I usually don’t watch videos. But this exposition of a possible change in the primary strategic direction of China through Ladakh & Kashmir in tandem with Pakistan, vy @PravinSawhney makes terrific sense & is a must watch.



1/2
I am generally shy of talking or writing on strategic issues b/c it leads to speculation that I find distasteful.

But I have said 2 things [a] 2 Navies face to face cannot go to war with each other. So Taiwan is a stalemate [2] Kashmir is the heart of the old & new silk route.
I also think QUAD is hot air. There is no military or strategic alliance that US has forged in the past which did not include a very substantial economic upgrade for the country joining an alliance. We don’t even have a trade deal. Nor is 1 possible given Modi’s poor economics.
Neither China nor Pakistan are in a hurry. They will take their time, build capacities, create a diversion that distracts us and then move 2 present us with a fait accompli.

No QUAD partner is going to go to war with us over Ladakh or Kashmir; unless we go into the T business.
All said, we have invited a 2 front war in the broader Kashmir region by our shallow thinking. Having done so we pretend QUAD balances things which is poppycock. There is no substance to QUAD. And finally, China can bypass the IOR through Kashmir/Afghanistan.

Watch the video.

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More from @sonaliranade

15 Sep
“Our analysis shows that India will require at least $8 trillion of cumulative gross capital formation to grow into a $5 trillion economy, assuming we are on the fastest growth track. …”

telegraphindia.com/business/deloi…

This is precisely what I write-in my essay on the Indian economy.
“…. attracting greater FDI into seven capital-intensive sectors —textile & apparel, food processing industry, electronic goods, pharmaceuticals, vehicles & parts, chemicals & API, and capital goods that have contributed $181 billion of merchandise exports in 2020-21.
“20% of GDP, or some $600 billion must come through FDI or FPI, since domestic sources have been exhausted by Government borrowings + local investment demand.  For scale & perspective, note existing FDI + FPI barely touch $100 billion a year.”

sonaliranade.substack.com/p/understandin…
Read 6 tweets
14 Sep
Aero Engines:

1. Decide the broad parameters of the jet engine you wants in consultation with IAF, publish the parameters, and invite research & development proposals from people like HAL, L&T, Tatas, etc for design & development of a prototype, one of which will be selected.
2. The developer/bidder must estimate cost, informed by cost per unit of competing global models, as a part of the bid. Of the bidders the best two will be selected for Govt support with funding of their proposed models.

They tell govt total cost of development + unit cost.
3. The competing bidders will be offered 75% of the cost of R&D and prototype for testing model. 25% to be borne by them. If promo-type pass tests, each will get a bonus another 75% of the cost to total 150%.

The prototypes will then go into production mode 4 final selection.
Read 11 tweets
13 Sep
#ArtificialIntelligence

A device like the one used in #Slaughterbots movie here, can be built by a hobbyist for less that $1000.



@pravinsawhney has been warning us like a man possessed but typical of us to mock him, rather than study the problem.
“These “slaughterbots” are not merely the stuff of fiction. One such drone nearly killed the president of Venezuela in 2018, & could be built today by an experienced hobbyist for less than $1,000. All of the parts are available 4 purchase online, & all open-source technologies”
“ .. such as how to form swarms with teamwork and redundancy, making their missions virtually unstoppable. A swarm of 10,000 drones that could wipe out half a city could theoretically cost as little as $10 million.”
Read 5 tweets
31 Jul
Modi’s #AcheDin: #Olympics since 2014.

Modi made a big show and dance about reviving manufacturing. Here is the truth.

He has beaten Pakistan as yet he is on track. Mind it. What Olympic medal to give Modi?
#AcheDin: Modi promised to create millions of jobs through manufacturing and Industry.

Here is the truth:
#AcheDin

Modi promised to double farmers’ income. Here is the truth.

The small uptick in Agriculture after 2019 id mainly due to a 50% rise in global prices & has nothing to do with Modi.
Read 15 tweets
31 Jul
“In its Democracy Report 2020, Sweden’s V-Dem Institute noted that India “has almost lost its status as a democracy”. It ranked India below Sierra Leone, Guatemala and Hungary.”

#ManKiAssalBaat
“It’s the rejection of the dogma that things can’t be changed because they’re “naturally” fixed in stone. Democracy is thus insubordination: The refusal to put up with everyday forms of snobbery and toad-eating, idolatry and lying, bulls**t and bullying.”
“They make careless, foolish, and incompetent decisions that reinforce social inequities. They license big market and government players — poligarchs — to decide things.”

Spot on Prof John Keane. Farm Bills come out of such a process.
Read 4 tweets
30 Jul
“Amit Shah, of course, is not the first provincial politician from the “mainland” to think that the north-easterners can be made to fall in a neat line, … but he is indeed the first politician who has turned ignorance and arrogance into an axiom of statecraft.”
“Yet the much-feared Modi-Shah team cannot bring about a change of leadership in Lucknow. The good yogi has got of the measure of the fearsome duo. Not only that, the prime minister has been forced to sing hymns in praise of the blundering Yogi regime.”

Harish Khare plain-speak.
“From Shillong to Dehradun and Bengaluru to Lucknow, the cumulative evidence reminds us once again of how inherently over-rated the Shahenshah and Shah arrangement is. There is a certain inevitability about these deficiencies and delinquencies.”
Read 7 tweets

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