SDL Profile picture
Aug 31, 2021 7 tweets 3 min read Read on X
some studies about political persuasion:

my takeaway is that most forms of persuasion are effective.

please gimme more neat/strong studies or contrary studies if you know of them!
watching news changes beliefs

Martin & Yurukoglu 2017: data from channel number randomization suggests that Fox News shifts voting patterns rightward: Without Fox News, .46% fewer people would've voted Republican in 2000, 3.59% in 2004, and 6.35% in 2008:
long talks change beliefs

Broockman 2016: deep canvassing (a ~10 minute convo encouraging person to consider a trans person's perspective) increased tolerance of trans people and support for a gender nondiscrimination law; effects persisted after 3 months nytimes.com/2016/04/10/mag…
op-eds change beliefs

Coppock 2021: libertarian op-eds changed minds by ~.5-1 points toward the libertarian side on a 7-point scale (if linear, ~7-14%); ~2/3 of this effect persists after 1 mo nowpublishers.com/article/Detail…
facts change beliefs

Wood 2018: there is no evidence for a consistent "backfire effect"; telling people facts generally changes their minds; the effect of factual correction is ~1/3 as large as the effect of ideology on stated belief: mindhacks.com/2018/01/03/the…
humor changes beliefs

Orosz 2016: ridicule & humor (making fun of inconsistencies and of conspiracy believers) and logical breakdown (providing stats and explaining logical failures) are equally effective at reducing belief in a Jewish superconspiracy: frontiersin.org/articles/10.33…
my takeaway is that most forms of persuasion are effective, and much of the fighting is probably worthless about streaming vs youtubing vs podcasting vs ...

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More from @SocDoneLeft

May 2
New article: 🧵

I am pleased to release a working version of my "Members of Leftist Organizations, 1848-2024" dataset.

It tells a story of the multiple rises & falls of the organized American left, spanning from social democrats to anarchists: Image
This is the first time such data has ever been compiled.

That's because the topic is messy and enormous. The data spans 176 years and ~250 notable organizations, using 2600 estimates from 1100 sources.

How messy? Here's what the data looks like without the 170 smallest orgs: Image
If you'd like to play with the data yourself, you're in luck.

You can use this interactive graph to plot just about anything you'd like.

Example: Want to focus on one or two groups? Easy as pie: socdoneleft.shinyapps.io/MemLeftOrg/
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Read 4 tweets
Apr 3
it's actually absurd that "Democrats don't pursue power, don't want to win, and don't have political beliefs" has somehow become Mainstream Leftist Thought

like, this idea just dissolves on contact with reality 🧵 Image
This idea often comes up around abortion

"It's all political theater, Democrats just use abortion to win, so they will never protect it"

If true, why have literally all Dem-run states actively expanded reproductive rights?

Are people just unaware of this fact? 🧵 Image
This idea often comes up around trans rights

"Democrats just scaremonger about trans rights to win, they don't actually care"

If true, why have 2/3 of Dem states legally enshrined gender-affirming healthcare (and a dozen other rights)?

Are people just unaware of this fact? 🧵
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Read 15 tweets
Dec 7, 2023
tankies are *already* calling Guyana a US puppet state that is "provoking" Venezuelan invasion
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the "98%" figure is completely false -- currently, Guyana gets 50% of the profits and 2% of the revenue from the offshore drilling firms

Guyana is an extremely poor country with little leverage against megacorporations -- but it should fight for a better deal, as Brazil did! Image
last fun note here: the China National Offshore Oil Company (CNOOC), which is a state-owned enterprise, has a 25% stake in the productive oil field (Stabroek).

I'm glad that Exxon, Hess, and Xi Jinping can all work together to puppeteer Guyana! 🥰 Image
Read 4 tweets
Dec 3, 2023
James Somerton has outright deleted his Patreon

prior to deletion, James earned about $170,000 per year from 4,050 fans
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Less than an hour after the Hbomberguy video dropped, Somerton took a defensive tone:

Somerton posted that he was "shocked" to "come under target from a significantly larger creator".

Somerton also claimed that "nothing new" was "brought up in the video". Image
Presumably after actually watching the video, Somerton posted a short apology with no details.

Somerton said he would prepare an "extensive response", but needed time to prepare.

This is fair. Even James would need several hours to change the words to "Toxic Gossip Train". Image
Read 4 tweets
Nov 9, 2023
very cool that people on here will push blatant lies to 2.4 million people, get corrected, and completely ignore that pushback
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This is frustrating for 2 reasons:

1st, the truth is very easy to find.

Haaretz maintains a list of the Israeli dead, 1149 long.
- 775 were civilians (67%)
- 374 were soldiers or cops (33%)

Indiscriminate killings of civilians, as in Re'im, is always a war crime. Image
2nd, pro-Palestinian pundits have no need to lie.

The truth is horrible.

Israel killed 10,500 & injured 26,000 Palestinians.

1.5 million displaced. 45% of housing units damaged.

No electricity. Nearly no water. Gazans drink 1/2 a liter per day. A dozen days of food left. Image
Read 5 tweets
Oct 16, 2023
New blogpost:

Israel is ethnically cleansing Gaza. 🧵 Image
In one week, Israel has forced 1 million Gazans from their homes -- 47% of the Gazan population.

500,000 of those displaced are children and teens.

When Serbia displaced 230,000 people, NATO bombed their military into shreds.

Israel is ethnically cleansing Gaza. 🧵
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In 5 days, Israel dropped 6000 bombs on Gaza. In the whole year of 2003 -- when we invaded Iraq! -- the US dropped 29000 bombs.

Israeli guns and bombs have killed 2228 Gazans, injured 8744 Gazans, and destroyed 9283 Gazan housing units.

Israel is ethnically cleansing Gaza. 🧵
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Read 8 tweets

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