BIG jump in UK CPI inflation.
Up from annual rate of 2% in July to 3.2% in Aug.
Not just the highest level of inflation since 2012, it’s also the biggest month-on-month change in the level in the history of this inflation measure (going back to 1997)
Here’s one reason to believe the inflation rise may be temporary: the main contributing factor was a BIG jump in prices, this year vs last, in restaurants.
And what was happening last year? Eat Out to Help Out.
Once that washes out, some of the upward pressure should go away…
Here’s a reason to believe the rise in inflation may NOT be temporary. Lots of pricing pressure in the pipeline, inc THIS: energy prices are going up v v fast, which will feed into household bills in the coming months. And that’s before you consider costs of raw goods…
You don’t have to look far to find other prices rising very FAST. These are factory gate prices - in other words the wholesale prices companies (as opposed to consumers) pay for materials. And just look: from metals to chemicals to wood, they’re all rising at record rates…
On top of everything else, here’s another inflationary side-effect of the semiconductor shortage.
Not enough chips to go into new cars means not enough new cars which means used car prices are going through the roof (dotted line compares price growth this yr with previous years)
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If the main thing the US really wants out of a deal with Ukraine is "50% of its rare earth minerals" then I'm surprised this can't be wrapped up pretty quickly.
Why? Because Ukraine doesn't HAVE many rare earth resources.
Really. As far as anyone knows it's got barely any...
Yes, Ukraine has lots of coal and iron and manganese.
It also has some potential sizeable reserves of stuff like titanium, graphite and lithium. Not to mention some promising shale gas.
But of the 109 deposits identified by KSE only 3 are rare earth elements
Now in one respect I'm making a pedantic point: a lot of people say "rare earth elements" when they actually mean "critical minerals".
The two aren't the same thing.
Rare earth elements are a v specific bit of the periodic table: actually they're NOT all that rare.
More on them👇
🧵THE STRANGE CASE OF THE ONE MILLION POUND FINE
The story of an obscure press release on an obscure website which begs intriguing questions about Britain's "unprecedentedly tough" sanctions regime & why perhaps it's not quite as tough as it looks.
You may find it unsettling
👇
Back in Aug 2023, HMRC published this notice in the bowels of its website. Don't worry if it doesn't ring a bell - it didn't get any publicity.
But it's a big deal. A £1m fine for breaking Russian sanctions rules.
The single biggest fine in relation to trade sanctions.
But there are some gaping questions about this fine.
First: who paid it? Is this a firm we've heard of? Second: what did they actually do wrong? And what did they do to deserve to pay such a large sum?
There are no answers on the website. That's it. Here's why this matters.
🇨🇳I was rather hoping to be writing this from China, where the Chancellor has just landed for the most significant economic mission in ages - restarting Britain's formal economic relationship with China.
Alas I'm still in London.
But make no mistake; this visit is a BIG deal.
🧵
Why?
Because this is the first such trip since 2017.
UK econ relations with China have been getting frostier for 6 yrs or more.
Huawei have been thrown out; rules imposed on Chinese businesspeople; accusations of spying.
& around the world nations are imposing tariffs on China.
But the UK is doing something different.
While nearly every other G7 nation has imposed tariffs on Chinese electric cars, the UK hasn't. While most countries are going colder on China (most notably the US), the UK is now cosying up to China. Why?
🔥GAS PRICES🔥
Why are they on the rise again?
Why is Europe (and the UK) deindustrialising at a rapid pace?
Why have we failed (contrary to the conventional wisdom) to increase the amount of non-Russian gas in our system?
Lots of questions. Some answers in my five min primer 👇
This is a big deal - and not widely understood:
The volume of non-Russian gas in the European system is FLAT vs before the Ukraine war.
That's not the conventional wisdom.
Back in 2022 many assumed imported LNG would help make up the lost gas from Russia.
That didn't happen...
Instead what happened is subtly, but importantly, different.
Yes, the amount of LNG coming in from the US rose quite sharply - albeit from a low base.
But that rise was only enough to compensate for the fact that domestic production in the UK/EU was FALLING at the same time
🌾 VERTICAL FARMING🌾
Could it save the world?
I used to be sceptical. There are MANY challenges.
But then I visited one. & I'm no longer so sure.
So with the world facing future food crises here's a thread on the most interesting thing to happen to farming in a long time...
🧵
Let's start with a chart.
A few weeks ago I did a deep data dive into the state of farming in the UK.
It culminated with a v long-run chart suggesting our ability to grow ever more crops in a given hectare is slowing. Possibly stalling.
This is a really big deal
What if we could send the line in that chart 👇into the stratosphere?
It would have massive consequences. We'd be able to get ever more food from a relatively small section of land. Meaning more land for housing/rewilding or whatever else we'd want to use it for. But how?
If you're interested in energy/climate you've probably heard the nugget that "kerosene/crude oil helped save the whales", by reducing demand for whale oil in lanterns.
I've even trotted it out myself🤦♂️
But there's a problem with it. A BIG problem...
🧵
The backstory here begins 200 years ago, before the age of crude oil & electricity, when the best way to light a room was a lantern, and the best oil to burn in that lantern was oil from a sperm whale.
It burnt brighter and with less smoke or stink than other oils
The oil itself is found in the head of the sperm whale. It comes from a totally unique organ whose function remains a matter of debate - the spermaceti organ.
Whale oil is a long chain molecule unlike nearly anything else in the natural world, giving it unique qualities