my takeaway is that most forms of persuasion are effective.
please gimme more neat/strong studies or contrary studies if you know of them!
watching news changes beliefs
Martin & Yurukoglu 2017: data from channel number randomization suggests that Fox News shifts voting patterns rightward: Without Fox News, .46% fewer people would've voted Republican in 2000, 3.59% in 2004, and 6.35% in 2008:
long talks change beliefs
Broockman 2016: deep canvassing (a ~10 minute convo encouraging person to consider a trans person's perspective) increased tolerance of trans people and support for a gender nondiscrimination law; effects persisted after 3 months nytimes.com/2016/04/10/mag…
op-eds change beliefs
Coppock 2021: libertarian op-eds changed minds by ~.5-1 points toward the libertarian side on a 7-point scale (if linear, ~7-14%); ~2/3 of this effect persists after 1 mo nowpublishers.com/article/Detail…
facts change beliefs
Wood 2018: there is no evidence for a consistent "backfire effect"; telling people facts generally changes their minds; the effect of factual correction is ~1/3 as large as the effect of ideology on stated belief: mindhacks.com/2018/01/03/the…
humor changes beliefs
Orosz 2016: ridicule & humor (making fun of inconsistencies and of conspiracy believers) and logical breakdown (providing stats and explaining logical failures) are equally effective at reducing belief in a Jewish superconspiracy: frontiersin.org/articles/10.33…
my takeaway is that most forms of persuasion are effective, and much of the fighting is probably worthless about streaming vs youtubing vs podcasting vs ...
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- narrowly wins Seattle city council seat as open socialist
- Trot, loves to hate DSA
- looks like she will lose recall election
- joins DSA, we canvass for her, she wins by <1%
- resigns her city council position
- becomes a full-time anti-DSA podcaster
- her Trot org splits in three (lol), she takes ~200 ppl
- she talks shit about Zohran (DSA), until he wins
- her org uses his win & face to promote her vanity campaign for US House (will get <5%)
- she talks more shit about Zohran
What can you say but opportunist?
"They don't want power. They want to endlessly podcast about power."
For good and bad, the world was on demographic track for a Long American Century.
At current growth, fertility, & immigration levels: The US would be the ONLY world power with exponential total GDP growth by 2100.
If Trump ends birthright citizenship, he ends that trajectory.
"America First" types ignore how immigration makes the USA stronger: It makes us bigger!
Remember when Japan was going to take over the world? Japan never stopped growing more productive -- it just stopped growing more populous.
Without immigration, the US would be shrinking.
All the world's geniuses want to move here.
Trumpists would turn them away -- and lower innovation, lower growth, lower population, weaken the USA -- all to please mediocre White racists that can't intellectually compete.
Trumpists are genuinely too stupid to run an empire.