SAINIK Profile picture
22 Sep, 23 tweets, 6 min read
1. Different Scenarios & Conclusions. A longish thread. Characteristics of Inflation & Deflation. The CBs are making it sound we are in a deflationary situation by calling Inflation as 'Transitory". Do you believe them ?
2. What then is Hyperinflation ?. This may happen if we continue to pump money regardless of the inflationary forces raising their head.
3. How frequent is Hyperinflation & why did it happen?
4. Disinflation vs Deflation
5. What is Stagflation :
6. Inflation vs Stagflation : Decide for yourselves in which situation we are in today in India.
7. In my opinion, we are approaching a stagflationary environment in India, if not already there.
8. Is Inflation transitory ? CRB INDEX is at a 6 year high. Index has been going up steadily since bottoming out in April 2020.
9. The Baltic Dry Index is at a 12 year high. It now costs up to six times more to ship a container from China to Europe than it did at the start of 2019.
10. Brent Oil is at a 3 year high
11. Natural Gas Index is at least at a 6 year high since data was available only from 2015 onwards. Surging natural gas prices means it will be costlier to power factories or produce petrochemicals, rattling every corner of the global economy and fuelling inflation fears.
12. Effective Jan. 3, 2022 FedEx Express package and freight standard list rates will increase an average of 5.9% for U.S., U.S. export, and U.S. import services. FedEx Ground standard list rates will increase an average of 5.9%. Plus other costs
13.Imports are likely to be more expensive since Dollar is very firm despite all the Gurus expecting a collapse of DXY to 80-85.
14. While many countries have started tightening monetary policy US/Europe/Japan & India are still loosening. India is having negative Interest rates & RBI continues to have a loose policy in a stagflationary environment. Who will foot the bill ?
15. What will FED do in the current situation ?. Please read an interesting & thought provoking take.…
16. In my opinion sustained Inflation will be "the pin "
that will burst the Mania Balloon. Expected a topping out in risk assets in Sep & major drawdown by end Dec. I could be a little early, but wonder how the inevitable can be avoided. Hope I am wrong. Thanks for reading.
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More from @sainik636

22 Sep
1.Opinion trump Facts : Was hearing @udayanmukharji's show where Ridham says he has been tracking Sensex since 1985. Sensex came into being only in 1986. ( Jan 2nd 1986 ) 😳
2. In the same program Udayan asks as to what will be the trigger for a major global correction. He should know that there are NO identifiable triggers for any Top/major correction. 🙄
3. @ShekharGupta also on the Evergrande issue. He was saying global markets are already having severe falls because of this fear, including India. All he needed to check was the last couple of weeks moves. Or for that matter even yesterday's moves, especially the US opening.😬
Read 5 tweets
12 Sep
@Jai_hyderabad @vka27 . A thread on Health & Sport. "If I can do it, anyone can do it ". Just like the Stock Markets. Running a Marathon requires the same kind of skill sets as Investing in the Stock Market. Here I am just describing my Running Experience (1/n)
2. In early 2015, when I was around 54 years, the running bug bit me when I saw a friend of mine running on the Marina Beach. He introduced me to Marina Minnals one of the many running groups which are based out of Chennai.
3. In College I was into Sports, mainly short sprints having represented college in various Inter-Collegiate Meets, but anything above 400 m was Hell for me. In 2015 my Running group friends helped me to navigate Hell.
Read 12 tweets
6 Sep
1.“The Dog that Didn’t Bark”
Gregory: “Is there any other point to which you would wish to draw my attention?”
Holmes: “To the curious incident of the dog in the night-time.”
Gregory: “The dog did nothing in the night-time.”
Holmes: “That was the curious incident.”
2.Since 2008, when FED started its QE there was a fear that the wall of Liquidity would lead to very high Inflation, bordering on Hyperinflation.
However, that did not happen flummoxed the best of the minds.
3. In the last one year due to COVID the concept of “HELICOPTER MONEY’ which was touted by Bernanke in the early 2000’s as one solution to take care of low growth. So how is Helicopter Money different from Quantitative Easing?.
Read 21 tweets
5 Sep
1. MY BIGGEST REGRET : Recently on a CH session, a guy asked me whether I regretted my decision to accumulate Dec Put options in end July when Nifty was around 16k. My reply : I never regret my actions made after a great amount of study so long as only I lose money.
2. Regret happens when others take my advice & lose money or don't make money. However in the past have regretted since others took my advice & lost an opportunity.
3. July 2013. Had identified a stock after a great deal of Research, which then was the most hated. Had traded a long time b/w Rs.21-24 & rapidly fell to Rs.18 when it caught my attention. Immediately alerted everyone I knew that it was a bargain for LT. Most believed me & acted.
Read 11 tweets
3 Sep
1. Time to validate what this 91 year old gentleman says :
2. My good friend @Prashanth_Krish supplied me this data on MF flows in the past
3. This I picked from Mint :
Read 6 tweets
1 Sep
1. ONE LONE VOICE ...... Q: If a tree falls in a forest, and there’s no one around to hear it, does it make a sound?🙄 Another "rant" in 10 parts.
2. Yesterday, I ranted through 25 Tweets on the current market conditions. Going by the response, the above question assumes relevance. Adding another edition today in the fond hope that some of you may find meaning in what I tried/trying to convey.
3.Had made my observations of the market here on WhatsApp & CH discussions that while its futile to "Catch a top" in terms of Numbers, it may be still a good idea to "time" the market in terms of ... well "Time"
Read 12 tweets

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