It is hard to explain to people who have not run campaigns before how staying on message matters. People assume the media can steer your message, but they can only steer it if you let them. The moment the CA recall became Newsom v. Elder, Newsom won it. It didn't have to be.
Yes, the media wanted to make it all about Larry Elder, but Elder and conservatives helped. They should have stayed off Fox. When the media made accusations, the response could have been, "This recall is about Newsom's failure to lead, not me."
When the issues come up and the media asks the candidates what they stand for or what they'll do differently, again, they make the indictment on Newsom.
"Gavin Newsom kept people locked up at home while he was out at restaurants. He made your kids mask up while his kids didn't. He treated the elite of California differently from the rest of California. I won't do that."
By allowing the media to steer it to a Newsom v. Particular Candidate, the media was able to shape the contrasts. Again, if you're not in campaigns, you think that is inevitably going to happen. But smart campaigns know how to deflect back on message.
The message was always "this is about Newsom." But about a month or so ago, it stopped being about Newsom and started being about his replacement. The polls thereafter shifted into Newsom's favor.
If Newsom loses, the polling industry will have to go out of business altogether. But looking at the turnout and who has voted, it looks like Newsom will get by.

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More from @EWErickson

19 Jul
I'm disappointed with this @realDailyWire piece.… The left does this to the right all the time: assume because someone hasn't tweeted against something they must be for it. To think @BethMooreLPM @trillianewbell @timkellernyc are for Cuba is nuts.
I realize people of a certain type think unless it happens on Twitter, it didn't happen, but that shows a shallowness detached from the real world. It's a juvenile game of gotcha against good people who I guess can be smeared because they didn't hump Donald Trump's leg.
But I personally think this falls beneath the standards I've long appreciated from @realDailyWire to attack people for not speaking up on policy X because they spoke up on policy Y. I think the right should have higher standards, particularly against solid Christian men and women
Read 4 tweets
18 Jul
We live perpetually in the land of the boy who cried wolf. Tucker Carlson’s audience is around 3 million people. A media that thinks it is super influential is predisposed to blaming him for many millions more than his ratings not getting vaccinated. What if instead
It was the government healthcare experts and media together telling us not to wear mask, then to wear masks. Then they said to follow the science and shut down schools despite the science saying otherwise. Then the forced masks outdoors.
Then they said the British variant would kill us all. Then the South African variant would. Then the Brazilian variant would. Then the Indian variant that we now must call the Delta variant. At some point, people just tune it all out and stop caring.
Read 5 tweets
13 Jul
Remember when the GOP took to the House floor during recess to demand more drilling? Pelosi turned off the lights and cameras. The GOP used cell phones and interviews to get the word out. Conservatives loved it.
But the American media dismissed it all as performance and stunt because there was no chance their drilling legislation would pass.
Now, Democrats are engaged in performance stunt relating to the For the People Act, legislation which will not pass. But the media covers every Dem protest as meaningful and significant. The TX-Dems are like martyrs for a cause. But HR1 still won't pass and everyone knows it.
Read 4 tweets
12 Jul
Bryan Rhoden is charged with murdering three men, including a golf pro who he shot in the head when the golf pro went to check on Rhoden, who wrecked a truck on the course.
A few years ago, Rhoden got shot in the chest and another college student was shot three times with Rhoden’s gun during a drug deal. He wasn’t prosecuted.
Last year, Rhoden assaulted two police officers at the Atlanta airport. He was let out of jail.
Read 8 tweets
10 May
The left's solution to employers who can't find employees is for the employers to raise wages. Those wages are then passed on to consumers with higher prices. What is missing is that
a lot of consumers who'll go to those restaurants and shops never lost their jobs and haven't gotten pay raises, so will have less spending money when prices go up to compensate for rising wages at the restaurants and shops.
That means consumers will spend less and dine less, which will kill those businesses. Saying, "Just pay more than unemployment" sounds good till you realize the person doing that passes the costs on to the consumer who hasn't gotten pay raises because they never lost jobs.
Read 4 tweets
23 Apr
I want to tell you why @GlennKesslerWP and @washingtonpost should apologize for what they have done today. They attempted to tell the story of a black man in the South by looking at public records. That’s relevant because at that time
“Separate but equal” was a legal standard. It was separate, but it was never equal. @GlennKesslerWP tries to tell the story of Scott’s family amassing land after the Civil War and can’t see the story of southern whites fighting back.
By the time @SenatorTimScott’s grandfather is born, black families are having to abandon schooling in the south because it isn’t good, it isn’t equal, and it is very separate. They’ve got to go save their land.
Read 6 tweets

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