Managed by @Wojtek7919, who in his Swedish hat (!) might be able to answer further questions/correct me.
I get a great vibe from talking with this guy. A thrifty character with skin in the game. He will blow (a little) cash on non-core projects.
This may paint a complex equity story, but it doesn't matter. The core business affords this.
Here's an investor chat: sii.org.pl/13648/aktualno…
Ifirma doesn't share Fortnox's growth strategy of partnering with accounting firms. Instead, Polish accounting firms see Ifirma as a "ruthless competitor, and rightly so" (Wojciech in an email exchange).
So don't expect Fortnox growth rates. But the lock-in/moat could be more significant for Ifirma.
Ifirma has 3 segments; core SaaS/accounting office, outsourcing/recruitment, and a new CRM product. I would have preferred just core, but guess the recruitment hustle at least eases talent restraints in core. CRM also seems to be a low-risk bet in terms of invested capital
The "internet accounting" (think Fortnox) has a fixed subscription price (hiked price in May of about 25%-30%), and the "accounting office" is based on docs sent. 94% of 1H21 revenues were from core.
"Our profits (and margins) will most likely be much higher this year, and likely again next year, because of new pricing introduced in Q2 and growth of the customer base." - Wojciech in an email
Assuming a step up to an 18% EBIT margin in 2025, 70% cash conversion of EBIT until then, a 12% average revenue growth rate, and an exit multiple of 20x EBIT 2025E would yield an IRR of >15%. Feels reasonable enough.
I'm long. No advice.
• • •
Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to
force a refresh
# diluted shares (counting the 410k "A1" shares as 1.5x (entitled to 1.5x divvies of common) and incl. 67.5k from warrants=1,688,496
Share price (after I nibbled a bit too hard today)=40
Net debt likely c.0 after government grant in Oct
EV & MC= c. PLN 68m
Churn is high (anyone with industry benchmarks?).
But cohorts experience significantly higher churn in their first few months, making 90% monthly subscriber renewal (at time of IPO) hopefully a little skewed after the covid boost.
Emerging niche leader manufacturer focused on R&D, exporting to 40+ countries
Why should an opportunity exist?
-Polish listed co barely passing the USD 100m market cap mark. Illiquid w/o analyst coverage
-Financial hiccups around 2014 due to the Russo-Ukraine war make a first glance nonrepresentative (Eastern Europe was 1/3 of sales then, now under 10%)
-Decora has since focused on profitability with their proprietary "HD Mineral Core" vinyl flooring. The vinyl can be made to look like a variety of wood but is waterproof, doesn't need maintenance, & is efficient for underfloor heating