@lux_schwab wrote this article and @JenMcDowell9 was keen to know what I thought. I think that it would be easy to share Adam's view if you didn't really understand the context around the statistics here, nor the policy environment. I'll tag in @stephenjduckett and @jackiesoftly.
2/ One very important disclaimer - it's impossible to compare our data with overseas data. Because a) we do not have transparency of data (a story coming out about this by a few good Canberra journos about this soon) and b) we did not enact the 1a and 1b rollout before Delta hit.
3/ So - we have unknown large numbers of unprotected, vulnerable citizens in the middle of a public health crisis, with limited health resources. This is not comparable to the issues faced by other Western countries.

Let's start with last year.
4/ To October of last year, pre Delta, this is what we knew about underlying conditions. Which are captured by datasets by WHO and then the country's own. Note: Australia datasets do not include disability in the same way other countries do. We are invisible on paper.
5/ Last year, 72.7% of people who died from COVID-19 had pre-existing chronic conditions certified on the death certificate. This would seem to back up the author's POV.

But. In Australia, information on deaths from COVID-19 is collected through a disease surveillance system.
6/ This system provides daily information on both infections and mortality.

Mortality data compiled by the ABS is not based on this daily surveillance. Instead, it is based on death registrations processed by the jurisdictional Registries of Births, Deaths and Marriages...
7/ ...and information on the cause of death sourced from a Medical Certificate of Cause of Death (MCCD) completed by a certifying practitioner.

COVID-19 was the underlying cause of death for 682 registered deaths occurring up to 31 August 2020.
8/ The WHO defines the underlying cause of death as the disease or condition that initiated the train of morbid events leading to death.

But context is important and I want you to remember this. This was 2020 and pre Delta and pre vaccines - yes?
9/ There were 648 deaths in aged care settings in Victoria to December 2020 - a high number of the deaths we were talking about last year were among older Australians who had disabilities/underlying conditions as a result of age, but they were also living in congregate settings.
10/ Adam, from a brief look at his Twitter feed (sorry, Adam, I firmly believe in your point of view being heard, I am just keen to improve your learning about this) might not get this salient point. Because it's not just wheezy, failing bodies that drop off the perch.
11/ Nor is it bodies that are a bit more shit than yours, comforting though that is to think. It's also because of non clinical vulnerabilities, including viral load (go look at the health workers' death rates) and congregate settings.
12/ Think of every institution as a non floating Ruby Princess.

Here's a better framework to help you think about risk, because you are not quite understanding what this looks like.

Because no, obesity doesn't cause you to die of COVID. Neither does dementia, by itself.
13/ Correlation doesn't imply causation. And you should also understand the complexities around obesity, including socioeconomic and other factors. But what does obesity cause?
Cardiovascular (heart) disease.
High blood pressure, or hypertension.
Diabetes.
Sound familiar?
14/ Think about the chart above for a minute. Now think about the risk factors and 'underlying conditions'. Let's take, idk, Down syndrome as an underlying condition.

People with Down syndrome are more likely to experience obesity because of muscle tone and gut abnormalities.
15/ (Don't take my word for any of this, you have Google and you're young and fresh and raring to write about shit, off you go :D) medcraveonline.com/AOWMC/relation…

But then think about the other factors in non clinical vulnerability.

More likely to have a learning disability.
16/ More likely to live in institutions, including group homes, or work in congregate settings.
More likely to need assistance to get vaccinated and need accessible language for information.
Co-occurring heart condition.

And wham! You're 36x more likely to die.
17/ Jackie can tell you more about this, or any of the Down syndrome associations. But it is still not US, I hear you cry.

Wrong, lovey.

Cos this is Delta. Remember all that chatter about schools? You didn't read enough. It's not cos the kiddies are inherently vulnerable.
18/ It's because they are in institutions. What do you think schools are?

Let's go back to last year's dead people. Almost all deaths due to COVID-19 have other conditions listed on the death certificate (87.2%).
19/ Almost two-fifths of all certificates had both a causal sequence and pre-existing conditions listed on the certificate.

On average, deaths due to COVID-19 had 2.4 other diseases and conditions certified alongside the virus.
But then look at the underlying conditions.
20/ I am not a doctor and neither are you. But I am a fairly well informed commentator who has been around a long time in disability and health spaces.

Dementia was present in almost half the cases. But correlation doesn't imply causation, remember?
21/ They are not dead because they were old.
Nor are they dead because they had dementia.
They are dead because they shared care, had multiple transmission points, lived in an institutional settings,
had disabilities caused by age, including health conditions. Old hearts, lungs.
22/ In the UK and USA, the clinically vulnerable people got vaccinated first. Not so, here. Go look up the failure of the 1a and 1b rollout. We do not have any idea who is at risk and who is not. No Shielded Person List in Australia.

But we do know the numbers, roughly.
23/ They are as Stephen says and they are not hard to look up. One person is diagnosed with cancer every four minutes. aihw.gov.au/reports/cancer… And remember, this is anyone who has ever had cancer. And we do not have a third jab yet for those with compromised autoimmune systems.
24/ Go look up the stats properly and @crikey_news, do better. You need to understand complexity in analysing data and understanding issues. aihw.gov.au/reports-data/h…

While you're there, look up Aboriginal people and chronic illness. Then look up where and how they live.
25/ Look up the number of Aboriginal ppl in prisons & overcrowding issues in houses & the availability of health services in the Kimberley then go read up on ventilation on the very good Ozsage.org page.

And when you have read all that, get back to us. Good luck.

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More from @criprights

19 Sep
I often see these absolutely hideous faux romantic reproductions in marketplace

and think of the awful Mills & Boon novels my neighbour read incessantly
but part of me is wistful that disabled women are so rarely objectified in this way

we are eternal children, never sexual ImageImage
2/ What a dreadful thing to be excluded from
You would think it would be a good thing, right?
but it is about being 'part of the womanhood'
so many women have never experienced that kind of oppression
It's a good thing, but then again
It's not.
3/ I bet so many women would say that
disabled women should be grateful for this.
It's a little like saying that you should be glad if you
never menstruate
and there are always other ways to do something, true
but that doesn't stop those women wanting the same.
Read 4 tweets
19 Sep
This is a very good video, from the OZSAGE website at ozsage.org. You can follow them at @RealOzSAGE.



You want to do something positive? Start a #VentilationRevolution. We are coming into summer.

Go on, do it. Open up a window.
2/ If you're a disabled person or run a service, think about buying a hepafilter or installing another type of mechanical ventilation device.

If you're poor and live in a community with crowded housing, work out how you can change that. We need to live differently.
3/ All these entitled manbabies with umbrellas (for some reason, the umbrellas in Melbourne amused me a great deal) crying about their fresh air - my loves, there is fresh air in your back yard or balcony. There is not special fresh air on the beach, no matter what Bolt says.
Read 18 tweets
19 Sep
Aw, thanks for the welcome laugh!

There are many lots of inbox messages & many hundreds of emails every day, so I do not ever get to my others folder. I figure they will friend request.

But I accidentally clicked on the others folder and then had a seriously needed belly laugh. Image
2/ Fake account called 'Branimir' who says with her deliberately misspelled language, 'Your still a cow'. Then blocks.

Some hints for bitter pretenders. I am feeling charitable.

If you're going to use male names for your fake accounts, the slurs are different. So is behaviour.
3/ 'Cow' is an almost uniquely gendered term, used by older women against women. Usually women who have some kind of British life influence. It's not Australian by nature and it is something generally used by the privileged & those who don't want to drop the other 'c' bomb.
Read 10 tweets
18 Sep
Dear @theheraldsun and @dailytelegraph, nothing personal, but I've lodged a @AusPressCouncil complaint tonight against your columnist, Andrew Bolt, on the basis of this article.
I would have done the same thing if he told everyone to drive drunk, too. Letting you know here first. Image
2/ Perhaps you could publish some content about why killing kids in wheelchairs is a horrible idea and un-Australian and why inciting riots is a terrible idea in a public health crisis.

Six police officers were hospitalised and many others injured.
3/ That doesn't count the potential toll to their lives and the lives of family members of the violent thugs who rioted in the streets of Melbourne today. #melbourneprotests

Shall we make up our own driving laws, too? Our own drinking rules? What about our own drug laws?
Read 9 tweets
18 Sep
1. Being told for two years that I would have leave campus to piss because no accessible toilet
2. Being sexually assaulted by my 40 years older boss in the office (I was 23)
3. Being driven by a colleague to a desolate rural location and propositioned with no prospect of escape
2/ For those interested in the outcomes, legal action, some casual childhood sexual abuse survivor ultraviolence on my part, told his wife (he had claimed they had an open relationship, they didn’t, sorry Torben, you suck).

Too many to count really.
3/ Shout out to Stan who told me that we were selling real estate, not sex (very early twenties for a short period, above knee length skirt, was still a walker, am five foot ten).

So much casual misogyny.
Read 5 tweets
17 Sep
The ABC are here in an hour and a half and I am crying furiously over a dead girl in a Life without Barriers group home in Wyong, NSW. I had never met her. It doesn't matter that I never met her.

Two young people in their twenties. 24 people in 24 hours.
2/ I am not talking about COVID in this interview. It is about the NDIS.
There are other interviews lined up for today. Please do your own yelling, as much as you can. Contact government directly. Demand action.
This is involuntary euthanasia against clinically vulnerable people.
3/ The questions you journalists NEED to ask are - about the abandonment of the 1a and 1b rollout, the numbers of Aboriginal and disabled people who are dying, the concealment of data and information, what is in place to protect those most at risk and why the rates are so low.
Read 5 tweets

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