Here's your AB COVID # analysis for Tues Aug 31st. 1/
Cases/d 938, a 46% incr over last Mon's 641. 7 day ave now 1050 up 51.7% in a wk. Doubling time remains 13 ds. Positivity now an astounding 12.42% new #intentionallycruelwave high, up from last week's 10.89%. 2/
positivity in the central zone now above 20%. In the North an astoundingly scary 32.2%. 3/
Delta Mon revised to 560 (from 558) so 560/642=85.2%. Tues 971 (revised from 955) so 90.4%. Wed 938 (84%) Thurs 1038 (88.7%). 4/
Hospitalizations: inpts. Fri a rare revision down from 282 to 279, so +11. Sat +18 to 298 (unchanged). Sun +13 to 311 (revised from 303). 54% incr in 7 ds to Sun (yest 51%). Yest +14 to 325 (subject to revision). ICU yest +9 to 106. 83% incr in 7ds (yest 81%) 5/
New deaths 4. Note mortality rate dropped today from 1% to 0.9%. Don't get too excited, more likely due to exponential growth in cases outpacing the laggingest of indicators: deaths. Time will tell, but I'm not convinced this will last. 6/
Demographics: same old trends. But I'm really really really worried about the North. Their active cases are certainly much more severe than is indicated here, based on their sky-high positivity. 7/
Hope you'll join us tomorrow for our second @PopAlberta COVID briefing, focusing on airborne transmission, and featuring @caruzycki and @GosiaGasperoPhD. We'll try and institute some of the amazing feedback we've received to make things even better for y'all. fin/
Thanks to @CBCFletch @ArynToombs and AB Health for the graphics. doublefin/

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More from @jvipondmd

16 Sep
Here's your AB COVID # analysis for Thur Sept 16. 1/
Cases yest 1733, a 15% incr over last Wed's 1503. 7d ave up 22% to 1573 (yest 22%). Positivity 10.61% (last week 11.11%) slight drop. Not yet a solid trend. 2/ ImageImageImage
Hospitalizaitons Inpt: Sat +12 to 600 (revised from 596 yest 597 Tues and 588 Mon) Sun +34 to 634 (revised from 632 yest 628 Tues and 605 Mon). Mon +2 to 636 (revised from 632 yest and 610 Tues) Tues +35 to 671 (revised from 659 yest) Yest +3 to 671 (subj to revision) 3/ Image
Read 12 tweets
16 Sep
Here's your AB COVID # analysis for Wed Sept 15th, and some thoughts on the presser today, and on some of the measures announced (and not announced). 1/
Yest Cases/d 1659, a 35.7% incr over last Tues 1222. 7d ave now 1543, a 21.8% incr over last wk's 1266 (yest 16%). Positivity 10.46%, last Tues 11.67%, a nice drop... but a single data point does not a trend make. Here's hoping, though. 2/ ImageImageImage
Hospitalizations: inpts: Last Wed +12 to 556 (revised from 553yest 548 Mon 539 Fri and 525 Thurs). Thurs -1 to 555 (revised from 551 yest 549 Mon and 517 Fri) Fri +32 to 587 (revised from 584yest and 578 Mon) Sat +9 to 596 (revised from 597 yest and 588 Mon) 3/
Read 25 tweets
15 Sep
A short ๐Ÿงต on the #intentionallycruelwave in Alberta. 1/
No matter how you slice it, crafting policy to intentionally cause infection, death, and longterm disability among Albertan kids and adults, causing health care collapse, is unbelievably cruel. How did it come to this? 2/โ€ฆ
Even if unintentional (which I doubt, show me the receipts, how can the result not telling parents of infection in their classes not be obvious?), once the consequences of the policy were evident, why not reverse the policy, and try and save lives? Isn't that the gov'ts job? 3/
Read 6 tweets
14 Sep
Here's your AB COVID # analysis for Tues Sept 14th. 1/
Cases/d yest 1459, a 12.5% incr over last Mon's 1296. 7d ave now 1487 up 16% in 7 d from 1282. (yest 16%). positivity 12.18 (last wk 12.77, creepily stable at 11-12, too high showing we're missing tonnes of community spread) 2/
Hospitalizations: inpts: Wed +11 to 553 (revised from 548 yest 539 Fri and 525 Thurs) Thus -2 to 551 (revised from 549 yest and 517 Fri) Fri +33 to 584 (revised from 578 yest) Sat +13 to 597 (revised from 588 yest) Sun +31 to 628 (revised from 605 yest). 3/
Read 10 tweets
13 Sep
Here's your AB COVID # analysis for Mon Sept 13 covering the 3 days of Fri/Sat/Sun. 1/
Cases/d Fri 1667 a 27% incr from last Fri's 1312. Sat 1503 up 4% from 1447. Sun 1592 up 96% from 813 (this is a surprising # for Sun, typically our quietest day for testing). 7d av 1468 up 16% from 1278 a week ago (graph courtesy @CBCFletch). 2/
Positivity Fri 11.60% (last week 12.86%), Sat 12.17% (11.40%), Sun 12.01% (11.07%). Surprisingly very stable (and way way too high, but what do you expect when you discontinue contact tracing). 3/
Read 12 tweets
12 Sep
A thread on current numbers, and some predictions: 1/
Some of you who have followed me a long time might remember these daily tweets, using case rates of hosp, ICU and deaths to figure out what resulting severe outcomes might be from a single day's case #. 2/
It was remarkably accurate. Unfortunately. And hopefully put into context the wall of data we are confronted with, daily. 3/
Read 10 tweets

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