A test that is 100% accurate to detect infectious ppl will only *APPEAR* to be 30%-60% sensitive when compared to PCR-particularly asymptomatics
Why?
PCR stays positive LONG AFTER contagious period
for Public Health, PCR is NOT Specific - it’s a wrong comparison
Although rapid tests are not 100% sensitive to detect infectious levels of virus, they are >95% and do approach 100% for “superspreader” levels of virus.
We just (ignorantly) continue to compare them to PCR - which has led to massive confusion.
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This issue with PCR has caused us to isolate millions of ppl who were no longer infectious and lead contact tracers to trace and quarantine many many millions who were never exposed.
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For public health, we need tests that are not only sensitive, but as importantly are highly SPECIFIC to what it is we are trying to detect - INFECTIOUS ppl.
PCR excels in the former but fails miserably when it comes to specificity to detect infectiousness.
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For testing in a pandemic - we MUST let the goal determine the gold-standard
We have thus far used a gold standard borrowed from medical diagnostics and it’s been disastrous
We need gold standards for public health testing. Where speed and accuracy for infectiousness matter
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And here is a graphic to demonstrate this concept:
Here we go again with this asinine cautious approach to testing for H5N1
CDC is NOT recommending that people with no symptoms - but who have had contact w infected animals - be tested at all… and certainly are not recommending a swab w any frequency.
Though we should have learned it in 2020, Here’s why this doesnt make sense:
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Firstly, tests are our eyes for viruses. It’s literally how we see where viruses are
If we wait until people are getting sick, we may have missed a major opportunity to find viruses jumping into humans before they learn to become so efficient in us that they cause disease
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So waiting until we actually have highly pathogenic strains harming humans - when we have a pretty discreet population at the moment to survey - is short sighted
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A particularly deadly consequence of measles is its erasure of previously acquired immune memory - setting kids and adults up for infections that they shouldn’t be at risk from!
We found for example that measles can eliminate as much as 80% of someone’s previously acquired immunity to other pathogens! science.org/doi/full/10.11…
An expired test will Not aberrantly turn positive just because it's old
Expiry makes lines not show up. Does make them become dark.
So, if using an expired test:
Do Trust a Positive.
Do Not Trust a Negative.
*And note that many tests have had extended expiry dates...
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Here is a thread about the extensions to the expiration dates.
Not all tests are extended but many of them have and that means that the dates on the box may be different from the actual expiration date. I write about it here and how to find out