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Rupert Pearse Profile picture
@rupert_pearse
Aug 28, 2021 • 10 tweets • 5 min read • Read on X
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COVID sitrep: The situation in NHS hospitals hasn’t changed much since last week. A worry in itself. The number of patients admitted to hospital with COVID-19 continues to rise slowly. The current COVID wave now seems certain to combine with winter pressures in November. 1/10
The daily number of COVID infections continues to trend steadily upwards, as does the number of patients admitted to hospital. This means the NHS COVID workload is building. 2/10 https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/
It takes a long time to recover from severe COVID. Patients stay in hospital for some time. The NHS workload is best reflected in the number of patients in hospital, which remains high. Even if this turned round soon, many patients would still be in hospital in December. 3/10 https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/
Similar picture with Intensive Care. The number of COVID patients in ICU beds is now close to 1000: Just over one fifth of our national ICU bed capacity. Healthcare which is not available for other services such as major surgery. Anxiety about ICU beds is growing. 4/10 https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/
We’re now thinking about the inevitable winter pressures. Will the limited public health measures be enough to control seasonal ‘flu and other infections? Will pressures on Emergency Depts ease? Can we maintain other services such as cardiac, cancer and stroke care? 5/10
Some good news about vaccination this week: Research in the UK from @JuliaHCox & team show COVID vaccines are very safe. Side effects do happen but rarely. Meanwhile the same harms (eg thrombosis) occur more often and are more severe with COVID. 6/10
The good news on vaccination safety is important, because we are now beginning to ask the inevitable question: When should COVID booster doses be given? Should we share vaccine doses with less well-off countries first? 7/10
bbc.co.uk/news/health-58…
Another reason vaccination is important: A scientific paper out today in @TheLancetInfDis shows a higher risk of hospital admission for unvaccinated people in the UK infected with the SARS-CoV-2 delta variant compared to alpha. 8/10 thelancet.com/journals/lanin…
This week’s @WHO map reminds us that COVID is a global problem. 655,000 new infections per day. Sharing vaccines with other countries seems increasingly important to keep ourselves safe. None of us are safe until we’re all safe. 9/10
Like all of society, the NHS is struggling to find its rhythm. A substantial COVID workload while we are doing our best to run usual NHS services as normal. Lots of challenges in recent weeks. Thanks for your faith and support. #HandsFaceSpace & fresh air #DocsForVax💙 10/10

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More from @rupert_pearse

Rupert Pearse Profile picture
Jan 29, 2022
COVID Sitrep: Only a short update as on call this weekend with this amazing team covering covid ICU. TLDR: Things may be settling but the work is far from over. 1/8 Image
Lots of talk this week about new covid infections hitting a plateau. This is probably driven by children going back to school. So not ideal, but better than the rebound peak we feared would happen after New Year. 2/8 https://coronavirus.data.go...
New hospital admissions continue to fall but slowly. A large proportion of these are those 'incidental' covid patients admitted for other 'usual' medical problems not covid disease. 3/8 https://coronavirus.data.go...
Read 9 tweets
Rupert Pearse Profile picture
Jan 22, 2022
COVID sitrep: Some positive news to report this week. We are definitely feeling a fall in NHS hospital and ICU admissions with covid in London this week. The rest of the UK should see a similar pattern in the coming days. This below appeared on our ICU board this week! 1/10
As mentioned in previous weeks, being confident we are past the peak is a big deal for the NHS. Every day things get a little easier, a little simpler. We can do more ‘usual’ NHS work. We can get back to clearing the backlog of surgery and other patient care. 2/10
The colours on the national map are getting lighter every week which reassures us that the number of new infections continues to fall in most areas of the UK. 3/10 https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/
Read 10 tweets
Rupert Pearse Profile picture
Jan 15, 2022
COVID sitrep: Lots of topics to choose from this week. Good news is we have probably passed the peak in new COVID-19 infections in several UK regions. This week’s map (right) is not so dark. But what will happen next is not so clear. A thread from the NHS perspective. 1/12 https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/
All eyes have been on London as the first UK region to get hit by the omicron variant. Cases seem to have peaked both in younger and older people (light blue line=<60yrs, dark blue line=60+ yrs). But we aren’t sure whether new case rates will fall quickly or plateau out. 2/12 https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/
Why so cautious when others seem confident cases are falling? Well, passing the peak defines the NHS response. When we know we are past the worst we stop planning extra covid capacity, re-focus on the patients we have, and plan more routine NHS work. A big shift in strategy. 3/12
Read 12 tweets
Rupert Pearse Profile picture
Jan 8, 2022
First COVID sitrep of the New Year: The number of omicron variant COVID-19 infections remains extremely high in the UK and still far higher than anything we have seen up until last month. Here’s what’s happening in the NHS… 1/14 https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/
London was the first UK region to get hit by the omicron variant before spreading across the country. This week’s million dollar question is whether new infections have peaked in London. Many say yes, but it seems too early to be sure…. 2/14 https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/
…and being sure we are past the peak is a key moment in the NHS response to each wave. Once we *know* we are past the worst, we can stop planning extra covid capacity, we can re-focus on the patients we have, and all the other routine NHS work. This makes a big difference. 3/14
Read 14 tweets
Rupert Pearse Profile picture
Dec 31, 2021
COVID sitrep for New Year’s Eve: The wave of omicron variant COVID-19 infections continues to spread around the world. Hospital admissions are rising across the UK but there are important differences to earlier waves…. 1/12
This omicron variant seems to spread much more easily. Infection rates are smashing all previous records. 189,000 ‘cases’ yesterday. Yes, we are testing a lot more people, but the proportion who test positive is also going up (blue line in graph). 2/12 https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/
The big discussion now is how harmful the omicron variant might be. Lots of reports of high rates of ‘incidental’ infections in hospital - patients testing positive for coronavirus who were admitted to hospital for a different illness. So what’s happening on the ground? 3/12
Read 14 tweets
Rupert Pearse Profile picture
Dec 24, 2021
COVID sitrep for Christmas Eve: The huge wave of COVID-19 infections, driven by the new omicron variant, is spreading across the country. Hospital admissions are now rising in London but the good news is we think things won’t be as bad as last winter. 1/12 bbc.co.uk/news/uk-597587…
The wave of infections with SARS CoV-2 is simply huge, passing 100,000 ‘cases’ two days in a row and way in excess of the previous record peak of 81,000 in January 2021. Yesterday 119,000 people tested positive 2/12
Before anyone suggests it, this is NOT simply because we are doing more tests. Firstly, the proportion of tests done which are positive has increased too (blue line in graph). Secondly, people get tested for a reason - symptoms or a covid contact – it’s not random behaviour. 3/12
Read 12 tweets

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