Oren Cass Profile picture
Sep 7, 2021 10 tweets 4 min read Read on X
🚨🧵🚨 New survey from @AmerCompass, "Not What They Bargained For," paints a fascinating portrait of an American labor movement that has totally alienated the workers it purports to represent, thanks to its focus on political activism. Let's dive in... americancompass.org/essays/not-wha…
@AmerCompass 2/ Lower- and working-class Americans are much less likely than their middle- and upper-class counterparts to want politicians to speak favorably about labor unions. Not that they want to hear them speaking unfavorably. Most just don't care, or don't want to hear about it.
3/ Zoom in on the core that we call "potential union members" -- people working 30+ hours per week at a for-profit company -- and only 35% say they would vote for a union. They're almost as likely to say they would be undecided, or to say they would be opposed.
4/ Unions claim that workers can't organize because they fear employer retaliation. We didn't find evidence for that. We asked potential union members why they're not unionized and 69% said not sure or haven't thought about it. 2% (two percent!) cited threat of retaliation.
5/ Similar result when we ask potential union members opposed to a union to check off all the reasons they would vote no. Retaliation was by far the least-chosen option.

What was #1?

Union political involvement.
6/ Here we get to the heart of the matter. Workers really dislike union involvement in politics. By 74% to 26%, potential union members prefer a worker organization that devotes resources only to issues in their workplace over one also focused on national political issues.
7/ We asked workers to allocate 20 points across "different things a worker organization could do, based on how important each activity is to you." They allocated 65% to collective bargaining, benefits and training, and workplace collaboration.

Politics got 3% (three percent!).
8/ We listed the nearly 20 different political issues that the AFL-CIO and SEIU feature on their websites and invited workers to check off all that they'd want a worker organization to speak out on. Not a single issue got to 50%. Most got 20% support or less.
9/ We also asked potential union members whether they would prefer a worker organization run by employees alone or run jointly by employees and management. By 63% to 37%, they prefer a joint arrangement. Totally different conception from what today's unions and labor law assume.
10/ America needs a robust labor movement, but that requires political and union leaders listening to what workers actually want: a collaborative relationships, a focus on concrete economic benefits, and for goodness sake, enough with the politics. End. americancompass.org/essays/not-wha…

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More from @oren_cass

Sep 27
1/ The main reason we're winning the tariff debate is we're right.

But if I'm being honest, it helps a lot that the other side is just not good at what they do.

I genuinely wish there were a better anti-tariff case making the rounds than this one. 🧵
2/ The most important thing to recognize is the basic failure of reading comprehension. Is it rude to say they don't even understand the debate they're engaged in? Maybe. But I think it's nicer than concluding that they're lying.
3/ I wrote: "Trump’s proposal ... has drawn resounding mockery from economists, and, in turn, from the mainstream media."

Pino describes this as: "Cass misdirects the reader by suggesting the mainstream media and economists are in cahoots."

That's not what "in turn" means.
Read 10 tweets
Jul 11
Very insightful @greg_ip @wsj look today at the economic battle within the GOP between old "pro-business libertarian wing" and "a growing contingent of conservatives skeptical of big business, ambivalent about tax cuts and vocally supportive of tariffs."

Three observations: Image
1. Ideas matter! @AmerCompass, a team of seven with a budget below $2M, can serve as a "counterweight" to the entire legacy establishment because we make actual arguments that happen to be right. 100x spent on ad hominems and brute ideological enforcement still loses ground. Image
@AmerCompass 2. The primary affiliation of every person quoted in the "pro-business libertarian wing" begins "former."

"Rubio and Vance might not be representative of GOP lawmakers, who are mostly free marketers, said Patrick Toomey..." who is no longer in the Senate. Image
Read 5 tweets
Jul 8
1/ My long-but-worthwhile-read @nytimes is about the American political class's self-righteous detachment from the economic and social conditions of its nation.

This is the root cause of present instability and poses the most serious long-term threat to the Republic. 🧵 Image
2/ My story starts with my own experience as domestic policy director on Mitt Romney's 2012 presidential campaign. Questions began trickling in from New Hampshire -- what's our plan on opioids? I am ashamed to say I did not know what they were. But I was no outlier... Image
3/ The infamous "bitter clinger" and “47 percent” comments by Obama and Romney captured the atmosphere in the ruling class well: delivered at private fund-raisers in San Francisco in 2008 and Boca Raton in 2012, evincing disdain for the voters who lived in between. Image
Read 13 tweets
Jun 25
1/ Some important announcements at @AmerCompass, as we celebrate the absurd success our scrappy team has had reshaping the nation’s major policy debates and charting the course for conservative economics. You ain’t seen nothing yet… 🧵


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2/ I’m moving into the role of chief economist. Much more research and writing ahead. Of note, a weekly must-read on economics, politics, and public policy: Understanding America. It launched today. Read and subscribe here: americancompass.org/welcome-to-und…
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3/ @abigailrsal, with us since the beginning as comms director, is taking over as exec director. People are often amazed that our team of six with a budget of less than $2M looks from afar to be at least the equal of @AEI and @Heritage. That’s Abby. We are in good hands. Image
Read 10 tweets
Jun 5
1/ The long-predicted fiscal crisis is here, now. Interest payments exceeding defense spending. Deficits above $2 trillion, suppressing growth and hollowing out our economy.

As we show @AmerCompass, there's only one answer here. Call it the 19-20 solution... 🧵
2/ What is the 19-20 solution? It's pretty easy to understand. The only way to bring our budget back to balance is to get taxes and spending back to between 19 and 20% of GDP. Read between the lines, you discover there's actually incredibly broad agreement on this:
3/ Biden's White House budget, with his wish list of tax increases, gets revenue up to 20% of GDP. Trump budget director @russvought, in his @amrenewctr budget with his very good wish list of spending cuts, gets spending down to 19% of GDP (before assuming higher GDP growth).
Read 16 tweets
May 29
1/ The latest @AmerCompass podcast covers immigration.
@MarkSKrikorian cuts through the inane spin and arcane legalese to offer the clearest explanation I've heard of how the Biden admin created the border crisis and what it will take to fix it.
Here's what I learned:🧵 Image
2/ The key starting point is to change your mental picture of "illegal immigration." The term "border crisis" conjures people sneaking across unguarded expanses of wilderness. That seems like it could be hard to stop! But mostly that's not what is happening.
3/ The data you see isn't usually people sneaking into the country. After all, if we didn't catch them, how would we count them? The data is for everybody we do catch, mostly because they are eagerly turning themselves in.

Why would they do that? Image
Read 20 tweets

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