SAINIK Profile picture
26 Sep, 11 tweets, 2 min read
1. UGLY DUCKLINGS vs DIRTY DOZEN. Recently ( July 23rd) had devised a hypothetical portfolio of stocks which were popular at one time, but were being shunned by the markets at that point of time. Called them as "Ugly Ducklings". 15 in number.
2. Most of them had good fundamentals ; however where there was a sharp deterioration in fundamentals, it was visible in the exaggerated decline in their prices eg Yes Bank & IDEA.
3. Typical of any powerful Bull Market, this portfolio also has performed well, however the point to note is, that this portfolio was designed to withstand the ensuing Bear Market, whenever it comes. (My definition of a Bear Market is: 25 -30 % drop in Nifty from the TOP).
4.The list was : Bharti, Coal India; CUB, Divis, Federal Bank, IGL, ITC, IOL, Petronet, Reliance, Sun Pharma, United Spirits, Vodafone Idea, Zee & Yes Bank. Zee has since been replaced ( sold @ 355) with Lupin.
5. I am still sticking to this portfolio, so much so my close friend invested Rs. 30 Lakhs on Friday ( 24th Sep) after understanding the logic behind the construction of the portfolio. Of course at his own risk & reward.
6. A few of my friends wanted to build a Contra portfolio ie Selling stocks which will get hurt more than the Nifty whenever the Bear arrives. Spent many hours researching some "safe stocks to sell & hold for next 1 year" hypothetically. Obviously these stocks have to be in F&O.
7. So here is my hypothetical portfolio of "Sell Right; Sit Tight" to outperform the Nifty on the downside. Have selected 12 stocks, labelling it as The Dirty Dozen. There were probably 20-30 stocks I could notice at first glance, which could figure in this portfolio.
8.However, have limited to ONLY a DOZEN . All of them are in F&O, except Zomato which I have selected since its a "Poster Boy" of the excesses of this Manic Bull Market.
9.The list is: 1. Adani Enterprises 2.Apollo Hospitals. 3. Bajaj Finance 4.Coforge 5. DLF 6.Godrej Consumer Products. 7.Infy 8. Jubilant Food. 9. Motherson Sumi 10. PEL 11. Tata Consumer 12. Zomato.
10. Criteria for selection: Extraordinary high PEG (This is the most important measure I use); Future Growth Prospects. Suffice to say, its certainly NOT a recommendation. I don't run any Small Case/PMS/ Webinar/Telegram/WhatsApp group etc. In short, I have nothing to "sell".
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More from @sainik636

22 Sep
1. Different Scenarios & Conclusions. A longish thread. Characteristics of Inflation & Deflation. The CBs are making it sound we are in a deflationary situation by calling Inflation as 'Transitory". Do you believe them ?
2. What then is Hyperinflation ?. This may happen if we continue to pump money regardless of the inflationary forces raising their head.
3. How frequent is Hyperinflation & why did it happen?
Read 23 tweets
22 Sep
1.Opinion trump Facts : Was hearing @udayanmukharji's show where Ridham says he has been tracking Sensex since 1985. Sensex came into being only in 1986. ( Jan 2nd 1986 ) 😳
2. In the same program Udayan asks as to what will be the trigger for a major global correction. He should know that there are NO identifiable triggers for any Top/major correction. 🙄
3. @ShekharGupta also on the Evergrande issue. He was saying global markets are already having severe falls because of this fear, including India. All he needed to check was the last couple of weeks moves. Or for that matter even yesterday's moves, especially the US opening.😬
Read 5 tweets
12 Sep
@Jai_hyderabad @vka27 . A thread on Health & Sport. "If I can do it, anyone can do it ". Just like the Stock Markets. Running a Marathon requires the same kind of skill sets as Investing in the Stock Market. Here I am just describing my Running Experience (1/n)
2. In early 2015, when I was around 54 years, the running bug bit me when I saw a friend of mine running on the Marina Beach. He introduced me to Marina Minnals one of the many running groups which are based out of Chennai.
3. In College I was into Sports, mainly short sprints having represented college in various Inter-Collegiate Meets, but anything above 400 m was Hell for me. In 2015 my Running group friends helped me to navigate Hell.
Read 12 tweets
6 Sep
1.“The Dog that Didn’t Bark”
Gregory: “Is there any other point to which you would wish to draw my attention?”
Holmes: “To the curious incident of the dog in the night-time.”
Gregory: “The dog did nothing in the night-time.”
Holmes: “That was the curious incident.”
2.Since 2008, when FED started its QE there was a fear that the wall of Liquidity would lead to very high Inflation, bordering on Hyperinflation.
However, that did not happen flummoxed the best of the minds.
3. In the last one year due to COVID the concept of “HELICOPTER MONEY’ which was touted by Bernanke in the early 2000’s as one solution to take care of low growth. So how is Helicopter Money different from Quantitative Easing?.
Read 21 tweets
5 Sep
1. MY BIGGEST REGRET : Recently on a CH session, a guy asked me whether I regretted my decision to accumulate Dec Put options in end July when Nifty was around 16k. My reply : I never regret my actions made after a great amount of study so long as only I lose money.
2. Regret happens when others take my advice & lose money or don't make money. However in the past have regretted since others took my advice & lost an opportunity.
3. July 2013. Had identified a stock after a great deal of Research, which then was the most hated. Had traded a long time b/w Rs.21-24 & rapidly fell to Rs.18 when it caught my attention. Immediately alerted everyone I knew that it was a bargain for LT. Most believed me & acted.
Read 11 tweets
3 Sep
1. Time to validate what this 91 year old gentleman says :
2. My good friend @Prashanth_Krish supplied me this data on MF flows in the past
3. This I picked from Mint :
Read 6 tweets

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