#RestrictedBharatUnrestrictedWarfare
@dpkpillay12 Sir
This incomplete thread covers few aspects of Unrestricted Warfare' unleashed on Bharat on multiple fronts
- Current Situation
- Recent Dots to connect
- Afghanistan
- MIRA
- Democracy Islands 1 & 2
- Kamikaze Airfields
1/n
@dpkpillay12 Sir
This incomplete thread covers few aspects of Unrestricted Warfare' unleashed on Bharat on multiple fronts
- Current Situation
- Recent Dots to connect
- Afghanistan
- MIRA
- Democracy Islands 1 & 2
- Kamikaze Airfields
1/n
There are always winners & losers. It takes time for them to unravel. or not.
US populace are largely against endless wars. Can't fault them for that.
US has strategic interests staying in Afghanistan. Can't blame it for that.
Chips on the table:
2/n
US populace are largely against endless wars. Can't fault them for that.
US has strategic interests staying in Afghanistan. Can't blame it for that.
Chips on the table:
2/n
Afghanistan is the rocky landmass that acts as a penultimate landmass between Asia & NATO member countries while also being the epicentre of the last / current great power competition.
It's also the area right in the middle of Four Nuclear armed nations with only one...
3/n
It's also the area right in the middle of Four Nuclear armed nations with only one...
3/n
...being a traditional ally i.e: Pakistan that acted as its access infrastructure to a landlocked Afghanistan.
Russia the traditional cut throat rival. China the current.
India the arch nemesis of its only ally in the region while being favourable to Russia.
4/n
Russia the traditional cut throat rival. China the current.
India the arch nemesis of its only ally in the region while being favourable to Russia.
4/n
China the current rival and on the way to become arch rival bigger than any faced by the sole superpower in the past in every manner.
Challenge for the Deep state:
How to meet multiple objectives in one stroke? And then some.
How to get the masses pumped for a revenge /
5/n
Challenge for the Deep state:
How to meet multiple objectives in one stroke? And then some.
How to get the masses pumped for a revenge /
5/n
...make up for loss of face on the global stage?
How to get the forces re-energized for further deployments?
How to dump the failure of 2 decades of multiple administrations a nation on an individual?
How to get rid of dysfunctional political leadership & get someone...
6/n
How to get the forces re-energized for further deployments?
How to dump the failure of 2 decades of multiple administrations a nation on an individual?
How to get rid of dysfunctional political leadership & get someone...
6/n
...more pliable in the top chair?
How to justify massive increase defence spending right after a massive debacle?
How to generate maximum returns on investments in a fast paced semi-kinetic all time unrestricted warfare times?
7/n
How to justify massive increase defence spending right after a massive debacle?
How to generate maximum returns on investments in a fast paced semi-kinetic all time unrestricted warfare times?
7/n
How to justify initiating a much bigger longer adventure across land, air & even water for a just cause?
How to deploy funds & resources for the next five decades to these and in what proportions?
Thank China for that. They are working hard at it.
8/n
How to deploy funds & resources for the next five decades to these and in what proportions?
Thank China for that. They are working hard at it.
8/n
To be fair, China is working hard to carve out an ever bigger portion of world leaders predominantly autocrats showing Xi Jinping as the only leader who dares to take on US across the board. It may take a while for it to become visible but the space for democratic...
9/n
9/n
...systems flourishing is ever shrinking. Even imploding.
The more CCP people & ways get embedded in these societies the more difficult it will become to wean them away into democratic world. And a much higher Human, Time & Monetary costs involved.
10/n
The more CCP people & ways get embedded in these societies the more difficult it will become to wean them away into democratic world. And a much higher Human, Time & Monetary costs involved.
10/n
That is if democracies mired in internal chaos can throw up leadership strong enough to take China head on by the time it claims to have become a power that overshadows the US.
Back to present:
There are massive profits in a perceived loss as it creates justification
11/n
Back to present:
There are massive profits in a perceived loss as it creates justification
11/n
for a threat based adventurous sequel to reclaim the hurt the pride of a nation state.
A botched up withdrawal that even has experienced journalists like @laralogan all fired up.
One can only imagine the raw emotions of the common citizens & service personnel of the two..
12/n
A botched up withdrawal that even has experienced journalists like @laralogan all fired up.
One can only imagine the raw emotions of the common citizens & service personnel of the two..
12/n
main protagonists of this whole tragic theatre of clash of civilizations play out in real time. Tragic to Macabre all at a single click.
My hunch is that POTUS was given a resignation date on a short time frame on a calendar & he in a rush to leave a political + governance
13/n
My hunch is that POTUS was given a resignation date on a short time frame on a calendar & he in a rush to leave a political + governance
13/n
legacy ordered a preordained date. The military bosses could neither didn't want to admit to confide with legacy issues that made such a deadline disastrous.
And the intelligence community heads surrounding him probably are either as politically inclined in his continuity
14/n
And the intelligence community heads surrounding him probably are either as politically inclined in his continuity
14/n
or are part of the plan to get rid of him & pull the strings for the rest of his term. His disaster now makes him a hot potato for the party & the clique but also makes continuing with him as the only logical option to save the party. We'll see how this plays out.
15/n
15/n
The massive cache' of 'ornaments' left behind requires at least a 3x more purchases for the next adventure. I guess.
Emergency evacuations allows private contractors to charge as much as $6500 / evacuee (heard on Fox News)
And redeployments have a much higher threat
16/n
Emergency evacuations allows private contractors to charge as much as $6500 / evacuee (heard on Fox News)
And redeployments have a much higher threat
16/n
...perception thus likely to cost even more.
Highly unlikely to happen in Afghanistan though.
Result:
Bigger repeat orders for replenishments & top $ billing enhanced security threat.
While the God and the devil are both confounded in the thin margins of details of the
17/n
Highly unlikely to happen in Afghanistan though.
Result:
Bigger repeat orders for replenishments & top $ billing enhanced security threat.
While the God and the devil are both confounded in the thin margins of details of the
17/n
operability of these weapon systems. The headlines have been sold with multiple exclamation marks.
Part of the infrastructure deal money may be redirected here for 'a just cause'.
Opposition also gets credit for getting the wasteful spending reduced.
18/n
Part of the infrastructure deal money may be redirected here for 'a just cause'.
Opposition also gets credit for getting the wasteful spending reduced.
18/n
Build Back Better World (B3W) plan gets an impetus globally with all non-aligned nations forced to take sides.
War hysteria brings big contracts. And immediate advances. And speedy approvals for less than optimum tested technologies. Learn as you go. Its about making
19/n
War hysteria brings big contracts. And immediate advances. And speedy approvals for less than optimum tested technologies. Learn as you go. Its about making
19/n
fast paced choices while winning over action paralysis.
Hyperventilating media theatre brings in Ad revenues.
Geopolitical leadership keeps currency strong.
Strong currency keeps bond yields low & thus keeps the economic engine run on lower friction.
20/n
Hyperventilating media theatre brings in Ad revenues.
Geopolitical leadership keeps currency strong.
Strong currency keeps bond yields low & thus keeps the economic engine run on lower friction.
20/n
Deficit spending perks up the equity markets.
Surplus slush funds keep the tax havens tourism numbers. And their real estate rates.
Surplus slush diversification keeps Art & Cryptocurrency markets buoyant.
More chaos globally also results in 'flight to safety' i.e:
21/n
Surplus slush funds keep the tax havens tourism numbers. And their real estate rates.
Surplus slush diversification keeps Art & Cryptocurrency markets buoyant.
More chaos globally also results in 'flight to safety' i.e:
21/n
a stronger US$.
Despite all the noise China still accounts for just 3% of global currency settlements. Thanks to @kylebass.
US is a net importer from China year upon year.
A strong US$ Keeps inflation in check via cheaper imports as Federal Reserve has no option but to
22/n
Despite all the noise China still accounts for just 3% of global currency settlements. Thanks to @kylebass.
US is a net importer from China year upon year.
A strong US$ Keeps inflation in check via cheaper imports as Federal Reserve has no option but to
22/n
raise interest rates: Taper Tantrum?
A 50 year war in Asia assures revenues & tax collections that come in handy as China & Russia have been flooding South Asia as well as South American arms markets.
A Russia-China alliance in Afghanistan blunts that pitch making US the
23/n
A 50 year war in Asia assures revenues & tax collections that come in handy as China & Russia have been flooding South Asia as well as South American arms markets.
A Russia-China alliance in Afghanistan blunts that pitch making US the
23/n
preferred partner.
Printing Trillions of dollars with Xi 'sniffing' down Biden's neck with assets locked via OBOR agreements USD faced a real 'over the horizon' challenge for the first time.
We already see Xi increasingly dumping the western monetary system and preparing
24/n
Printing Trillions of dollars with Xi 'sniffing' down Biden's neck with assets locked via OBOR agreements USD faced a real 'over the horizon' challenge for the first time.
We already see Xi increasingly dumping the western monetary system and preparing
24/n
to launching into a confrontational next phase. His GO board seems to have been forced into a premature showing of fangs due to unexpected actions by Modi & Trump. And even more so by Covid 19.
In gambling the house always wins. And in expeditionary geopolitics it’s the
25/n
In gambling the house always wins. And in expeditionary geopolitics it’s the
25/n
Military Industrial Complex which is very complex indeed & plays all sides while profiting from both the intended as well as unintended outcomes.
Actions of villains & miscalculations of momentary heroes create situations that allow them an opportunity to brand themselves
26/n
Actions of villains & miscalculations of momentary heroes create situations that allow them an opportunity to brand themselves
26/n
...as heroes. Till the veil falls off. As will happen with Pakistan soon.
After they claim to send special forces to recover some American citizens.
We all know what the reality will be if this happens.
Theatre of war doesn't come in black & white.
27/n
After they claim to send special forces to recover some American citizens.
We all know what the reality will be if this happens.
Theatre of war doesn't come in black & white.
27/n
It’s a sadistic kaleidoscope of dull colours & ever shifting scenarios with ever changing potential outcomes.
And that theatre of war gets actively extended further away from Europe but at 3 critical locations.
Kashmir, Tibet & Taiwan.
Old Monk, Water and Chips.
28/n
And that theatre of war gets actively extended further away from Europe but at 3 critical locations.
Kashmir, Tibet & Taiwan.
Old Monk, Water and Chips.
28/n
Xi's assessment?
A distracted India approaching elections may not dare enter theatre of war right before it.
URI attacks just like Kargil was a trial balloon to move pieces on a Geopolitical chessboard in China.
India surprised / disappointed China & upset its tactical
29/n
A distracted India approaching elections may not dare enter theatre of war right before it.
URI attacks just like Kargil was a trial balloon to move pieces on a Geopolitical chessboard in China.
India surprised / disappointed China & upset its tactical
29/n
...calculations.
The Big man in india is being advised well in my humble amateur opinion.
Spread India's area of concern:
Ladakh Stalemate. Nepal Confrontation.
Reduce India's area of influence:
Increase CCP's footprint in Afghanistan.
Distract India from western front.
30/n
The Big man in india is being advised well in my humble amateur opinion.
Spread India's area of concern:
Ladakh Stalemate. Nepal Confrontation.
Reduce India's area of influence:
Increase CCP's footprint in Afghanistan.
Distract India from western front.
30/n
Sabotage US politically.
Take back Taiwan.
Use Kinetic force in Arunachal Pradesh
Absorb salami gains for the next few decades.
Even if unsuccessful Tibet demography changes get time to play out before retaliatory action by India.
As mentioned by Steve Bannon in an
31/n
Take back Taiwan.
Use Kinetic force in Arunachal Pradesh
Absorb salami gains for the next few decades.
Even if unsuccessful Tibet demography changes get time to play out before retaliatory action by India.
As mentioned by Steve Bannon in an
31/n
...interview to @Jkylebass CCP via the OBOR* has had the audacious to string together the three geopolitical strategies of Mackinder, Spykman & Mahan all in one.
That it has been at it for a long time is an understatement. But actively indulging in the core principles
32/n
That it has been at it for a long time is an understatement. But actively indulging in the core principles
32/n
of 'Unrestricted Warfare' and Mao's 'Hide your strength, Bide your time' CCP used Pakistan as an irritant & as a distraction while using a variety of tactics covering which may take me in a different tangent so I will attempt to connect a few dots.
33/n
33/n
Afghanistan Mess & the consistent irritant that is Pakistan; a hired mercenary of CCP.
With Pakistan finally being 'publicly acknowledged' as unreliable the other most dependable way into Afghanistan is via Pakistan Occupied Kashmir. Pakistan's nuke bluff* is in the way.
34/n
With Pakistan finally being 'publicly acknowledged' as unreliable the other most dependable way into Afghanistan is via Pakistan Occupied Kashmir. Pakistan's nuke bluff* is in the way.
34/n
Just yesterday ISI chief removes any illusion by his presence in Kabul on a day Taliban was supposed to form government.
@Mohsood123 tweet:
35/n
@Mohsood123 tweet:
https://twitter.com/Mohsood123/status/1434389690946408452
35/n
If you observe closely in the attached image and closely observe Kargil, Skardu, Panjshir & Bagram fall on an interesting alignment. And then you zoom out to Ladakh.
Just two years back on 05 August 2019 India made Ladakh free from Pakistan loving politicians
36/n
Just two years back on 05 August 2019 India made Ladakh free from Pakistan loving politicians
36/n
...of Jammu & Kashmir as also freed the peace loving J&K citizens from Pak proxy clutches.
since when the gloves are off that eventually led to Galwan valley clash with the CCP's ornamental army.
37/n
since when the gloves are off that eventually led to Galwan valley clash with the CCP's ornamental army.
37/n
Some interesting timestamps from history:
20 June 2001:
Musharraf's tenure begins as Presitator of Pakistan
07 October 2001:
US invasion of Afghanistan begins
Gwadar Port 2002:
China's interest in Pakistan's deep water harbour had been rekindled by 2002 China began...
38/n
20 June 2001:
Musharraf's tenure begins as Presitator of Pakistan
07 October 2001:
US invasion of Afghanistan begins
Gwadar Port 2002:
China's interest in Pakistan's deep water harbour had been rekindled by 2002 China began...
38/n
construction at Gwadar Port which was completed in 2006. - Wikipedia
07 August 2008 :
CCP & Indian National Congress sign MoU. No doubt about Chinese gameplan.
Don't have concrete proof of congress role. We know that CCP was playing them but its not yet established that
39/n
07 August 2008 :
CCP & Indian National Congress sign MoU. No doubt about Chinese gameplan.
Don't have concrete proof of congress role. We know that CCP was playing them but its not yet established that
39/n
they
were willing participants. Disclaimer: not because i am fan but to avoid legal issues.
18 August 2008:
Musharraf's tenure as Presitator of Pakistan comes to an end.
But what all happened leading to this?
Let's join some dots.
40/n
were willing participants. Disclaimer: not because i am fan but to avoid legal issues.
18 August 2008:
Musharraf's tenure as Presitator of Pakistan comes to an end.
But what all happened leading to this?
Let's join some dots.
40/n
16 December - Vijay Diwas: India celebrates to commemorate its victory over Pakistan during 1971 war. Bangladesh made independent from Pakistan under then PM Indira Gandhi's leadership.
A revenge of surrender by 93,000 Pakistani soldiers and breaking of their nation has
41/n
A revenge of surrender by 93,000 Pakistani soldiers and breaking of their nation has
41/n
been the source of revenge that has kept the Pakistani deep forces obsessed with India mixed with religious indoctrination that led to creation of this artificial country in the first place.
23 June 1980:
Sanjay Gandhi (son of Indira Gandhi) dies in Plane Crash
42/n
23 June 1980:
Sanjay Gandhi (son of Indira Gandhi) dies in Plane Crash
42/n
31 October 1984:
Indira Gandhi murdered by her own gunmen. Motivations clear. Source of planning?
21 May 1991:
Rajiv Gandhi, Prime Minister (son of Indira Gandhi) murdered supposedly by a LTTE operative.
If Easter Church bombings & New Zealand Mall stabbings can be
43/n
Indira Gandhi murdered by her own gunmen. Motivations clear. Source of planning?
21 May 1991:
Rajiv Gandhi, Prime Minister (son of Indira Gandhi) murdered supposedly by a LTTE operative.
If Easter Church bombings & New Zealand Mall stabbings can be
43/n
done by Sri Lankan citizen what's to give clean chit to the Pakistani connection. Source of planning, logistics & help with India?
22 February 1994:
Both houses of Indian parliament passed a unanimous resolution Pakistan must vacate parts of the state under its occupation
44/n
22 February 1994:
Both houses of Indian parliament passed a unanimous resolution Pakistan must vacate parts of the state under its occupation
44/n
19 December 1995 :
Purulia Arms Drop. Distraction on the eastern front?
Theory being West facing Radar switched off for airplane to enter India undetected.
The key conspirator blames then PM P.V. Narsimha Rao for facilitating it while showing CPI (M) supporters
as the
45/n
Purulia Arms Drop. Distraction on the eastern front?
Theory being West facing Radar switched off for airplane to enter India undetected.
The key conspirator blames then PM P.V. Narsimha Rao for facilitating it while showing CPI (M) supporters
as the
45/n
likely victims. He was conveniently blamed for a silent role in demolition of Babri Masjid by his supposed inaction. Multiple hits with one action?
14 March 1998:
Sitaram Kesari is stripped of his post of the president of Indian National Congress. New president is elected
46/n
14 March 1998:
Sitaram Kesari is stripped of his post of the president of Indian National Congress. New president is elected
46/n
11 & 13 May 1998:
India conducted nuclear tests under Nationalist Atal Bihari Vajpayee's government
28 May 1998:
Pakistan conducted nuclear tests at Chagal
03 May 1999:
Kargil War - initiated under Pervez Musharraf: must have hoped for a victory by 28 May to coincide
47/n
India conducted nuclear tests under Nationalist Atal Bihari Vajpayee's government
28 May 1998:
Pakistan conducted nuclear tests at Chagal
03 May 1999:
Kargil War - initiated under Pervez Musharraf: must have hoped for a victory by 28 May to coincide
47/n
with the above date on calendar.
24 December 1999
IC 814: Hijacking of Indian flight from Nepal
Interestingly an article on Time. com dated 17 January, 2000 by Maseeh Rahman titled 'Who was that special passenger?' claims that one of the passenger named
Roberto Giori
48/n
24 December 1999
IC 814: Hijacking of Indian flight from Nepal
Interestingly an article on Time. com dated 17 January, 2000 by Maseeh Rahman titled 'Who was that special passenger?' claims that one of the passenger named
Roberto Giori
48/n
owner of Lausanne based company De La Rue Giori an Italian National happened to control 90% of the world's currency printing business.
So possibly the duration of one week of the standoff and demands of $200 million from Indian government for hostages that was later
49/n
So possibly the duration of one week of the standoff and demands of $200 million from Indian government for hostages that was later
49/n
retracted and release of their pets from Indian jails namely: Maulana Masood Azhar, Mushtaq Ahmed Zargar & Ahmed Omar Saeed Sheikh were headline hunting sideshows.
Kind of explains the belated action by India but early action by Demonetization by @narendramodi
50/n
Kind of explains the belated action by India but early action by Demonetization by @narendramodi
50/n
22 December 2000:
Red Fort attack - where Indian PM makes independence speech each year
01 June 2001:
Nepalese Royal Family massacred.
Country stopped being the only Hindu monarchy and became a communist country. And mass scale religious conversions by well funded mafia.
51/n
Red Fort attack - where Indian PM makes independence speech each year
01 June 2001:
Nepalese Royal Family massacred.
Country stopped being the only Hindu monarchy and became a communist country. And mass scale religious conversions by well funded mafia.
51/n
11 September 2001:
Twin Towers brought down by Airplane crashes. Another plane crashed near Pentagon.
07 October 2001:
US invades Afghanistan. Likely most supplies went through Karachi Port.
11 December 2001:
China joins WTO and starts flooding global markets
52/n
Twin Towers brought down by Airplane crashes. Another plane crashed near Pentagon.
07 October 2001:
US invades Afghanistan. Likely most supplies went through Karachi Port.
11 December 2001:
China joins WTO and starts flooding global markets
52/n
via malpractices & funding its global subjugation activities.
13 December 2001:
Indian parliament attacked on a day the President - the commander in chief was also to be in the parliament.
13 December 2001 - 10 June 2002:
India-Pakistan Standoff
53/n
13 December 2001:
Indian parliament attacked on a day the President - the commander in chief was also to be in the parliament.
13 December 2001 - 10 June 2002:
India-Pakistan Standoff
53/n
Pakistan agencies had to distract India's intelligence and law agencies, destabilize currency as also weaken India's western front to ensure no adventures from march lands of Rann of Kutch, possibly incursions via Khooni Nallah too.
How to achieve all these goals?
54/n
How to achieve all these goals?
54/n
27 February 2002:
Godhra Train Burning. 59 Hindu pilgrims & Ramsevaks including children burnt alive inside Sabarmati express.
Incidentally B.R Chopra, producer of 1980 movie 'Burning Train' as also of 'Mahabharat' in 1988 had been conferred Padma Bhushan award on 03 June 2001.
Godhra Train Burning. 59 Hindu pilgrims & Ramsevaks including children burnt alive inside Sabarmati express.
Incidentally B.R Chopra, producer of 1980 movie 'Burning Train' as also of 'Mahabharat' in 1988 had been conferred Padma Bhushan award on 03 June 2001.
Feb-March 2002: Gujarat Riots
Chinese gloves were coming off while the world was busy dealing with financial crisis in 2000, 2008.
Even now importing cheap goods with increasing dependence especially medical equipments, support accessories, raw materials,critical drugs.
56/n
Chinese gloves were coming off while the world was busy dealing with financial crisis in 2000, 2008.
Even now importing cheap goods with increasing dependence especially medical equipments, support accessories, raw materials,critical drugs.
56/n
And what has happened subsequently from Galwan to now openly dancing with Taliban in Afghanistan.
05 September 2021:
So what's at stake?
What does India stand to lose?
What's at stake not just for India but for the entire world?
57/n
05 September 2021:
So what's at stake?
What does India stand to lose?
What's at stake not just for India but for the entire world?
57/n
Its has clearly shaped up as an existential battle of an Inefficient ever introspecting Democratic World vs. an overconfident ruthlessly efficient Islamist-Communist combine that are each others concubines with regular role reversals.
The inefficient ones value life...
58/n
The inefficient ones value life...
58/n
and liberty despite all their imperfections while the
efficient ones are good at what they are known for. With increasingly dangerous tools and have shed any pretense of mutual coexistence.
The battle for freedom, for democracies, life, liberty, preservation of women...
59/n
efficient ones are good at what they are known for. With increasingly dangerous tools and have shed any pretense of mutual coexistence.
The battle for freedom, for democracies, life, liberty, preservation of women...
59/n
and children and freedom from indoctrination and lost childhood and a lot more.
The battle for now is for the moral leadership of the democratic world which is in decay on multiple fronts: Culture, Economy and the very core belief system which seems to be in a churn.
60/n
The battle for now is for the moral leadership of the democratic world which is in decay on multiple fronts: Culture, Economy and the very core belief system which seems to be in a churn.
60/n
And one that can credibly take on China. US giving up this leadership while still benefiting from it seems like a viable & a rather clever strategy. As mentioned earlier it also concentrates all the big action into a comparatively limited geography.
61/n
61/n
In addition to presenting a 50 year Arms sales opportunity.
And even more so this is the time to establish the stamp of India especially post the seemingly incidentally likely deliberate chaos left behind in Afghanistan for objectives / game plan possibly beyond the..
62/n
And even more so this is the time to establish the stamp of India especially post the seemingly incidentally likely deliberate chaos left behind in Afghanistan for objectives / game plan possibly beyond the..
62/n
imagination of a civilian like myself.
But had a passive power that is cornered enough to wake up from its strategic slumber busy culturally sleepwalking into oblivion that is being shaken up to wake up & take notice of the threats, trust your own abilities and prepare for
63/n
But had a passive power that is cornered enough to wake up from its strategic slumber busy culturally sleepwalking into oblivion that is being shaken up to wake up & take notice of the threats, trust your own abilities and prepare for
63/n
global leadership under the new political leadership. India is finally taking steps that seem like baby steps as there are massive strategic craters left behind. Possibly deliberately. There's huge money and power play in acts of strategic omissions. If that makes me look
64/n
64/n
like an imaginative conspiracy theorist so be it.
The world deserves to have a non-imperialist semi-passive power that is ready to forms critical coalitions and support the smaller nations that are being hijacked by a corrupt autocratic power elite subjugating their masses
65/n
The world deserves to have a non-imperialist semi-passive power that is ready to forms critical coalitions and support the smaller nations that are being hijacked by a corrupt autocratic power elite subjugating their masses
65/n
with backing from an undeclared Autocratic Alliance. Sadly it has millions of Trojans - willing & unwilling in the democratic world that fund its rise for their personal greed.
So have the other so called developed economies which incidentally also happen to be most
66/n
So have the other so called developed economies which incidentally also happen to be most
66/n
indebted economies but have stronger currencies to a variety of factors that in my opinion seem rather inconsistent & manageable via a massive web of academia, institutions, geographical, cultural & media led Chakravyuha that seems to have some action plan for every nation
67/n
67/n
that matters with the smaller less strategically located ones considered as holiday posting in diplomatic circles...my assumption.
Players, Motivations & Common Ground :
Afghanistan is the fertile battleground for a variety of geopolitical expansion & hubris.
68/n
Players, Motivations & Common Ground :
Afghanistan is the fertile battleground for a variety of geopolitical expansion & hubris.
68/n
And its citizens especially women & children have been the worst sufferers.
Erdogan's Caliphate:
Greater Turkish dream. East Turkistan. Azerbaijan. All the way to Indian Ocean. And infiltration in EU.
(Afghanistan to China: Turkish Perspective)
69/n
Erdogan's Caliphate:
Greater Turkish dream. East Turkistan. Azerbaijan. All the way to Indian Ocean. And infiltration in EU.
(Afghanistan to China: Turkish Perspective)
69/n
Strategic Depth. Greater Pakistan?
Since liberation of Bangladesh Pakistan has been obsessed with the idea of having an influence in its backyard vis-s-vis India: Afghanistan.
And while publicly available information suggests Mohammad Daud Khan was dead against Pakistan
70/n
Since liberation of Bangladesh Pakistan has been obsessed with the idea of having an influence in its backyard vis-s-vis India: Afghanistan.
And while publicly available information suggests Mohammad Daud Khan was dead against Pakistan
70/n
and supported its independence movements he also was the one who did a coup against his cousin Mohammad Zahir Shah.
I still can't figure who remotely managed Shah's brothers' mind to do a coup. Per publicly available information many Afghan soldiers were officially trained
71/n
I still can't figure who remotely managed Shah's brothers' mind to do a coup. Per publicly available information many Afghan soldiers were officially trained
71/n
by USSR but what isn't known is how many of their soviet trained Afghan soldiers had ISI links. or were Pakistani themselves?
Russia's double revenge: Against both Afghans & US. I am certain they aren't blind to Pakistan's role in throwing them out of Afghanistan.
72/n
Russia's double revenge: Against both Afghans & US. I am certain they aren't blind to Pakistan's role in throwing them out of Afghanistan.
72/n
They don't seem to be in a hurry for that revenge...yet. Demographic Composition of erstwhile USSR states - the 'stans' could be the reason for delayed revenge.
Alternativey @SJha1618 suggests division of Afghanistan is imminent.
73/n
Alternativey @SJha1618 suggests division of Afghanistan is imminent.
73/n
If true it links to my tweet on similar lines but not details:
India's also faces existential challenges.
Yes it is that dire!
Despite the strongest leadership in the democratic world currently, demographically India is hardly two decades away
74/n
https://twitter.com/CapitalistZen/status/1430508505895604226
India's also faces existential challenges.
Yes it is that dire!
Despite the strongest leadership in the democratic world currently, demographically India is hardly two decades away
74/n
from becoming the next Afghanistan. Leadership may be able to turn it around. As i read somewhere: Demography is destiny.
Like it or not one clear majority community helps stabilize a nation & lack of it makes every ethnic group insecure leading to extreme opinions
75/n
Like it or not one clear majority community helps stabilize a nation & lack of it makes every ethnic group insecure leading to extreme opinions
75/n
& situations like Afghanistan.
We are already seeing it within our states that individually are geographically smaller than Afghanistan but in terms of population & diversity exceed it by a factor of multitudes.
China, Russia & Japan doesn't see the kind of scenes that
76/n
We are already seeing it within our states that individually are geographically smaller than Afghanistan but in terms of population & diversity exceed it by a factor of multitudes.
China, Russia & Japan doesn't see the kind of scenes that
76/n
India, U.S & U.K see.
Democracies are chaotically beautiful but it's critical not to test the tipping point.
Europe's concerns: Europe is in crisis. All wars lead to more refugees which has by now becoming a self-sustaining industry not dependent on war anymore.
77/n
Democracies are chaotically beautiful but it's critical not to test the tipping point.
Europe's concerns: Europe is in crisis. All wars lead to more refugees which has by now becoming a self-sustaining industry not dependent on war anymore.
77/n
US as the leader of NATO has just lost all its currency.
Any action by Russian in Ukraine at this time will put pressure on UK to get back in.
Germany's industrial & France's fashion base infiltrated by China. These currencies hold Euro else most currencies would crash
78/n
Any action by Russian in Ukraine at this time will put pressure on UK to get back in.
Germany's industrial & France's fashion base infiltrated by China. These currencies hold Euro else most currencies would crash
78/n
resulting stagflation fuel on corona protests!
All this when German chancellor's term is ending who has NORD stream about to get operation with Russia.
US's revenge: While I respect the US as a country I do not appreciate all its manifestations that seem to change often.
79/n
All this when German chancellor's term is ending who has NORD stream about to get operation with Russia.
US's revenge: While I respect the US as a country I do not appreciate all its manifestations that seem to change often.
79/n
China's 'owner' CCP: just a geopolitical game. Against U.S, India & even Russia.
It has already locked in resource rich autocrats for raw material supplies and west via its own institutions for end user with better purchasing power.
As Digital Yuan is launched at scale
80/n
It has already locked in resource rich autocrats for raw material supplies and west via its own institutions for end user with better purchasing power.
As Digital Yuan is launched at scale
80/n
and autocrats bribed to offer it as a better alternative to USD & Crypto its acceptance may be quick. Once Turkey accepts it...the Dominos may begin to fall.
At that time EU would be too dependent to Central Asia which in turn will be subjugated to the Middle Kingdom.
81/n
At that time EU would be too dependent to Central Asia which in turn will be subjugated to the Middle Kingdom.
81/n
Just as most of Africa. After Taiwan all of East Asia too.
Africa already has 10 million plus chinese running large business to small grocery shops robbing the natives of their livelihoods while the autocrats sign up for Huawei 5G networks and long exploration as well as
82/n
Africa already has 10 million plus chinese running large business to small grocery shops robbing the natives of their livelihoods while the autocrats sign up for Huawei 5G networks and long exploration as well as
82/n
strategic port contracts with CCP firms.
At the same time Jihadis force convert people en masse creating a whole new scale of subjects for both the Communists and Islamists. Pakistan partnership with CCP is just the trailer.
Russia: in a way best placed. All options open.
83/n
At the same time Jihadis force convert people en masse creating a whole new scale of subjects for both the Communists and Islamists. Pakistan partnership with CCP is just the trailer.
Russia: in a way best placed. All options open.
83/n
But not entirely out of the woods. It has more to worry about in the post Putin area than even the master strategist Putin may acknowledge. China along with the Caliphate can unleash on Russia the moment Putin goes: naturally or otherwise. Canada's foreign services
84/n
84/n
is full of third generation Chinese (thanks to @CleoPaskal @ChinaUncensored ) & the Canada - Arctic - China route has Putin as the roadblock in the way.
Turkey: Its role along with Pakistan forces in Armenia-Azerbaijan Conflict.
85/n
Turkey: Its role along with Pakistan forces in Armenia-Azerbaijan Conflict.
85/n
Illusions of Grandiose: Dreams of Eastern Turkestan?
Hagia Sophia Mosque: Converting a museum to a mosque wasn't a random event.
It was a message to those infiltrated in Europe to stay put. Contribute more money to the cause.
A message to Taliban to allow its
86/n
Hagia Sophia Mosque: Converting a museum to a mosque wasn't a random event.
It was a message to those infiltrated in Europe to stay put. Contribute more money to the cause.
A message to Taliban to allow its
86/n
involvement in post US Afghanistan.
As also to CCP leadership that it is willing to take on western world despite being in NATO.
A message to pakistan to support the idea of a caliphate and a nonverbal message to prove it deserves that nuclear tech be shared with it.
87/n
As also to CCP leadership that it is willing to take on western world despite being in NATO.
A message to pakistan to support the idea of a caliphate and a nonverbal message to prove it deserves that nuclear tech be shared with it.
87/n
As also his noises on Kashmir. And supposedly leaked video of hugging a crying Imran at UN after his disastrous speech as per civilized standards.
Erdogan's real estate business: Turkey's dictator Erdogan virtually owns Turkish real estate markets.
88/n
Erdogan's real estate business: Turkey's dictator Erdogan virtually owns Turkish real estate markets.
88/n
Right at the edge of Karachi, Pakistan is the office of Defence Housing Authority & right in the vicinity lie the islands of Bundle Islands leading all the way to Keti Bunder South Wildlife sanctuary right next to India Pakistan border. Chinese construction to attempt to
89/n
89/n
replicate low budget Dubai & repeat a Hambantota in Pakistan.
Xi has already announced that he will launch Beijing Stock Exchange. Pakistani control on Afghan resources may see JVs being listed in Karachi, Turkish & Chinese stock exchanges.
May sound far fetched now.
90/n
Xi has already announced that he will launch Beijing Stock Exchange. Pakistani control on Afghan resources may see JVs being listed in Karachi, Turkish & Chinese stock exchanges.
May sound far fetched now.
90/n
Not feasible but when was the last time you saw autocrats / monarch let feasibility of a project get in the way of their illusions of grandiose?
To that limited extent Pakis & Erdogan will play along.
I am certain that in their illusions of Grandiose the Pakis & Turks
91/n
To that limited extent Pakis & Erdogan will play along.
I am certain that in their illusions of Grandiose the Pakis & Turks
91/n
combine may harbour dreams of countering Dubai with a similar structure here bankrolled by CCP.
What these snakes know well is that China is getting perceptionally isolated from the west while both these are key allies...Turkey as a member of NATO as also has been on the
92/n
What these snakes know well is that China is getting perceptionally isolated from the west while both these are key allies...Turkey as a member of NATO as also has been on the
92/n
verge of becoming part of EU for long.
And Pakistan as a non-NATO ally for war on terror.
China is an ever declining phase both in terms of its ageing population & an unaudited imploding economy.
As a consequence of COVID, Wolf warrior diplomacy and now officially
93/n
And Pakistan as a non-NATO ally for war on terror.
China is an ever declining phase both in terms of its ageing population & an unaudited imploding economy.
As a consequence of COVID, Wolf warrior diplomacy and now officially
93/n
playing along with Taliban.
While western powers are denouncing their takeover of Afghanistan, China will be in no position to recover its loans to both these snakes.
The CCP's obsession with encircling India geographically & west financially is overlooking how cunning
94/n
While western powers are denouncing their takeover of Afghanistan, China will be in no position to recover its loans to both these snakes.
The CCP's obsession with encircling India geographically & west financially is overlooking how cunning
94/n
the elite in these two autocracies are.
And there is no way China will ever be able to conduct a kinetic action against either of these two.
Ironically Pakistan's Plan Z against China keeps it under logistical security umbrella of India i.e: by India just being there
95/n
And there is no way China will ever be able to conduct a kinetic action against either of these two.
Ironically Pakistan's Plan Z against China keeps it under logistical security umbrella of India i.e: by India just being there
95/n
Back to Afghanistan & Pakistan controlled Kashmir:
The 'shocking melting away' of Afghan defence forces raises similar concerns about the safety of Pak nukes as indoctrination factories are based in Porkistan. Never mind opinions of the experts of those being kept safe.
96/n
The 'shocking melting away' of Afghan defence forces raises similar concerns about the safety of Pak nukes as indoctrination factories are based in Porkistan. Never mind opinions of the experts of those being kept safe.
96/n
Safety is from outsiders not believers that may merge with the religious flag carrying non-state actors with state secrets.
The likely upcoming attacks within Pakistan especially 'blue on blue' attacks in strategic installations will reinforce this. Pakistan is getting
97/n
The likely upcoming attacks within Pakistan especially 'blue on blue' attacks in strategic installations will reinforce this. Pakistan is getting
97/n
ever closer to leave its fake impression of being a democracy. The process had sped up since India started cornering it with Defensive offence. Learnt this term from @vaibhavUP65 channel name that regularly features @majorgauravarya
01 August 2020
98/n
01 August 2020
https://twitter.com/CapitalistZen/status/1289503382898581505
98/n
As also its reducing democratic quotient via legal & cultural suffocation.
Excessive use of Blasphemy Law
Breaking Temples repeatedly
Thriving industry of Raping & Converting non-muslim girls
Bans on Apps
Attacks on media both physical & by legal suffocation etc.
99/n
Excessive use of Blasphemy Law
Breaking Temples repeatedly
Thriving industry of Raping & Converting non-muslim girls
Bans on Apps
Attacks on media both physical & by legal suffocation etc.
99/n
India's consistent diplomacy against Porkistan since 1999 comes handy here.
The world is convinced about pakistan.
Needs a big enough justification.
FATF blacklist likely. But to be backed by aid by democracies for its people. US's woke secretary state already on it.
100/n
The world is convinced about pakistan.
Needs a big enough justification.
FATF blacklist likely. But to be backed by aid by democracies for its people. US's woke secretary state already on it.
100/n
India rightly hell bent on stopping CPEC & getting back PoK ends that / makes it unviable. FATF blacklisting + Pashtun action on Durand line likely to end up supporting Balochistan.
UN may finally be spanked to get into some irrelevant verbal action.
101/n
UN may finally be spanked to get into some irrelevant verbal action.
101/n
The rest may take a decade to stabilize a bit.
China desperately waiting for the global community to accept Taliban government so that it can immediately deposit Billions in its central bank.
The fifth column in India's politics, media & civil society making noises
102/n
China desperately waiting for the global community to accept Taliban government so that it can immediately deposit Billions in its central bank.
The fifth column in India's politics, media & civil society making noises
102/n
supporting / legitimizing the barbarians as recognition by India forms the basis for massive actions by all interested parties to crush the 'rebellion'.
We may even see CCP investing upto $25 Billion in Afghanistan's central bank or make noises to that effect to
103/n
We may even see CCP investing upto $25 Billion in Afghanistan's central bank or make noises to that effect to
103/n
'soothe' the nerves of the international community that the economy is back on track. Spare the media attention to human rights while kicking US out of the picture.
An entry for Afghanistan into RCEP next. More strategic alienation for India.
Russia to have one less
104/n
An entry for Afghanistan into RCEP next. More strategic alienation for India.
Russia to have one less
104/n
reason to rely on and ally with India.
That also requires the Taliban to somehow manage to stitch together and keep running a mafia coalition that is not at each other's' throats. And even if it is able to do that its likely to be short-lived and full of contradictions.
105/n
That also requires the Taliban to somehow manage to stitch together and keep running a mafia coalition that is not at each other's' throats. And even if it is able to do that its likely to be short-lived and full of contradictions.
105/n
Expansion of @AmrullaSaleh2 into all Northern borders especially Wakhan Corridor landlocks taliban further & the threat perception increases massively for China.
China in desperation may push ISI to play openly & shower some good deals to those matter in the US too.
106/n
China in desperation may push ISI to play openly & shower some good deals to those matter in the US too.
106/n
I mean even more lucrative deals. Trump hasn't been able to drain the swamp. I doubt if anyone can!
Central Asia:
Saudi the de facto leader with Turkey's dictator Erdogan running on borrowed fumes.
Likely to lose both NATO & European tourism within next few years.
107/n
Central Asia:
Saudi the de facto leader with Turkey's dictator Erdogan running on borrowed fumes.
Likely to lose both NATO & European tourism within next few years.
107/n
Likely to accept Digital Yuan as its currency soon given sharp devaluation of both his currency & pride.
Saudi on the verge of recognizing Israel. Also avoiding Porkistan off late & cosying up to India - with wallet too.
A Saudi & Taiwanese partnership* in alternative
108/n
Saudi on the verge of recognizing Israel. Also avoiding Porkistan off late & cosying up to India - with wallet too.
A Saudi & Taiwanese partnership* in alternative
108/n
energy infrastructure via a petrochem Major may find home in western India. No inside information. Just my hunch.
An India backed Amrullah Saleh government brings common ground for US, Russia, Israel, Saudi & Taiwan. Thank CCP for that.
The Model?
109/n
An India backed Amrullah Saleh government brings common ground for US, Russia, Israel, Saudi & Taiwan. Thank CCP for that.
The Model?
109/n
A 4.5 pronged strategy of which i will mention 2.5
Tibet and Balochistan may come later.
India's democratic Package for Afghanistan : MIRA.
Taliban have just made a statement that women will be selectively allowed to work but won't be allowed to become ministers.
110/n
Tibet and Balochistan may come later.
India's democratic Package for Afghanistan : MIRA.
Taliban have just made a statement that women will be selectively allowed to work but won't be allowed to become ministers.
110/n
But in times of social media legacy models of PR don't stand a chance unless backed by the great wall.
Women especially young girls see through their BS and are risking their lives to make their voices heard while they have a chance.
111/n
Women especially young girls see through their BS and are risking their lives to make their voices heard while they have a chance.
https://twitter.com/AdityaRajKaul/status/1435124268640059395
111/n
To enter a country to help reform it from within requires a moral acceptance by the native population.
Brits & Russians didn't have it. US tried but its reasons for invading & choice of partners & allies make it seem like a MIC sustaining adventure. Exit confirms it.
112/n
Brits & Russians didn't have it. US tried but its reasons for invading & choice of partners & allies make it seem like a MIC sustaining adventure. Exit confirms it.
112/n
And the CCP's ambitions are naked.
I think Chinese follow the western imperialism template but are too brash to do it openly minus the culture, NGOs & academia led layers of propaganda.
Ironically they spend the most on big events to showcase their culture & power.
113/n
I think Chinese follow the western imperialism template but are too brash to do it openly minus the culture, NGOs & academia led layers of propaganda.
Ironically they spend the most on big events to showcase their culture & power.
113/n
This is where western democracies have been found too clever by half by using aid as a tool which even from within their own ranks is now being begun to be described as Trojan Aid. There are innumerable examples of misconduct.
Things go wrong. It's the intent / design.
114/n
Things go wrong. It's the intent / design.
114/n
That people on the ground see through.
As the initial phase of US disastrous withdrawal, unleashing or Paki / Talib etc. overloaded raging hormones subsides, they will require governance.
And official recognition of Taliban equals willingly hugging a suicide bomber.
115/n
As the initial phase of US disastrous withdrawal, unleashing or Paki / Talib etc. overloaded raging hormones subsides, they will require governance.
And official recognition of Taliban equals willingly hugging a suicide bomber.
115/n
So on what condition will India enter Afghanistan with the democracy package?
Not until explicitly pleaded by the common citizenry.
Not for sadistic reasons but that desperation provides an external power the global currency to take tough decisions.
Bitter pills.
116/n
Not until explicitly pleaded by the common citizenry.
Not for sadistic reasons but that desperation provides an external power the global currency to take tough decisions.
Bitter pills.
116/n
Ideally a million signature campaign by Afghans around the world as also petitions being signed in from within Afghanistan of which at least 51% are to be signed by women.
And they make 5-7 common requests. Something that one can use as a platform atop which a consensus
117/n
And they make 5-7 common requests. Something that one can use as a platform atop which a consensus
117/n
is made.
We crowdsource / expert source more ideas on and then make a proposal which can be called a 'Sankalp Patra' (A Written Moral Pledge) to the people of Afghanistan.
All this likely to happen while the Talib / ISI / CCP trio expose themselves everyday
118/n
We crowdsource / expert source more ideas on and then make a proposal which can be called a 'Sankalp Patra' (A Written Moral Pledge) to the people of Afghanistan.
All this likely to happen while the Talib / ISI / CCP trio expose themselves everyday
118/n
This clearly isn't an outside government interfering in a country's internal matters. It's the democratic people of a country requesting the world democracies to financially rally behind a credible power to liberate a populace of autocracy.
Will be criticized by many.
119/n
Will be criticized by many.
119/n
US exit is convenient coup.
Unless we chose to keep our eyes closed to human suffering caused primarily by religious indoctrination unleashed on millions of humans we can limit actions to a strongly worded statement in the UN or do something that may actually work.
120/n
Unless we chose to keep our eyes closed to human suffering caused primarily by religious indoctrination unleashed on millions of humans we can limit actions to a strongly worded statement in the UN or do something that may actually work.
120/n
I am reminded of a quote by Jack Welch, former head of GE:
“In a bureaucracy, people are afraid to speak out. This type of environment slows you down & it doesn’t improve the workplace. You reinforce the behaviors that you reward. If you reward candor, you’ll get it.”
121/n
“In a bureaucracy, people are afraid to speak out. This type of environment slows you down & it doesn’t improve the workplace. You reinforce the behaviors that you reward. If you reward candor, you’ll get it.”
121/n
A tough sell to all parties as none of them get what they want immediately & have to work for it.
But isn't that exactly the solution?!
All interested parties have been giving out doles to the Afghan society destroying it in the process. The warlords got hard cash...
122/n
But isn't that exactly the solution?!
All interested parties have been giving out doles to the Afghan society destroying it in the process. The warlords got hard cash...
122/n
not to attack US assets, the Taliban got weapons to do the exact opposite by another party, talented & educated Afghans got visas & citizenships to leave their motherland, installed leaders got recognition and stability without being accountable to the people.
123/n
123/n
The idea is to slow things down. And make everyone work for it.
A Long drawn, frustrating cleansing process that may take a generation. But one that encourages organic leadership & counters religious indoctrination by helping create and nurture civility and democracy.
124/n
A Long drawn, frustrating cleansing process that may take a generation. But one that encourages organic leadership & counters religious indoctrination by helping create and nurture civility and democracy.
124/n
A time worth to save an ancient civilization ravaged by its geostrategic location. And baggage from the past.
One way to do that may be to propose a Democratic Package for setting up 'MIRA - Moderate Islamic Republic of Afghanistan' that addresses concerns of all those
125/n
One way to do that may be to propose a Democratic Package for setting up 'MIRA - Moderate Islamic Republic of Afghanistan' that addresses concerns of all those
125/n
involved while being both moderate & islamic in the form of an experiment that would hopefully heal its ravaged soul with endless ethnic wars and possibly set an example or atleast throw up learnings for the rest of the world especially Islamic emirates that increasingly
126/n
126/n
seem to be making conscious efforts to integrate culturally with the democratic world.
Why #MIRA?
It's a consistent litmus test. Afghan society has to be trusted to decide its own fate & thus an alternative credible model has to be provided to counter the existing one.
127/n
Why #MIRA?
It's a consistent litmus test. Afghan society has to be trusted to decide its own fate & thus an alternative credible model has to be provided to counter the existing one.
127/n
A theological society clearly hasn't made much qualitative difference in the life of an ordinary Afghan
Given the ghastly reportage of how Taliban mistreat women especially the girl child a counter to them & empower the women I was tempted to call this project 'Devisthan'
128/n
Given the ghastly reportage of how Taliban mistreat women especially the girl child a counter to them & empower the women I was tempted to call this project 'Devisthan'
128/n
While this can be our guiding principle in how we approach our governance models in the country this is no way should be allowed to spinned to be an idea to rename the country or belief system despite our strong disagreements
Despite propaganda female empowerment to be
129/n
Despite propaganda female empowerment to be
129/n
made the hallmark of Bharat’s Democratic Package.
We will be targeted for this via Nirbhaya like episodes that had another set of propaganda to Brand India as the Rape Capital of the World while numbers don't bear it out.
We are imperfect. We never justify. We evolve.
130/n
We will be targeted for this via Nirbhaya like episodes that had another set of propaganda to Brand India as the Rape Capital of the World while numbers don't bear it out.
We are imperfect. We never justify. We evolve.
130/n
That's the hallmark of a society whose fate hasn't been cast in medieval stone.
Despite such attacks we have to go ahead with the same & make Afghanistan the Democratic capital of female empowerment within Islamic republics.
A slight digression about Nirbhaya incident:
131/n
Despite such attacks we have to go ahead with the same & make Afghanistan the Democratic capital of female empowerment within Islamic republics.
A slight digression about Nirbhaya incident:
131/n
The ghastly incident happened on 16 December (Vijay Diwas) right after arab spring had started & Aman ki Asha wasn't working with country in political turmoil & media led Anna movement gave birth to a new political party deserves a relook at all the circumstances.
132/n
132/n
Back:
Sadly many thousands of Afghans will have to be willing to sacrifice themselves for this. As the numbers of civilians increase those trained to fight will take over. They are mentally and physically trained to do so. And that inner calling is likely to kick in soon.
133/n
Sadly many thousands of Afghans will have to be willing to sacrifice themselves for this. As the numbers of civilians increase those trained to fight will take over. They are mentally and physically trained to do so. And that inner calling is likely to kick in soon.
133/n
No struggle for freedom comes cheap. Few countries have faced the oppression from a variety of foreign invaders over hundreds of years like India & Afghanistan have
Should we do that is the geopolitical question. For me personally it's a matter of time as the weaponry
134/n
Should we do that is the geopolitical question. For me personally it's a matter of time as the weaponry
134/n
gets sophisticated enough & motivations become the tipping point instead of capability. And that moral compass has to come from within societies
Afghans have tasted democracy. And from what i have sense in social media videos:they are not going to go back to the stone age
135/n
Afghans have tasted democracy. And from what i have sense in social media videos:they are not going to go back to the stone age
135/n
Not now. Not ever.
Which is why i place my confidence in the Afghans to take the lead while a regional democracy creates & nurtures a steel frame of democratic resolve with means & solutions to back it consistently while the cleansing process plays out.
136/n
Which is why i place my confidence in the Afghans to take the lead while a regional democracy creates & nurtures a steel frame of democratic resolve with means & solutions to back it consistently while the cleansing process plays out.
136/n
Consider Afghanistan's democracy a parallel to the Somnath temple that was destroyed 17 times by Mahmud Ghazni born in year 971 in Samanid Empire, present day Afghanistan.
Incidentally (or not) PM Modi inaugurated multiple Projects in Somnath temple on 20 August 2021
137/n
Incidentally (or not) PM Modi inaugurated multiple Projects in Somnath temple on 20 August 2021
137/n
Just one day after Afghanistan celebrated its Independence day under Taliban oppression + ISI aggression after US just dumped them for political messaging & CCP came in to exploit mineral wealth.
There are multiple civilizational messages here should one bothers to read.
138/n
There are multiple civilizational messages here should one bothers to read.
138/n
There are both friends & foes who have in interest in keeping Afghanistan dependant on themselves & thus support the extremists elements so that it's easier for them to deal with fewer numbers who have their writ. Never mind its by imported ballot or imported gun.
139/n
139/n
While India may still have to conduct business with Afghanistan under Taliban under duress, it is critical that we propose an alternative model under the leadership of @AmrullahSaleh2 as he seems to be the only democratic resistance of the medieval ways of Taliban.
140/n
140/n
And after defining the broader contours of the model & defining some redlines let the Afghan society fill this canvas with its own colours.
Hand them a huge canvas, unlimited supply of paint & time to paint their own dreams & aspirations but support their self respect
141/n
Hand them a huge canvas, unlimited supply of paint & time to paint their own dreams & aspirations but support their self respect
141/n
by offering all this as a loan & make arrangements via agreements to recover all the resources with reasonable return that allows them to live with their heads held high after all the carnage & uncertainty they have seen all along especially since the 1973 coup.
142/n
142/n
To paraphrase @bsarwary, an Afghan journalist:
'When I returned to Afghanistan in 2001 it was a destroyed society. No infrastructure, telecom, education' and now the educated generation has left'.
Any patriot will be aghast.
143/n
'When I returned to Afghanistan in 2001 it was a destroyed society. No infrastructure, telecom, education' and now the educated generation has left'.
Any patriot will be aghast.
143/n
Why India?
US: has lost the moral authority to re-enter Afghanistan. Can invade not be welcomes. And this time their soldiers may be targeted by civilians in frustration.
Russia: as the last aggressor can't be received.
Besides it isn't a democracy.
China: Well!
144/n
US: has lost the moral authority to re-enter Afghanistan. Can invade not be welcomes. And this time their soldiers may be targeted by civilians in frustration.
Russia: as the last aggressor can't be received.
Besides it isn't a democracy.
China: Well!
144/n
The democratic package to have four salient features:
- Institutional Structure
- Financial Structure
- Social Welfare Structure
- Strategic Security Framework minus the imperialist
mindset
Institutional Structure:
Indian government needs to station intermittently
145/n
- Institutional Structure
- Financial Structure
- Social Welfare Structure
- Strategic Security Framework minus the imperialist
mindset
Institutional Structure:
Indian government needs to station intermittently
145/n
deployed transition teams that train Afghans to manage all processes related to all critical functions especially:
- Governance
- Judiciary
- Electoral
- Banking
- Business
- Education
While all these departments exist & Indian structures are far from perfect..
146/n
- Governance
- Judiciary
- Electoral
- Banking
- Business
- Education
While all these departments exist & Indian structures are far from perfect..
146/n
And famous for being corrupt as Afghan officials, they are likely to choose this over Russia & U.S & most definitely above Taliban & China with official Pakistani influence.
Additionally the Indian government can form exploration JVs that help Afghanistan generate royalty
147/n
Additionally the Indian government can form exploration JVs that help Afghanistan generate royalty
147/n
as well as taxation revenues for its exchequer. As the contracts are secured, the Joint Ventures can be listed on Indian stock markets helping them access global funds in a transparent manner. This also opens the possibility for the Afghan government to dilute the stakes.
148/n
148/n
to payback loans if requires as also make open market offers to buy more stake.
This route also allows it to pay back soft loans from around the world including those from India.
UNEP image shows the mineral resources map of Afghanistan.
149/n
This route also allows it to pay back soft loans from around the world including those from India.
UNEP image shows the mineral resources map of Afghanistan.
149/n
In articles by NBC News, NY Times, The Diplomat, CNN etc. talk of resource wealth to be $1 Trillion to $3 Trillion but there are a variety of issue facing profitable exploration that essentially boil down to lack of stabile truly democratic government & governance systems.
150/n
150/n
But an actively interested regional power without boots on the ground beyond personnel security & experience in managing similar situations & people backed by moral authority can do wonders at a fraction of the expenses claimed by US.
151/n
151/n
In Size Afghanistan is size of just 2 Indian states: Rajasthan & Madhya Pradesh.
In terms of population its about 2.5% of India.
In terms of diversity management India has no parallels in the world.
And yes we are chaotic.
So for India this is familiar territory.
152/n
In terms of population its about 2.5% of India.
In terms of diversity management India has no parallels in the world.
And yes we are chaotic.
So for India this is familiar territory.
152/n
Additionally Afghanistan government can take a pledge to 'someday' take steps to gain credentials as a secular inclusive democracy based on moderate islamic principles that are broadly for them to figure out.
These steps may include:
- Restoration of Bamiyan Buddha
153/n
These steps may include:
- Restoration of Bamiyan Buddha
153/n
- Museums on Tajik, Uzbek, Hazara etc, history.
- Temples
- Gurudwara
- Church
And certainly a museum for Ahmed Shah Masood, the lion of Panjshir.
Most of this will be rejected by some. But isn't that exactly the reason why no foreign power will face resistance.
154/n
- Temples
- Gurudwara
- Church
And certainly a museum for Ahmed Shah Masood, the lion of Panjshir.
Most of this will be rejected by some. But isn't that exactly the reason why no foreign power will face resistance.
154/n
Unless the Afghan society is ready to bite the bullet why shouldn't the world conveniently deal with warlords & Taliban to get illegally extracted minerals out.
Why get into so much hassle when the society isn't willing to shed its baggage?
And once commitments made the
155/n
Why get into so much hassle when the society isn't willing to shed its baggage?
And once commitments made the
155/n
The global community can hold them to account if they backtrack.
I am less Naive' than i seem right now.
All these will act as Litmus test for the Afghan resolve to move beyond sectarian resistances as also their preservations as well as attacks on these landmarks
156/n
I am less Naive' than i seem right now.
All these will act as Litmus test for the Afghan resolve to move beyond sectarian resistances as also their preservations as well as attacks on these landmarks
156/n
will provide a real time feedback on the level of extremism.
Additionally, every such attack will give another reason for the moderates to rally around the idea of freedom, secularism & democracy and the resultant media coverage and the moderate content created acts as
157/n
Additionally, every such attack will give another reason for the moderates to rally around the idea of freedom, secularism & democracy and the resultant media coverage and the moderate content created acts as
157/n
anti-indoctrination antidote for the youth on a consistent basis. And that is important.
To handle this responsibility & to involve the global community on an arm's length basis to avoid too many cooks India can launch 'Democracy Bonds' with a sovereign guarantee by
158/n
To handle this responsibility & to involve the global community on an arm's length basis to avoid too many cooks India can launch 'Democracy Bonds' with a sovereign guarantee by
158/n
Afghan Government.
There will be need for many Indians & indeed global talent to execute this extra efforts to be made Afghans must be actively trained & encouraged to be at the forefront of the process in the initial years.
Running Afghanistan need not cost as much
159/n
There will be need for many Indians & indeed global talent to execute this extra efforts to be made Afghans must be actively trained & encouraged to be at the forefront of the process in the initial years.
Running Afghanistan need not cost as much
159/n
to cost as much as US deep state portrays.
It's almost like how Pakistan claims to have lost 75,000 people to terrorism. With no credible source.And its break-up.
Am sure innocent Baloch killed by ISI are on that list as some fake entry in addition to those Pakistanis
160/n
It's almost like how Pakistan claims to have lost 75,000 people to terrorism. With no credible source.And its break-up.
Am sure innocent Baloch killed by ISI are on that list as some fake entry in addition to those Pakistanis
160/n
Musharraf admits to have sold to US as incentives for killed terrorists.
I assume the going rate for such 'terrorists' could have been upwards of $10,000/ head. Pun incidental
US gave contracts to its companies registered back home who may have transferred such funds to
161/n
I assume the going rate for such 'terrorists' could have been upwards of $10,000/ head. Pun incidental
US gave contracts to its companies registered back home who may have transferred such funds to
161/n
local players via Tax Havens & would have made it back to Washington.
Afghanistan borders Pakistan, Iran, Turkmenistan, Tajikistan & Uzbekistan. And India via Pakistan occupied Kashmir.
So why did US need just so much weaponry? I am not a defence person. And may be wrong
162/n
Afghanistan borders Pakistan, Iran, Turkmenistan, Tajikistan & Uzbekistan. And India via Pakistan occupied Kashmir.
So why did US need just so much weaponry? I am not a defence person. And may be wrong
162/n
But on the face of it one can't see any sense in this extraordinarily large cache.
While there are reports going the round that the actual number of troops in Afghan Army was just 25,000 instead of the claims of 2,50,000. So this cosy club of ghost soldiers suits everyone
163/n
While there are reports going the round that the actual number of troops in Afghan Army was just 25,000 instead of the claims of 2,50,000. So this cosy club of ghost soldiers suits everyone
163/n
The contractors, the locals, the defence suppliers, the beneficiaries in Washington...everyone seems to have a hand in the till.
So while the US defence personnel didn't lose the war. US as a collective society has lost for sure.
Global funds to stay away from CCP's...
164/n
So while the US defence personnel didn't lose the war. US as a collective society has lost for sure.
Global funds to stay away from CCP's...
164/n
commie-islamist infested world by offering them good likely returns with lower risk premium. While the large pension funds, retirement funds, ESG funds (even though a scam), Sovereign Wealth funds have burnt their fingers in the subprime crisis and are presently seen
165/n
165/n
dabbling in Crypto markets one wonders how big a dent can a Democracy Bond make in that market. That said in the social media led world there are possibilities and this deserves a serious consideration.
I must also add that I am well aware that Indian government as well
166/n
I must also add that I am well aware that Indian government as well
166/n
private sector have their own internal challenges in the form of corruption, inefficiencies & absence of a national strategic mission.
But those issues can be fixed to a manageable extent with the right leadership & process as the last 7 years have shown. Admittedly we
167/n
But those issues can be fixed to a manageable extent with the right leadership & process as the last 7 years have shown. Admittedly we
167/n
still have a long way to go. Why not go along with our Afghan brothers & sisters with all our imperfections.
Global funds are always on the lookout for stable investments & with CCP's Xi Jinping seemingly having made the decision to cut off from the western financial
168/n
Global funds are always on the lookout for stable investments & with CCP's Xi Jinping seemingly having made the decision to cut off from the western financial
168/n
system & having cost a $3 Trillion value erosion in the equity markets with a few decisions 'Democracy Funds' may soon become an often used term in Geopolitical circles
Xi's economic suicide or logging off from western led financial system & creating an autocrats led
169/n
Xi's economic suicide or logging off from western led financial system & creating an autocrats led
169/n
alternative financial system?
His strongly tied strings worldwide via OBOR are entangling him post Covid led PR & wolf warrior diploggression.
As i type this i just came across a news which i had completely forgotten about the murmurs of i had heard a while back.
170/n
His strongly tied strings worldwide via OBOR are entangling him post Covid led PR & wolf warrior diploggression.
As i type this i just came across a news which i had completely forgotten about the murmurs of i had heard a while back.
170/n
China launches a new train line from Myanmar border
to commercial hub of Chengdu that provides China a new rail-road transportation channel to the Indian ocean.
This passage connects the logistic lines of Singapore, Myanmar & China and is currently the most convenient..
171/n
to commercial hub of Chengdu that provides China a new rail-road transportation channel to the Indian ocean.
This passage connects the logistic lines of Singapore, Myanmar & China and is currently the most convenient..
171/n
land & sea channel linking the Indian Ocean with southwest China.
This is the first route to link western China with the Indian ocean.
Pic shared by a Retd. officer i follow. Apologies for not crediting. Can't recall the name.
China also has plans to develop another
172/n
This is the first route to link western China with the Indian ocean.
Pic shared by a Retd. officer i follow. Apologies for not crediting. Can't recall the name.
China also has plans to develop another
172/n
port in Kyaukphyu in the Rakhine state the progress of which has been stalled by the unrest in Myanmar. (That's where the Rohingyas come from)
The Irrawaddy publication says that this route is expected to become the lifeblood of international trade for China and Myanmar,
173/n
The Irrawaddy publication says that this route is expected to become the lifeblood of international trade for China and Myanmar,
173/n
while providing a source of income for Myanmar's military regime.
So how does India counter all that?
Is it possible to convert a cost centre to a profit centre while bleeding our adversaries strategically & financially by just becoming a large viable alternative?
174/n
So how does India counter all that?
Is it possible to convert a cost centre to a profit centre while bleeding our adversaries strategically & financially by just becoming a large viable alternative?
174/n
Let's observe our neighbourhood to the east.
At the centre right of the image is Andamans & Nicobar islands.
It's a 571 islands chain with a mammoth 800 kms End-to-End spread.
90,000+ ships cross these waters every year coming from Malacca straits.
175/n
At the centre right of the image is Andamans & Nicobar islands.
It's a 571 islands chain with a mammoth 800 kms End-to-End spread.
90,000+ ships cross these waters every year coming from Malacca straits.
175/n
Democracy Islands - 1:
CCP has increased our area of concern all around: Nepal, western front, Ladakh, Sikkim, Arunachal, Sri Lanka & Myanmar
I propose that we respond by creating a Regional Tourism cum Financial centre & create a Profit Centre in our South Eastern
176/n
CCP has increased our area of concern all around: Nepal, western front, Ladakh, Sikkim, Arunachal, Sri Lanka & Myanmar
I propose that we respond by creating a Regional Tourism cum Financial centre & create a Profit Centre in our South Eastern
176/n
waters that plays a multifaceted role & creates an area of concern for CCP that drains it of its resources & distracts both resources & attention just as it has done to us via Pakistan.
It has had it easy for too long!
What i propose is a rather ambitious project as
177/n
It has had it easy for too long!
What i propose is a rather ambitious project as
177/n
what may also be a politically challenging issue.
But this government hasn't been afraid to do make bold moves in strategic national interest.
I had suggested..err..tweeted this to the big man @narendramodi as far back as 01 July 2020.
178/n
But this government hasn't been afraid to do make bold moves in strategic national interest.
I had suggested..err..tweeted this to the big man @narendramodi as far back as 01 July 2020.
https://twitter.com/CapitalistZen/status/1278247859406561285
178/n
Covid hadn't killed my mother back then & i wasn't obsessed with the idea of financially suffocating both Islamists & Communists as i am now.
Back to Democracy Islands:
Its that far away part of India that hardly makes any news. Post 2014 we have seen movement.
179/n
Back to Democracy Islands:
Its that far away part of India that hardly makes any news. Post 2014 we have seen movement.
179/n
Are we ignoring a strategic location that can fund our current defence needs once operational? Which means a good percentage of our defence budget can possibly be funded from surplus funds generated from this one location. While this in by itself would mean overdependence
180/n
180/n
it can be managed with a variety of redundancies built in.
A cultural, financial & intelligence outreach that funds both our act east policy as well as naval expansion.
I propose changing their name to 'Democracy Islands' & maybe renaming Indira Point to Kautilya Point?
181/n
A cultural, financial & intelligence outreach that funds both our act east policy as well as naval expansion.
I propose changing their name to 'Democracy Islands' & maybe renaming Indira Point to Kautilya Point?
181/n
Local, cultural & political sensitivities to be taken into account.
Historical Significance:
I wasn't aware that the name of these islands used to be 'Handuman Islands'.
northmiddle.andaman.nic.in/history/
182/n
Historical Significance:
I wasn't aware that the name of these islands used to be 'Handuman Islands'.
northmiddle.andaman.nic.in/history/
182/n
That may make this project trickier as using 'Handuman Tapu' & using it for the purposes i propose may lend itself to some unwanted propaganda. While that can also be fixed with some simple actions.
Strategic Advantages:
I propose to convert selected islands of these
183/n
Strategic Advantages:
I propose to convert selected islands of these
183/n
island chains a hub of economic, tourism & human intelligence activities.
Create a hub for spies from neighbouring country to fill in their handlers in India
But hostilities limited to CCP. The rest countries to be Indian allies in the region
As a civilian i do concede
184/n
Create a hub for spies from neighbouring country to fill in their handlers in India
But hostilities limited to CCP. The rest countries to be Indian allies in the region
As a civilian i do concede
184/n
that this may be considered an extremely dumb idea. But appeals to me on the face of it.
Incidentally 4 of these countries are major tax havens namely:
Singapore
Japan
Taiwan
Thailand
I do not fancy that. Its just a point that a lot of money passes through these areas.
185/n
Incidentally 4 of these countries are major tax havens namely:
Singapore
Japan
Taiwan
Thailand
I do not fancy that. Its just a point that a lot of money passes through these areas.
185/n
'Democracy Islands' will enable more partnerships in the region.
Singapore is a commodity trading hub.
Taiwan a semi-conductors & tech hub.
Japan an advanced industrial ally
Thailand the natural rubber epicentre of the world.
Also providing the Indian government a way to
186/n
Singapore is a commodity trading hub.
Taiwan a semi-conductors & tech hub.
Japan an advanced industrial ally
Thailand the natural rubber epicentre of the world.
Also providing the Indian government a way to
186/n
create financial infrastructure that offers more stability to a privately owned financial infrastructure.
NSE, MCX etc.
Had there been good quality regulatory oversight then being in private hands isn't a bad idea. But for now it does not look inspire confidence.
187/n
NSE, MCX etc.
Had there been good quality regulatory oversight then being in private hands isn't a bad idea. But for now it does not look inspire confidence.
187/n
Possibly an ASEAN currency with 40% INR weightage (no formula yet) as a democratic security umbrella.
Positioning Democracy Islands against CCP annexation of a democratic Hong Kong.
To establish:
Financial Links
Cultural Links
Governance Systems.
+ More Common Ground
188/n
Positioning Democracy Islands against CCP annexation of a democratic Hong Kong.
To establish:
Financial Links
Cultural Links
Governance Systems.
+ More Common Ground
188/n
Not that it isn't happening already. We need to diversity Geographically to create more common interests. And we are amongst the few countries that can.
Aerial / Water Andamans distance from neighbouring countries / economies:
189/n
https://twitter.com/dravirmani/status/1435866018044284931
Aerial / Water Andamans distance from neighbouring countries / economies:
189/n
Thailand: 1010 Kms.
Cambodia: 1318 Kms.
Vietnam: 1758 Kms.
Malaysia: 1363 Kms.
Singapore: 1593 Kms.
Context:
Delhi - Mumbai distance: 1148 Kms.
Andamans:
to Puri: 1157 Kms.
to Chennai: 1458 Kms.
190/n
Cambodia: 1318 Kms.
Vietnam: 1758 Kms.
Malaysia: 1363 Kms.
Singapore: 1593 Kms.
Context:
Delhi - Mumbai distance: 1148 Kms.
Andamans:
to Puri: 1157 Kms.
to Chennai: 1458 Kms.
190/n
Will someday be linked to Bengal Ports that used to be the closest port for Nepal; an erstwhile friendly country which is becoming a worry post turning communist
Addressing an all-encompassing neighbourhood ideological conflict unlike challenges / threats faced by leading
191/n
Addressing an all-encompassing neighbourhood ideological conflict unlike challenges / threats faced by leading
191/n
western powers in their neighbourhood – conditions apply.
Democracy Bonds: Launched from Democracy Islands.
The woke western investors may belatedly realize the importance of these as they are easy to manipulation by Pakistani ISI narrative & coercive diplomacy.
192/n
Democracy Bonds: Launched from Democracy Islands.
The woke western investors may belatedly realize the importance of these as they are easy to manipulation by Pakistani ISI narrative & coercive diplomacy.
192/n
ASEAN countries with looming threat perception of CCP's past, current & potential actions are likely to be more keen on the idea. Besides it helps them get decent returns from these low financial yield but better overall yields by potentially reduced defence expenditures
193/n
193/n
lowered threat perception, better strategic & diplomatic ties with India.
This may become the NATO of asia led by India but not protection money but friendly cooperation to deepen democracy.
There have to be checks & balances put in place to guard against its misuse
194/n
This may become the NATO of asia led by India but not protection money but friendly cooperation to deepen democracy.
There have to be checks & balances put in place to guard against its misuse
194/n
instances of which will harm it from within.
Weakness of Currency & addressing that
Generating regular demand for INR via a multitude of uses including gambling chips.
Creating external & internal financial infrastructure competition:
A dedicated stock exchange owned
195/n
Weakness of Currency & addressing that
Generating regular demand for INR via a multitude of uses including gambling chips.
Creating external & internal financial infrastructure competition:
A dedicated stock exchange owned
195/n
by GoI operated by private players.
Macau + Hong Kong + Maldives:
Macau: Economy estimated to be $40 Billion. 50% by casinos.
Morally i am not in favour of exploitative casinos & their criminal infrastructure. Open only because it's away from the mainland.
196/n
Macau + Hong Kong + Maldives:
Macau: Economy estimated to be $40 Billion. 50% by casinos.
Morally i am not in favour of exploitative casinos & their criminal infrastructure. Open only because it's away from the mainland.
196/n
Hong Kong:
Economy: $369 Billion (estimate for 2021)
GDP – composition by sector (2015):
Finance and insurance: 17.6%
Tourism: 5.0%
Trade: 22.2%
Professional Services: 12.4%
Other Sectors: 42.8%
(Wikipedia)
Post annexation by China the world needs alternatives.
197/n
Economy: $369 Billion (estimate for 2021)
GDP – composition by sector (2015):
Finance and insurance: 17.6%
Tourism: 5.0%
Trade: 22.2%
Professional Services: 12.4%
Other Sectors: 42.8%
(Wikipedia)
Post annexation by China the world needs alternatives.
197/n
Taiwan:
With China threatening them & experts predicting an attack pre-2027, they would like to hedge their bets in the region.
Maldives:
While Lakshadweep is the rightful alternative to Maldives, Andamans with its natural beauty can offer another option.
198/n
With China threatening them & experts predicting an attack pre-2027, they would like to hedge their bets in the region.
Maldives:
While Lakshadweep is the rightful alternative to Maldives, Andamans with its natural beauty can offer another option.
198/n
Casinos
Green Hotels
Financial Infrastructure
A launchpad to travel deeper into India as a package
With Lakshadweep islands as backup.
To be subtly positioned as a standalone counter to CCP's China.
Governance to be kept under Centre to ensure no blowbacks.
199/n
Green Hotels
Financial Infrastructure
A launchpad to travel deeper into India as a package
With Lakshadweep islands as backup.
To be subtly positioned as a standalone counter to CCP's China.
Governance to be kept under Centre to ensure no blowbacks.
199/n
This will create another 'Golden Quadrilateral' for India with the ASEAN region. This can be cross sold to tourists visiting India post-Covid.
This seamless travel channel likely to enhance the velocity of money in India that generates further tax revenues for GoI.
200/n
This seamless travel channel likely to enhance the velocity of money in India that generates further tax revenues for GoI.
200/n
• • •
Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to
force a refresh
