You’ve heard of the Irish Trilemma. Solution? Ditch the Johnson Brexit.
Now it’s the Great British Trilemma:
A Johnson Brexit
B Spending
C Low inflation
A+B = rocketing inflation
A+C = austerity & recession
B+C = ditch the Johnson Brexit /1.
The Johnson Brexit (A), dislocates the UK from a major portion of its supply chains, labour force, goods & services market, research collaboration & more, shredding UK productive resources & capacity. /2.
As a result, scope for the government spending (B) required for the country to prosper & recover, without inflation running out of control, is constrained. Potentially severely. /3.
Consequently, to avoid an inflation spiral the government has to either:
Taxing more not only breaks Conservative manifesto promises. Much worse still: it doesn’t solve the problem. In fact, it exacerbates it, removing financial resources from a broad swathe of a UK society already under increasing, government policy-induced strain. /5.
By all means, adjust taxes to make the system more progressive, stop concentration of power in a tiny wealthy elite, drive socially beneficial activities etc. But let’s not kid ourselves they’ll ‘pay’ for anything. Certainly not the results of the destructive Johnson Brexit. /6.
Where does that leave us?
🔴 Stick with the Johnson Brexit & spend what’s needed. Result: inflation crisis.
🔴 Stick with the Johnson Brexit & don’t spend what’s needed. Result: austerity, recession, crisis.
🟢 Ditch the Johnson Brexit & spend what’s needed. Result: … /7.
Ah, the result: recovery, prosperity, low inflation.
And the political defenestration of the Johnson government by the English Nationalist Wing of their own Party.
A terminal political crisis, in other words, for Mr Johnson & his team. /8.
There’s a way out of that trap.
But it requires statesmanship, grip & exceptional political skill.
On both sides of the current House of Commons.
Don’t hold your breath. /9. End
P.S. In response to some comments, ‘borrowing’ isn’t a way out. It’s a fiction that a sovereign (fiat) currency-issuing govt ‘borrows’ in its own currency. Govt bonds are effectively interest-bearing £ (in UK case). Which is why, in my brief account, ‘borrowing’ doesn’t feature.
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While understanding the surprise (it was unexpected!) at Natalie Elphicke’s defection, I’m bemused by the shock, in some quarters, that Keir Starmer welcomed her.
No, not because Sir Keir is a “Red Tory” or a “short-term opportunist”.
His grand strategy explains it.
A 🧵/1.
Starmer’s Labour is on a mission, even if some in the party don’t yet realise, to make Labour *the* party of Britain, embedding it in government for decades.
Creating a national consensus, drawing in the widest feasible span of committed supporters. /2.
The purpose is to transform the country (more on that in a moment).
“Doing an Attlee”.
But succeeding.
(Before you raise both eyebrows, consider this: what might Attlee & his colleagues have achieved if Labour had been in power a lot longer?). /3.
Today is Holocaust Remembrance Day, date of the Warsaw Ghetto uprising.
27 January, the liberation of Auschwitz, is UN Holocaust Remembrance Day.
We remember systematic, industrial, genocidal murder.
In 2022 I shared a letter from Peter.
I’d like to do so again.
A🧵/1.
Mauthausen, 13 May 1945
Dear Fritz, Dear Barbara!
After an infinitely long time I am allowed to write to you, the still existing branch of the family – or so I hope – and to tell you the events of the last 3 years. /2.
Oma is dead. She passed away peacefully and quietly in her sleep. She had been locked up in the “Home for the Aged” of the Jewish Community in Darmstadt. Mutti was put into jail. From there whilst in transit to a concentration camp she died, of kidney trouble they said! /3.
The other day I took part in a seminar organised by perhaps the world’s most famous human rights organisation.
The subject was UN efforts to end mass atrocities & the need to prevent countries blocking the UN doing so.
Something unexpected happened.
A 🧵/1.
Much of the session focused on the use of international law, & on the role of the UN Security Council, particularly its veto-wielding five permanent members, China, France, Russia, the UK & the USA. /2.
So much was perhaps predictable &, although reasonably well-informed & coming from a humane & decent place, somewhat frustrating. We all know that nothing major is likely to change on the UNSC front for years to come, if then. /3.
The human suffering of 7 October & since renders any but sociopaths deeply distressed. We're all covered in blood. Perhaps you're now angry with me for "moral relativism" or another modern deadly sin. Reading on may not help. But I hope you will.
A long🧵/1.
The most obvious reason for distress is the carnage. Then feelings of impotence & rage. Then, for the more honestly reflective, a recognition of complicity & guilt.
There is no "clean" way out. Nor has there ever been.
Don't be angry. Be determined. And realistic. /2.
Let's start with our complicity.
To recognise that, it's unnecessary to rehearse the history of the Balfour Declaration, the collapse of the Ottoman Empire, the League of Nations (British) Mandate, the Holocaust, the multifaceted role of the UN & its major powers, & so on. /3.
The kinds of ultimate resolution under discussion require a few things.
I’ll start with acceptance by all of Israel’s right to exist within internationally recognised borders. (Presumably those would be, or would be no less than, the pre-1967 “six day war” borders). /2.
Perhaps there would be some negotiation about security zones beyond those, but I won’t assume that right now.
It would also require Palestinians giving up all claims on territory within Israel’s recognised borders. /3.