Here's your AB COVID # analysis for Tues Sept 14th. 1/
Cases/d yest 1459, a 12.5% incr over last Mon's 1296. 7d ave now 1487 up 16% in 7 d from 1282. (yest 16%). positivity 12.18 (last wk 12.77, creepily stable at 11-12, too high showing we're missing tonnes of community spread) 2/
Hospitalizations: inpts: Wed +11 to 553 (revised from 548 yest 539 Fri and 525 Thurs) Thus -2 to 551 (revised from 549 yest and 517 Fri) Fri +33 to 584 (revised from 578 yest) Sat +13 to 597 (revised from 588 yest) Sun +31 to 628 (revised from 605 yest). 3/
Yest -18 to 610 (Not real. please ignore. posted for reference only). 7d incr Fri to Fri of 29% (yest 26%) doubling time 16.5d (yest 16.5). ICU +14 (7% in one day!) to 212. 7d incr of 51.4%. Doubling time 14d (so incredibly stable, and scary). Projecting 400+ ICU 30 Sept. 4/
Deaths 9, includes a 20 year old F in the south. Remember these are all preventable deaths and illnesses. Pretty clear deaths of the #intentionallycruelwave will far surpass that of the 3rd #predictableandpreventable wave. 5/
Meanwhile, predictably, and preventable, rise in the 5-11 BECAUSE THERE ARE NEXT TO NO MITIGATION MEASURES IN SCHOOLS AND KIDS ARE GETTING SICK THIS IS CRIMINAL (sorry for yelling). And note increaseingly hospitalizations in this group, every day. 6/
Today they introduced a non-vaccine passport vaccine passport. This will not be enough to stem the curve. We need massive measures, yest, which includes closure of inperson learning in schools and unis (and support for parents, and new mitigation measures... 7/
installed during the break), closure of indoor dining and drinking, gathering limits indoors and outdoors... anything left will fail. And we are already failing so badly. Remember 2 weeks for any new policy to roll through to cases/day, longer to step climb of ICU/Hosp. 8/
Don't know what to tell you folks. We continue to be in real trouble. Health care system in jeopardy. society at risk. Call your MLAs. Pray for sanity. fin/
Thanks to @CBCFletch and AB health and @ArynToombs and @cspotweet for the images.

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More from @jvipondmd

16 Sep
Here's your AB COVID # analysis for Wed Sept 15th, and some thoughts on the presser today, and on some of the measures announced (and not announced). 1/
Yest Cases/d 1659, a 35.7% incr over last Tues 1222. 7d ave now 1543, a 21.8% incr over last wk's 1266 (yest 16%). Positivity 10.46%, last Tues 11.67%, a nice drop... but a single data point does not a trend make. Here's hoping, though. 2/ ImageImageImage
Hospitalizations: inpts: Last Wed +12 to 556 (revised from 553yest 548 Mon 539 Fri and 525 Thurs). Thurs -1 to 555 (revised from 551 yest 549 Mon and 517 Fri) Fri +32 to 587 (revised from 584yest and 578 Mon) Sat +9 to 596 (revised from 597 yest and 588 Mon) 3/
Read 25 tweets
15 Sep
A short ๐Ÿงต on the #intentionallycruelwave in Alberta. 1/
No matter how you slice it, crafting policy to intentionally cause infection, death, and longterm disability among Albertan kids and adults, causing health care collapse, is unbelievably cruel. How did it come to this? 2/ bmj.com/content/372/bmโ€ฆ
Even if unintentional (which I doubt, show me the receipts, how can the result not telling parents of infection in their classes not be obvious?), once the consequences of the policy were evident, why not reverse the policy, and try and save lives? Isn't that the gov'ts job? 3/
Read 6 tweets
13 Sep
Here's your AB COVID # analysis for Mon Sept 13 covering the 3 days of Fri/Sat/Sun. 1/
Cases/d Fri 1667 a 27% incr from last Fri's 1312. Sat 1503 up 4% from 1447. Sun 1592 up 96% from 813 (this is a surprising # for Sun, typically our quietest day for testing). 7d av 1468 up 16% from 1278 a week ago (graph courtesy @CBCFletch). 2/
Positivity Fri 11.60% (last week 12.86%), Sat 12.17% (11.40%), Sun 12.01% (11.07%). Surprisingly very stable (and way way too high, but what do you expect when you discontinue contact tracing). 3/
Read 12 tweets
12 Sep
A thread on current numbers, and some predictions: 1/
Some of you who have followed me a long time might remember these daily tweets, using case rates of hosp, ICU and deaths to figure out what resulting severe outcomes might be from a single day's case #. 2/
It was remarkably accurate. Unfortunately. And hopefully put into context the wall of data we are confronted with, daily. 3/
Read 10 tweets
10 Sep
Here's your AB COVID # analysis for Fri Sept 10th. 1/
Cases/d 1498, a 5% incr over last Thurs's 1426. 7d Ave 1302, a 13% incr over last week's 1152. Positivity 10.93 %(Last Thus 11.51%). While this flattening of both curves is reassuring, I'm worried we won't be actually bending the curve without real public health measures. 2/
Delta: Sept 2nd 1256/1426=88% of days cases. Sept 3rd 1156/1312=88%. Sept 4th 1286/1446=89%. Today AB Health announced the end to routine screening for VoCs, so there will be limited information on this going forward. 3/
Read 11 tweets
10 Sep
Hey Parkland County School trustees! You've earned a thread based on your participation in the #IntentionallyCruelWave. So received this today. 1/
This is the letter parents received yesterday from the board of trustees, hiding under the (obviously outdated) guidance given by the @CMOH_Alberta on Aug 13th. 2/
Meanwhile, staff received this note yesterday, with trustees rejecting a mask mandate, based on the (outdated, as from Aug 13th) advice of the CMOH. 2/
Read 4 tweets

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