Oren Cass Profile picture
Sep 7, 2021 10 tweets 4 min read Read on X
🚨🧵🚨 New survey from @AmerCompass, "Not What They Bargained For," paints a fascinating portrait of an American labor movement that has totally alienated the workers it purports to represent, thanks to its focus on political activism. Let's dive in... americancompass.org/essays/not-wha…
@AmerCompass 2/ Lower- and working-class Americans are much less likely than their middle- and upper-class counterparts to want politicians to speak favorably about labor unions. Not that they want to hear them speaking unfavorably. Most just don't care, or don't want to hear about it.
3/ Zoom in on the core that we call "potential union members" -- people working 30+ hours per week at a for-profit company -- and only 35% say they would vote for a union. They're almost as likely to say they would be undecided, or to say they would be opposed.
4/ Unions claim that workers can't organize because they fear employer retaliation. We didn't find evidence for that. We asked potential union members why they're not unionized and 69% said not sure or haven't thought about it. 2% (two percent!) cited threat of retaliation.
5/ Similar result when we ask potential union members opposed to a union to check off all the reasons they would vote no. Retaliation was by far the least-chosen option.

What was #1?

Union political involvement.
6/ Here we get to the heart of the matter. Workers really dislike union involvement in politics. By 74% to 26%, potential union members prefer a worker organization that devotes resources only to issues in their workplace over one also focused on national political issues.
7/ We asked workers to allocate 20 points across "different things a worker organization could do, based on how important each activity is to you." They allocated 65% to collective bargaining, benefits and training, and workplace collaboration.

Politics got 3% (three percent!).
8/ We listed the nearly 20 different political issues that the AFL-CIO and SEIU feature on their websites and invited workers to check off all that they'd want a worker organization to speak out on. Not a single issue got to 50%. Most got 20% support or less.
9/ We also asked potential union members whether they would prefer a worker organization run by employees alone or run jointly by employees and management. By 63% to 37%, they prefer a joint arrangement. Totally different conception from what today's unions and labor law assume.
10/ America needs a robust labor movement, but that requires political and union leaders listening to what workers actually want: a collaborative relationships, a focus on concrete economic benefits, and for goodness sake, enough with the politics. End. americancompass.org/essays/not-wha…

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More from @oren_cass

Jun 15
1/10 I say this out of respect, not disrespect, for Sohrab, whose analysis is always careful and thoughtful: This makes no sense at all. If the best effort at constructing a case from within an assumption of U.S. hegemony leaves logical holes this gaping, that era is truly over.
2/ First, Israel is conducting a campaign against a country that has orchestrated unending terrorism against it for decades and called for its destruction. It is not America's place to grant permission for such a campaign, to take responsibility for it, or to stand in its way.
3/ Not having responsibility for the campaign, the U.S. likewise does not have responsibility for the smoldering ruins that Israel may leave behind, no matter how much people rend their garments and complain. Yes, this requires a mindset change. So make it.
Read 10 tweets
May 27
1/ In an especially fun bout of market fundamentalism yesterday, @MattHennessey @WSJopinion argued that markets "are governed by the laws of economics the way the physical world is governed by the laws of gravity." I love this for two reasons...
wsj.com/opinion/jd-van…
2/ First, because it's disastrously inapt. Economics is nothing like physics. Its principles are not generated from repeatable experiments, nor do they hold consistently across space and time. Believing otherwise is a quite literal example of blind faith and fundamentalism.
3/ Second, though, it's perfect. Yes, the physical world is governed by the laws of gravity. But it is not governed only by the laws of gravity. Indeed, anyone who thought he could reliably predict the motion of bodies with knowledge only of gravity would be quite disappointed.
Read 5 tweets
Apr 14
1/ Today's Understanding America, You're So Vain, You Probably Think This Post Is About You, takes a look at the bizarre social media reaction to this @FrankLuntz tweet and what it says about the blinkered innumeracy and elitism of reindustrialization's skeptics.
2/ The Rorschach test here is one separating people who can think rationally and empathetically about the wide range of opportunities their fellow citizens might pursue, and those who lack that basic capacity. @scottlincicome apparently falls in bucket 2. Image
@scottlincicome 3/ See, if 25% of respondents say they’d prefer a factory job to their current job, that suggests an enormous opportunity for improvement in many lives. But @gtconway3d thinks only people who themselves see a factory job as their best option should support more factory jobs. Image
Read 6 tweets
Apr 6
Tough crowd, sore subject I guess. Deleting tweet and archiving it here. Only point I was trying to make is that I think comparative advantage mostly determines composition of trade, other factors drive level. I was curious how people would describe it. You didn't disappoint... Image
I particularly appreciated Alex's enthusiastic ALL CAPS confidence that comparative advantage explains the slave trade.
Thanks also to everyone who thinks richer countries always run deficits with poorer countries because the poorer countries can't afford to buy as much. I must have missed that chapter in Ricardo.
Read 7 tweets
Apr 3
1/ If you don't like what Trump did on reciprocity, that's fine. But if you're claiming it's indecipherable, you're not trying very hard.

In February, in Understanding America, I explained exactly how this might look and why:
2/ "Some analysts have taken the threat of 'reciprocal tariffs' to mean literally holding a mirror up to the tariff regimes of other countries... there’s no reason to believe that’s what the administration is pursuing." understandingamerica.co/p/the-one-word…
3/ "Trump’s orders indicate a desire to assess the extent of imbalance in market access between the U.S. and each of its trading partners, and then use a tariff to counteract it." Image
Read 6 tweets
Feb 3
1/ Some thoughts on how to understand the tariff kerfuffle, at the aptly named Understanding America.

To start with, you have to distinguish between four different uses for tariffs: 🧵 Image
2/ Uses of tariffs:

#1: Funding. Tariffs can generate revenue.

#2: Decoupling. Tariffs can shift supply chains.

#3: Rebalancing. Tariffs can promote domestic production.

#4: Negotiating. Tariffs can provide powerful leverage.
3/ Notice that the first three uses of tariffs are fundamentally economic in nature and the policymaker’s goal should be to impose them in a stable and predictable way that minimizes economic costs domestically and creates confidence that they will remain for the long-term.
Read 10 tweets

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