0/ In today’s Delphi Daily, we took a brief look at market structure.
We examined the impact of leverage in the market, implied volatility of $BTC, CME’s open interest, and Ethereum DEX volume.
To dive deeper into this analysis 🧵👇
1/ Market Update-
🔹The markets are red again, with BTC and ETH both nuking into the Asia session and consolidating near the lows.
🔹AVAX is down 18% over the last 2 days, and Avalanche ecosystem coins took a hit too.
🔹SAFEMOON and SOL are unfazed by the downturn.
2/ A useful metric to gauge leverage is the ratio between BTC’s OI across futures and perps, and its total market cap.
On its own, this probably isn’t a very useful data point. But with the context of price and trend structure, we can actually pull away some useful insights.
3/ Implied volatility for near-term BTC options have been trending down for a couple of weeks now.
Realized volatility, or actual volatility, has been a lot lower for the same time horizon.
4/ CME’s open interest increased over the last few days, while OI on crypto-native exchanges took a tiny hit.
With price moving down on shorter time frames and OI on CME ticking up, this is a sign that institutional players on CME might be positioning for further downside.
5/ Ethereum DEX volume has fallen significantly relative to spot volumes on the big three centralized exchanges.
The highest readings are from DeFi summer, where the mania was more or less contained to on-chain primitives.
Crypto x AI Month - Decentralized AI Training: Can It Dismantle Centralized Powerhouses?
Top experts @IridiumEagle, @DillonRolnick, @fenbielding, @johannes_hage debate how open-source and DeAI can rival tech giants, a panel hosted by @Shaughnessy119.
🗣 “What decentralization really gives us is the opportunity for a properly modular infrastructure where you could actually compose those models together.” - @fenbielding (@gensynai)
Timeboost, @arbitrum's new transaction sequencing policy, replaces first-come-first-serve with an auction for transaction priority.
Winners access an "express lane" with a 200ms advantage for transaction inclusion. This shifts competition from latency to strategic bidding and prediction.
Arbitrum uses first-come-first-serve (FCFS) transaction ordering based on sequencer arrival.
This enables fast blocks and reduces frontrunning, but it has drawbacks:
In the other hand, Timeboost auctions are held every minute for next-minute express lane control:
Auctioneer accepts bids for 45 seconds, with 15 seconds for resolution. Minimum bid: 3 $ARB or 0.001 $ETH (DAO decision). Limit: 5 bids per address per round. 👇
4 Potential Express lane strategies:
1️⃣ Predict MEV opportunities using price models for arbitrage and liquidations.
2️⃣ Capture real-time MEV during control period.
3️⃣ Establish secondary market by winning auctions and reselling rights.
4️⃣ Collaborate with others, sharing access when collective MEV exceeds individual extraction.
Timeboost shifts Arbitrum's MEV from speed to strategy via time-based auctions.
It generates DAO revenue, reduces spam, and allows flexible allocation.
This approach encourages strategic bidding, benefiting the ecosystem while enabling community-driven distribution.
In last year’s Infrastructure Year Ahead report, we outlined the evolving landscape of rollups in the section "The L2 Wars."
This year, we reflect on these past predictions in this new unlocked Alpha Feed 🔓
Key insights included 👇
🔹Blast Rollup: A complete distortion of rollup architecture, signaling the end of the “kumbaya” phase.
🔹Fragmented L2 Ecosystems: Increasing isolation with unique bridging, interoperability standards, and SDKs for new chains/L3s (e.g., Superchain, Orbit).
🔹Alt-DA for Scaling: Rollups rely on alternative DA to achieve scalability.
🔹Disruption of DA Value: Premium charges on DA would no longer be sustainable, as DA faces innovation.
🔹ETH’s New Bull Case: Ethereum's future as the global proof verification layer and money.
🔹Limited Value for DA Layers: DA layers would see restricted value accrual.
🔹Positive Outlook for L2 Tokens: Sequencing value could drive positive outcomes for L2 tokens.
These predictions have largely played out, with Ethereum's focus shifting back to scaling L1 to avoid losing value to rollups.
ETH has been going through somewhat of a social crisis, and these talking points above are now brought up ad nauseam. ⤵️
Reflecting on our report a year ago, "Solana The Monolith", @solana's modular components continue gaining value across platforms, affecting ETH & BTC.
As rollups promote modularity, Solana is at the forefront.👇
In the report, we explore how Solana is contributing to the growing landscape of modular blockchain components while also developing its internal demand through the creation of L2 solutions.
Previously, the SVM and Validator Client were closely integrated, which constrained innovation by requiring any changes to consider the entire system as a whole.
The 21st century is primed for a continued struggle: the state, the corporation, the elites vs. the network. The hierarchy and the hivemind. The Tower and the Square.
With the rapid advances in AI, perhaps the stakes have never been higher.
Of history's countless concentrations and diffusions of power, the next chapter is perhaps its most consequential.
Don’t miss out on @PonderingDurian lastest report ! Probably the best current read on Centralized AI, Crypto, and Open Source AI 👀👇 delphi.link/TheTowerAndSqu…
Your Size is Not Size
Google, Amazon, Meta, Microsoft, and Apple have over $400B in cash-like assets and generate >1.5% of GDP in annual operating income. The race for AI supremacy is only heating up.
The 4 hyperscalers (Excl. Apple) spent $467B in capex the last 3 years👇
Following unprecedented news, the odds for an ETH ETF approval surged to ~70% after hovering below 25%. Subsequently, ETH’s market cap rose by $71B in one day - the largest daily surge ever recorded.
Here's our developing Ethereum Spot ETF Thread🧵
As @NateGeraci notes, recent shifts suggest a possible approval. However, for a launch of ETH ETFs both the 19b-4 and S-1 filings must be approved.