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Chris Lowndes 🇺🇦🕊️ Profile picture
@chrislowndes
Sep 25, 2021 • 5 tweets • 2 min read • Read on X
It's not only a HGV driver shortage impacting UK supply chains, but also Brexit has removed cabotage, which made UK haulage more efficient. A truck from Spain dropping fruit in Glasgow could pick up dairy in Glasgow for delivery in Hull, then fish in Hull for delivery in Madrid.
This created additional flexibility because the driver involved was employed in Spain, not UK. The same was true for UK-employed drivers travelling across Europe. UK haulage companies are now effectively excluded from a system operating across 27 countries, hence no shortages.
For reference, the EU cabotage regulations, alongside the revised UK rights as a third country

eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/…

gov.uk/haulage-in-the…
Additionally, there is another element of flexibility that is negatively impacted by Brexit. Articulated vehicles separate into a tractor unit & a trailer. Trailers can be switched. Vehicle registration rules, now different in UK from EU, make leaving a trailer in UK less easy.
A recent logistics industry article alluding to these points is available here:
trans.info/en/there-s-a-e…

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More from @chrislowndes

Chris Lowndes 🇺🇦🕊️ Profile picture
Jul 20, 2023
My day has started with an eye-opener:

- driving through rural Northamptonshire, stopped at village shop/PO
- went in, picked up paper & snack, then waited in short queue to pay
- with 1 in front of me, lady shop-keeper said she needed to pop to the loo. We both said no probs 🧵
- 1 minute later, older lady pulls up, picks up Daily Mail and joins queue
- 1 minute later she asks have we been waiting long "no" we said
- 1 minute later she tuts, walks round the shop and bangs on the PO glass screen
- comes back just as the lady shop-keeper appears again
- after the first person is served, I let the older lady go first
- 'that and two first class stamps' she says, no please
- shopkeeper politely explains stamps have to be bought at the PO counter
- she tuts again, goes to get stamps and leaves just ahead of me
Read 5 tweets
Chris Lowndes 🇺🇦🕊️ Profile picture
Mar 5, 2023
Fragile post-Brexit UK food supply-chains.

Once again, for those who struggle to acknowledge reality.

Last month, weather acutely impacted the source of many winter salad vegetables grown in Morocco and Spain, potentially impacting all of Europe 🧵
2/
Before Brexit, EU food supply-chains were largely frictionless & secure, as all countries were members of a single market. Imports from Morocco were covered by a single EU-Morocco agreement. Supplies from Spain were internal to the single market.
ipcc.ch/apps/njlite/ar…
3/
 Since Pre-Brexit, UK had a risky domestic food strategy, as supermarkets are uniquely powerful enough to set prices at the farm gate. Post-Brexit, those domestic supply risks still exist, but are compounded by additional risks to imported fresh produce
fwi.co.uk/business/super…
Read 9 tweets
Chris Lowndes 🇺🇦🕊️ Profile picture
Feb 21, 2023
I really can't ridicule the incompetence of the UK government over post-Brexit trade enough

Remember the phantom Seabourne Ferries debacle?

Well, the latest example is a tale of utter incompetence, phantom shipping companies and the Great UK Tomato Shortage of 2023 🧵
2/
 In January 2021, a continuity agreement between UK and Morocco came into force, replicating the EU-Morocco agreement we had just left.

This was lauded by UKGov as an example of how post-Brexit Britain would bypass the EU for food security

3/
 Soon, newspapers were claiming a 'huge win' for Brexit because a brand new freight ferry service by United Seaways was 'up-&-running' between Tangiers and Poole, providing a weekly service bypassing the need for trucks to drive through Spain & France
express.co.uk/news/politics/…
Read 9 tweets
Chris Lowndes 🇺🇦🕊️ Profile picture
Mar 4, 2022
I am convinced if the UK vote on 23 June 2016 had gone the other way, there would be no war today
Soft power is a risk mitigation

Voting for Brexit has led to a reduction in Britain's soft power, whilst the success of manipulating the vote showed Putin that his plan for Europe, NATO and Russia was workable. It charged his batteries.

theguardian.com/politics/2016/…
This hypothesis is reinforced when you look at some of the evidence that Bannon created ahead of Trump's election

bylinetimes.com/2022/03/02/tru…
Read 6 tweets
Chris Lowndes 🇺🇦🕊️ Profile picture
May 17, 2020
3.0 "our demographics" defence

A demographic defence invariably mentions the following attributes being 'exceptional' UK issues:

- population density (or 'lived density')
- obesity
- BAME residents as % of population
- Vitamin 'D' deficiency

Each can be challenged separately
3.1 "our demographics" defence

Population ('raw') density is population divided by land area

UK has one of the highest population densities in Europe, but not the highest (Belgium and Netherlands being higher, Germany and Italy only moderately lower)
3.2 "our demographics" defence

To see how deaths relate to 'raw' density, we plot the main European countries on a chart, then calculate an R-squared value to see how strong the correlation is. If R-squared is 1.0 the correlation is exact, & gets weaker the closer it is to zero
Read 17 tweets
Chris Lowndes 🇺🇦🕊️ Profile picture
May 17, 2020
When defending against the "UK worst in Europe" assertion, government supporters turn to one of three counter points:

1. the "not per capita" defence
2. the "other countries have dodgy data" defence
3. the "our demographics" defence

Here is a thread to address each

THREAD
1.0 "not per capita" defence

Per capita is dividing the data by the population.

First, the reasons why this measure can be useful:

- degree of impact within a given boundary (i.e. country, state, county, local authority etc)
- capacity for death count to grow within a boundary
1.1 "not per capita" defence

Next, the reason why this measure has limitations:

- the virus is not confined by boundaries if those boundaries are porous
- once within a population, spread of the virus is driven by the R0 infection rate. Population size is not a factor in R0
Read 12 tweets

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