Continued... So the gov has technical control (via congressional appropriation) over all large US mining firms and serves as a monopsony buyer of all imported ASICs, but (in this scenario) does not have physical control over the site operations where the ASICs access power.
https://twitter.com/matthew_pines/status/1435291697068511245
The gov would have to spend more $ to incentivize these various utilities (in dozens of jourisdictions) to agree to sell power. Now these utilities (unless coerced, via FERC, again a judicially contestable action) would make the feds PAY, as they realize the game here...
Feds would run down the initial funding and have to go back to Congress for more $. Meanwhile, they've now bided up domestic kw/$ prices to Texas Winter Storm 2020 levels, and the worm starts turning... Congress sees the writing on the wall and balks.
Feds are left holding dead ASICS and the "signaling statement" that they thought would drive BTC into a death spiral is now seen as a paper tiger. Price begins to recover and off-grid miners that never got coopted regain control of the chain tip, making $$$$ from backlog txs...
Forgot to finish my probability estimates. For condition (1) 2.5-5% estimate of actor demonstrating sufficient motivation to initial planning for such an attack. Conditional on (1), for (2) I give ~10% of success with acquired capability. Facing such odds, unlikely they even try.
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