I have been reading and listening to a lot of analyses of the reshuffle. Pretty much all of them seem to me to be wide of the mark. THREAD 1/14
Commentators, backbenchers and policy analysts all speak as though the detail of policy matters. In the real world, of course it does.
But, in the mind of the PM and his top advisors, it hardly matters at all. And that explains a lot. 2/
Trying to read the runes, to work out the direction of travel, to put flesh onto the bones of Johnsonism (or whatever), is likely to be an unsatisfactory exercise. 3/
In the mind of the PM, what matters is the pursuit of power. He is, as I have written several times, single-minded in the pursuit of power, and does all he can to resist constraints on that power. blogs.lse.ac.uk/brexit/2020/02… 4/
He is not interested in policy, let alone policy detail. I struggle to understand how many seem to think he has any convictions about (eg) Brexit, climate change, levelling up, culture wars, etc. 5/
He transparently does not. He doesn't care one way or another how policy develops.
All he cares about is how policy plays with first the Tory Party and its supporters, and second the voters. 6/
That helps to explain some of the sackings. Ministers whose stock has fallen with the Party are vulnerable. 7/
The task of new Ministers is not to deliver a particular agenda, but to keep themselves, and the Party, popular. 8/
A good example is levelling up - now ludicrously restyled as levelling up *the whole country*. The task facing Michael Gove, is not to regenerate 'the North' or 'the Red Wall', but ensure that the Tories maintain support (in key seats) across the whole country. 9/
It doesn't matter what the outcome is, so long as 'the North' is persuaded that the Govt is working for the North, and the South is persuaded that it will not lose its advantages. 10/
That won't make for coherent policy. It won't be easy. But Michael Gove may have the requisite skill set - telling people what they want to hear, and shamelessly denying the contradictions inherent in the message. 11/
The key things are not policy (which will, in the best traditions of short-termism, shift with public opinion), but instead party management, coupled with management of Parliament, the courts and the media. 12/
The reshuffle is intended to portray energy (working tirelessly, getting on with the job) and renewal.
Johnson will revel in the various attempts to formulate an 'intellectual case' for his Prime Ministership. 13/
So... All that happened yesterday was the removal of the least popular members of his team.
I see next to no prospect of a change in policy direction... unless (as before) there is a strong enough sense that the popular will is shifting. 14/14
I'm just back from doing the shop, and this has gone a bit crazy! Thanks for all the comments - I'll start to work my way through them now.
It is depressing (sorry); it is difficult to come to terms with a populist policy vacuum.
Probably not one for the heat of the election battle, but for me at least, something which goes to the core of the damage done by this Govt.
It is about the Govt's relationship with the set of institutions listed below. THREAD 1/8
I'm thinking of Parliament, the justice system, the Church, the armed forces, transport, schools, local government, the BBC, the NHS, social care systems, welfare systems, schools, universities, utility companies, the post office, the National Trust, libraries, etc 2/8
It's difficult to know just how to describe them.
Perhaps... what used to be 'the public realm'?
In any case, they now have a range of very different relationships with the 'state'. 3/8
After yesterday's intervention on net-zero, it's time for an assessment of Rishi Sunak.
TL;DR: he's doomed.🧵1/11
The core difficulty he faces, is the same core difficulty faced by all PMs since that fateful day in 2016.
He is having to navigate the gap - the chasm, rather - between the wishes and dreams of the Tory Right and reality/public opinion. 2/
Let's look at how his predecessors sought to navigate that chasm.
Liz Truss fully embraced the wishes and dreams of the Right, earned (and is still earning (ker-ching)) rave reviews from those groups... and lasted 45 days. Reality could not endure her. 3/
We know that the plans of governments are often derailed by 'events'... and we know that, in recent years, COVID and the war in Ukraine have been hugely significant and disruptive.
But I'm becoming increasingly annoyed by the Govt's use of 'events' as an excuse. 🧵1/6
The most recent example is the attempt to blame striking NHS staff for the failure of the Govt to achieve its NHS waiting list targets.
Well... if the Govt doesn't invest in staff, then staff shortages, and strikes, are a predictable response. 2/
Similarly, if the Govt doesn't invest in school buildings, it is likely to encounter problems (like RAAC) which will lead to school closures and disruption to education. 3/
So... in the wake of the Starmer Express interview (personal highlight that our European 'friends' are 'eating our lunch' and 'nicking our dinner money too' (no, me neither)), what are people expecting a Starmer Govt to do on the question of Europe? 1/6
I see a lot of comments to the effect that he is saying what (he thinks) needs to be said in order to win an election.
This tends to be accompanied by hope (for others, fear) that, if he wins, he will change tack, and reveal his true colours. 2/
It is true that nothing he says now will in any meaningful sense 'bind' him if he wins power. He will have a free hand.
People point out the consequences of being outside the EU, eg the extra checks required for people and goods to access the EU market.
And other people respond by saying it’s nothing to do with Brexit (and/or the EU’s fault). 1/6
Obviously all sorts of factors combine to produce effects on the economy.
Covid, the war in Ukraine, and govt ineptitude all play a role.
And so does Brexit. 2/6
Cooperating with other countries is the way to reduce trade frictions.
That’s why trade deals matter - you can negotiate for better access than you otherwise would have, returns agreements, participation in shared projects, etc etc. 3/6