It's not only a HGV driver shortage impacting UK supply chains, but also Brexit has removed cabotage, which made UK haulage more efficient. A truck from Spain dropping fruit in Glasgow could pick up dairy in Glasgow for delivery in Hull, then fish in Hull for delivery in Madrid.
This created additional flexibility because the driver involved was employed in Spain, not UK. The same was true for UK-employed drivers travelling across Europe. UK haulage companies are now effectively excluded from a system operating across 27 countries, hence no shortages.
For reference, the EU cabotage regulations, alongside the revised UK rights as a third country……
Additionally, there is another element of flexibility that is negatively impacted by Brexit. Articulated vehicles separate into a tractor unit & a trailer. Trailers can be switched. Vehicle registration rules, now different in UK from EU, make leaving a trailer in UK less easy.
A recent logistics industry article alluding to these points is available here:…

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More from @chrislowndes

Mar 4
I am convinced if the UK vote on 23 June 2016 had gone the other way, there would be no war today
Soft power is a risk mitigation

Voting for Brexit has led to a reduction in Britain's soft power, whilst the success of manipulating the vote showed Putin that his plan for Europe, NATO and Russia was workable. It charged his batteries.…
This hypothesis is reinforced when you look at some of the evidence that Bannon created ahead of Trump's election…
Read 6 tweets
May 17, 2020
3.0 "our demographics" defence

A demographic defence invariably mentions the following attributes being 'exceptional' UK issues:

- population density (or 'lived density')
- obesity
- BAME residents as % of population
- Vitamin 'D' deficiency

Each can be challenged separately
3.1 "our demographics" defence

Population ('raw') density is population divided by land area

UK has one of the highest population densities in Europe, but not the highest (Belgium and Netherlands being higher, Germany and Italy only moderately lower)
3.2 "our demographics" defence

To see how deaths relate to 'raw' density, we plot the main European countries on a chart, then calculate an R-squared value to see how strong the correlation is. If R-squared is 1.0 the correlation is exact, & gets weaker the closer it is to zero
Read 17 tweets
May 17, 2020
When defending against the "UK worst in Europe" assertion, government supporters turn to one of three counter points:

1. the "not per capita" defence
2. the "other countries have dodgy data" defence
3. the "our demographics" defence

Here is a thread to address each

1.0 "not per capita" defence

Per capita is dividing the data by the population.

First, the reasons why this measure can be useful:

- degree of impact within a given boundary (i.e. country, state, county, local authority etc)
- capacity for death count to grow within a boundary
1.1 "not per capita" defence

Next, the reason why this measure has limitations:

- the virus is not confined by boundaries if those boundaries are porous
- once within a population, spread of the virus is driven by the R0 infection rate. Population size is not a factor in R0
Read 12 tweets

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