Report which are not being prosecuted daily in NSW press conferences. For those who don't understand it or are too lazy to read it, which appears to be most political journalists. /1
The report models degree of public health restrictions (PHSM) required to maintain hospital capacity, at different levels of vaccination for those aged 16 and above. It uses 4 categories of restriction - baseline, low, medium and high. /2
It also models two strengths of test, trace, isolate and quarantine (TTIQ): partial, and optimal. Partial when case numbers are high and compromise the ability to TTIQ. Optimal when case numbers are low enough to allow maximally effective TTIQ. /3
Before we get to the pictures and numbers, the report calibrates partial TTIQ capacity as that available to deal with the Victorian 2nd wave outbreak on 4 August 2020. (I wonder if they mean 5 August, as that was the peak.) /4
The 4 August case numbers in Victoria were 403. 5 August was 687. Remember this is when Doherty says TTIQ will be only partially effective, at this number. Obviously NSW has gone well past this already. /5
So, if TTIQ is only partially effective, this is how things pan out. 'Control' of the outbreak is the horizontal dotted grey line towards the bottom (R=1). At the magic 70% and 80% vaccination marks, medium and medium-light restrictions are still needed, respectively. /6
(Don't forget NSW has already gone beyond the case numbers that calibrate this model.) Here are the definitions of baseline, low, medium and high. Current NSW restrictions are a blend of medium and high. /7
To quote the Report: "...light or moderate restrictions will likely be insufficient to regain control of epidemics even at 70% coverage for only a partially effective TTIQ response. Prolonged lockdowns would likely be needed to limit infection numbers and caseloads." /8
Remember the NSW Premier and PM have been saying that significant 'freedoms' will begin to return from 70% vaccination levels. Bears no relationship with what the Doherty Report says at all. /9
Also again NSW is already significantly past the caseloads that calibrate this model. And cases are growing exponentially, and doubling rate is dropping. Pushing that 'freedom' threshold even further from reality. /10
The report shows that should NSW open up completely with current case numbers, strong lockdowns would still be required up to 60% of the time (70% vaccination coverage), or nearly 40% of the time (80% coverage). (It bears repeating regularly that.../11
...these models assume case numbers significantly lower than what NSW has already.) If NSW were to retain light restrictions, full lockdowns would still be required 20-40% of the time (for 70% vaccination), and may be mostly unnecessary at 80% coverage. /12
The report and models make clear that at 50% vaccination coverage, the other carrot dangled by the Premier ('6 million jabs'), opening up would completely overwhelm the State with infections, without total lockdown. /end

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More from @RageSheen

14 Sep
#auspol #covid19aus the weaponisation of Delta. A long thread on how political strategists have used Delta to re-energise the 'live with the virus' strategy, in Australia. Most political strategy happens where the public never sees it, but it happens every single day. /1
It's important to first note that from Day 1 of the pandemic, there have been 2 competing political approaches towards it. One the traditional Australian way, of allowing our public health institutions to manage the outbreak. The other the 'live with the virus' idea. /2
As soon as the pandemic began, the PM established a National Cabinet, almost certainly to deal the federal government into the pandemic conversation, where it has very little constitutional role. States manage most public health activity. /3
Read 25 tweets
13 Sep
Up to 75% of the businesses some plan to save by ‘opening up’ would have failed anyway, inside 5 years, even without the pandemic. The ‘Economy’ isn’t a thing, we need to stop talking about it as if we’re living ‘in’ an economy. /1 #auspol #covid19aus
The Economy began only as a measure of national income. Talking about it as ‘the Economy’ makes as much sense as describing your family as ‘our weekly income’. Somebody who talks about ‘the Economy’ is really only describing the income going to successful people. /2
This is all quite deliberate. By inventing this statistical homunculus as a substitute for society, conservatives can bypass all of the usual social and political problems, in favour of a handful of statistical indicators. Indicators that are themselves…/3
Read 4 tweets
28 Aug
#covid19 #auspol the libertarians have cowed even most experts into believing Covid eradication is impossible. Most surrender at the idea of the social costs. /1

Let’s consider those, generally. We’re not yet 2 years into this pandemic. The hardship experienced by just about everybody pales into insignificance against what societies endured in the two world wars. And yet everybody seems agreed that it’s all too hard. /2
Much of that is the repeated wearing down of social life by libertarian politics, which began the pandemic by weaponising the most powerful weapon against any novel pathogen - basic quarantine - as ‘lockdown’. /3
Read 9 tweets
22 Aug
#covid19aus #auspol the Doherty Report modelled vaccination of those aged 12+ only as a ‘thought experiment’. Not because the Doherty people are bastards, but because National Cabinet specifically excluded anybody below 16 in Doherty’s scope of work. /1
Note that the same National Cabinet has now requested updated modelling based on massive case numbers, which the original report said would invalidate most of their findings. No updating though to incorporate health effects on children. /2
The report is appallingly written, an alphabet soup of jargon and passive-voiced prose. You couldn’t have designed a document better to prevent scrutiny. I doubt National Cabinet members understood half of it. /3
Read 4 tweets
8 Aug
#auspol #covid19aus #covid19nsw Camus: “…our townsfolk apparently found it hard to grasp what was happening to them. There were feelings all could share, such as fear and separation, but personal interests, too, continued to…/1

…occupy the foreground of their thoughts. Nobody as yet had really acknowledged to himself what the disease connoted. Most people were chiefly aware of what ruffled the normal tenor of their lives or affected their interests. They were worried and irritated,…/2
…but these are not feelings with which to confront plague. Their first reaction, for instance, was to abuse the authorities….Could not the regulations be modified and made less stringent?…our townsfolk…persisting in the idea that what was happening was a sort of accident,…/3
Read 4 tweets
7 Aug
#auspol #covid19aus “The key message though, and the Doherty Model shows it, let’s get vaccinated, and that’s the path to freedom”. Stuart Robert on SKY, running the new strategic narrative for LNP governments. The old ‘live with the virus’ narrative, with jabs added. /1
Our health experts are sadly woefully naive in their dealing with politicians. The Doherty Model doesn’t say this, but that’s not what the public will hear. Many everyday folk I talk too are scathing about ATAGI for the same reason. /2
Notice also this continuous use of the word ‘freedom’, the corollary to calling public health measures, designed to keep us alive, as ‘lockdown’. It’s all in the framing. The early genius of the LNP strategists was to get the lockdown term into circulation. /3
Read 6 tweets

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