1/x So you're interested in PFP #NFT projects? Have you ever wondered how a strong community and the existence of a project roadmap may impact sales prices? Well, you can find out here! It's #research 🧵 time! $VET #VeChain #Vpunks #finance #economics
2/x TLDR - Using sales data from 7,272 secondary market sales of @vpunksofficial we find (when controlling for rarity scores) that for every 1 new official Telegram member the sales price increases by ~0.2% and the publication of the roadmap increased prices by ~33%!
3/x First, let us define our two main research questions:
1) does the size of a project's community impact the sales price?
2) does the existence of a project-specific roadmap impact the sales prices?
4/x Second let's look at existing literature revolving around NFT prices and sales. As of today, there are not many so we will focus on the findings of @MichaelMDowling, Professor of Business at @BusinessDCU.
5/x The 1st looks at the secondary market for the NFT $LAND from @decentraland. Dowling finds $LAND prices are inefficient and steadily rise in value over time. sciencedirect.com/science/articl…
6/x In the second paper, Dowling finds there is limited volatility transmission between $BTC and $ETH markets and NFT markets sciencedirect.com/science/articl…
7/x There is a distinct lack of existing literature looking at how a project's community and/or organization, ie roadmaps, may impact NFT prices. Many artists and developers focus on creating large, robust communities and roadmaps when they launch their NFTs, but should they?
8/x The short answer: yes. We discovered this answer by using @vpunksofficial, a PFP NFT launched on the @vechainofficial blockchain, as a #CaseStudy. The first Vpunk mint took place on 7/25/21, with the final (10,000th) #Vpunk minted on 8/5/21. Attached is an example
9/x Using 7,272 secondary market sales we are able to test our 2 main research questions. We do this through two main OLS models that control for #Vpunks characteristics. The 1st, uses the rarity score of each Vpunk while the 2nd uses the number attributes and the humanoid type.
10/x (quick findings show the higher the rarity score and more attributes a Vpunk has the higher the sales price. The findings also show the humanoid form positively impacts sales price in decreasing amounts by the following order: alien>ape>zombie>female>male)
11/x We use the log value of the final sales price in $VET as the dependent variable. The independent variables are either continuous (number of Vpunks Telegram members at time of sale) or binary (whether the roadmap was published at time of sale or not)
12/x As stated above, our findings were highly significant and indicated a positive relationship between the final sales price, the number of community members, and if a roadmap was published.
13/x The 0.2% increase in sales price for every 1 new Telegram member may seem small at first, but let's think about it for a second. For every 100 new Telegram members, we can assume the sales price increases by ~22%, that's huge!
14/x The existence of a roadmap and the impact on sales price is more obvious. Once the roadmap was published the sales price increased by ~33%. That's a giant leap!
15/x This information is HIGHLY IMPORTANT for anyone considering developing a new PFP styled NFT project. We show building a large community and developing a roadmap are both STATISTICALLY SIGNIFICANT AT A 1% LEVEL and POSITIVELY impact secondary market prices.
16/x It is important to note our results are limited to #Vpunks which may be a unique case, more research should be conducted looking at other PFP projects as well. Also, our data set covers a relatively short time span (~1month), more research should study long-term price trends
17/x I would like to thank the members of the group "Vpunk Data Brigade" for helping obtain the data necessary to run the models. This research would not have been possible without your help and support!

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