Do fundamentals even matter?
We may be near to, or ,many years away from,/ a reality check .
Wakeup calls are met with " This Time Is Different" insults.
Still lets try...Howard Marks had called a Dot Com Bubble in 1997. It took 3 years more to come true.
Lets see 1/n
Joby Aviation, which plans to begin an electric air taxi service in 2024, is worth more than Lufthansa, EasyJet or JetBlue. Do Fundamentals even matter ?
2/n
In January Tesla was worth more than the next nine car manufacturers combined. Now its market cap is higher than only the next six. Do Fundamentals even matter ?
3/n
Beyond Meat, made with pea protein, is worth more than the entire market for peas eaten globally.
Do Fundamentals even matter ? 4/n
Used-car sales platform Carvana is worth more than Volvo, Honda, Ford or Hyundai. Do Fundamentals even matter ?
5/n
Airbnb is worth more than Marriott and Hilton combined. Do Fundamentals even matter ? 6/n
Crypto-exchange Coinbase is worth more than the Nasdaq. Do Fundamentals even matter ? 7/n
Startups these days raise money as “the Uber of gardening” or “Space as a Service.” This was WeWork’s pitch, whose founder Adam Neumann declared in 2017, “our valuation and size today are much more based on our energy and spirituality than it is on a multiple of revenue.” 8/n
NFT Mania anyone ?
Cryptopunks, a collection of 10,000 pixel art pictures of punks, passed $1bn in sales, with one sale last Saturday drawing attention after someone made a $1.23m profit by flipping a Cryptopunk within a few hours. Tulips ? 9/n
In Russia,the State Hermitage Museum raised $400,000 by selling NFTs of six works in its collection,(Leonardo da Vinci’s Madonna and Child). The museum noted it would get all the proceeds in cash, however, rather than cryptocurrencies as per “Russian rules”. Smart . 10/n
In June, an Italian artist auctioned an invisible statue for $18,000—in reality it was an empty box the artist claimed was a “space full of energy.” The Emperor's New Clothes? 11/n
It seems that thieves and hackers are getting smarter, while investors are getting dumber.
A famous NYC artist created an NFT of an invisible rock and it sold for thousands. It was a white jpeg file.
12/n
Tascha's Destroyed Diamond: A USD 5000 Diamond was destroyed and reincarnated as an NFT ...it is now quoting at USD 137984 .
Time to convert all your life into NFTs and list it ?
13/n
Matt Levine had a take on this in a recent column :bloomberg.com/news/newslette… 14/n
This will go on well,till it suddenly does not.
We have seen this picture before.
Lets see how long the Note Printing and Helicopter Money Distribution at the root of this lasts.
Then the Music Stops and all of a sudden there are no Exits.Dont know When.. 15/15 Nearly the End.
Post Script : H/T to wsj.com/articles/low-i… Do read this great piece by Andy Kessler ....

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More from @Ajay_Bagga

11 Sep
Saw an IPO filing in an industry where my friends created a fantastic business and sold it to a Japanese conglomerate.
The claims in the filing seemed outlandish so called a few veterans of the market. 1/n
One " Story tellers have taken over fund raising.On the other side, beneficiaries of Note printing are over eager to colour the stories these imaginative,creative artists have spawned.Some will deliver good business performances,most will become giant regrets " 2/n
Second:"Its worse than 2000. In 2000,companies went public early so the retail investors lost a lot,but at initial levels of valuation. Now PE funds are dressing up companies for years & then palming them off at fantastic valuations.The losses will be much larger.Unfortuante."3/n
Read 6 tweets
9 Sep
El Salvador’s new bitcoin wallets could cost Western Union $400 million a year: In 2020, El Salvador received nearly $6 billion in remittances, which accounted for about 23% of its gross domestic product.
1/n
President Nayib Bukele estimates that money services providers like Western Union and MoneyGram will lose $400 million a year in commissions for remittances, thanks to the country’s bitcoin adoption.
Some 70% of the Salvadoran population receives remittance payments. 2/n
Remittances are one area where the status quo in the legacy financial system is terrible, with extraordinarily high fees leveled at populations that can ill afford them 3/n
Read 9 tweets
9 Sep
Ukraine is the latest country to legalize bitcoin as the cryptocurrency slowly goes global .Ukraine is the fifth country in as many weeks to lay down some ground rules for the cryptocurrency market 1/n
In a nearly unanimous vote, the Ukrainian Parliament adopted a law that legalizes and regulates cryptocurrency.Until now, crypto in Ukraine has existed in a legal gray area. 2/n
Unlike El Salvador’s move this week to adopt bitcoin as legal tender, Ukraine’s crypto law does not facilitate the rollout of bitcoin as a form of payment, nor does it put it on an equal footing with the hryvnia, the country’s national currency. 3/n
Read 4 tweets
30 Aug
Billionaire John Paulson Who Shorted Subprime, Calls Crypto ‘Worthless’ Bubble :
1.Ever since John Paulson bet against the U.S. housing market more than a decade ago, making $20 bn for himself and investors,people keep asking him about his next big trade. 1/n
2. Paulson is again seeing signs of excessive speculation and is increasingly concerned about rising prices.Rapidly expanding money supply could push inflation rates well above current expectations,he said, and gold, which he’s backed for years, is primed for its moment. 2/n
3.His harshest words are for the hottest investments of this era.SPACs, on average, will be a losing proposition,while cryptocurrencies are a bubble that will “eventually prove to be worthless.”
“I wouldn’t recommend anyone invest in cryptocurrencies” 3/n
Read 14 tweets
29 Aug
Impact of Powells Jackson Hole Speech on the markets:
1. Still in consideration on Taper of USD 120 bn of monthly purchases by the Fed.
2.Many Wall Street strategists have December as their baseline Taper start-date, so that is the neutral scenario going ahead. 1/n
3. Powells speech was seen as Dovish by the markets, in that there was no nasty surprise as given in the prior Fed meeting .Sep Fed meeting may lay down a time table..
4. The three main scenarios then are: December lift off (neutral), earlier (hawkish) and later (dovish).
2/n
5. Gold bounced over 1% on Friday after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell stopped short of signaling when the U.S. central bank would start withdrawing its economic support and reiterated his view that current price spikes are transitory. 3/n
Read 23 tweets
25 Jun
Stripe’s John Collison: The Best Of The Connected Future Is Still To Come. After 16 months of hyperactive change and adaptation, Collison points to the big picture that will emerge as a result of jamming 10 years of progress into a year and a half. 1/n
“We saw two million new businesses created on Stripe since the start of 2020.That's more than the number created in Stripe’s lifetime up to this point. I think what those two million businesses do will surprise us.” 2/n
Many of the businesses are from verticals that were slow to digitize. Healthcare is one striking example, as necessity pushed the long-reluctant segment to embrace technology that it has spent the better part of the last decades avoiding. 3/n
Read 8 tweets

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