Stephen Stapczynski Profile picture
Sep 27, 2021 5 tweets 2 min read Read on X
European natural gas prices are again surging toward a record high 📈🚀

That's due in part to:

> Carbon futures hitting an all-time high as utilities turn to coal
> Seasonally low stockpiles, limited supply from Russia/Norway
> Robust Chinese LNG demand
> Uncertain wind output
EU benchmark carbon futures surged above 65 euros/ton for the first time ever as utilities seek coal supplies amid the global gas shortage
European coal futures for next-year delivery also surged to the highest since 2008 amid growing demand from the continent's utilities
US gas prices have surged to the highest level since 2014 amid winter supply fears

American LNG exports are poised to reach a record high this winter as new projects ramp up output, leaving less supply for the domestic market
Dutch TTF and UK NBP natural gas prices closed at record highs on Monday amid a global supply crunch

Both are now trading above the equivalent of $26/mmbtu (!)

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More from @SStapczynski

Jun 22
Has Iran ever closed the Strait of Hormuz?

Not so far

A full closure remains unlikely. It would wreck havoc on Iran's economy, while surging oil/gas prices could upset customers (China, US)

But here are some ways Iran could disrupt the oil trade🧵👇
bloomberg.com/news/articles/…Image
👉 Iran could harass vessels passing nearby, like ordering them into their waters or even holding tankers (they've done this in the past)

This could force ships to travel in convoys under protection of western navies

(Story from 2019)

bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
👉 Iran could increase jamming of GPS signals. It is already bad, and threatens to slow down journeys through the Strait

These comments from Shell's CEO last week:
bloomberg.com/news/articles/…Image
Read 6 tweets
May 15
SOUTH KOREA'S NUCLEAR POWER RISE
🇰🇷☢

In Changwon, Korea, an 8-story tall forging press runs nonstop, shaping red-hot steel into critical industrial parts

Lately, it’s making one thing: nuclear reactors

🧵 on Korea’s huge effort to export nuclear tech
bloomberg.com/news/features/…
The US, France (once cornerstones of the nuclear industry) are struggling with delays and cost overruns

Russia and China dominate, but face security concerns in the west

That leaves an opportunity for South Korea, which has diligently been building its atomic industry Image
As much as $9 trillion of nuclear investment will be required in the next quarter century to triple nuclear capacity

According to a Bloomberg analysis of the more than 400 planned and proposed nuclear reactors, Korea is positioned to win business with as many as 43% of them Image
Read 19 tweets
Jan 1
END OF AN ERA: Russia's oldest gas export route to Europe halted

For over five decades, Europe benefited from a steady flow of Russian gas via pipelines in Ukraine. That deal has now expired

While that won't trigger shortages in Europe, it does mark a historic shift

Thread🧵 Image
In the midst of the Cold War, the first large-scale pipeline to export Russian gas via Ukraine was completed in 1967

The USSR wanted to trade/profit with the capitalist West, while also exerting soft power. Meanwhile, the West needed fuel to feed their growing industries Image
The first deal between the USSR and a Western Europe nation was with Austria's OMV in June 1968

This makes sense, given Austria's ties with the USSR and its neutral position during the Cold War. But the 23-year deal to buy Russian gas was the first of several dominos to fall Image
Read 14 tweets
Aug 30, 2024
How Japan ignored climate critics and built a global natural gas empire
🇯🇵❤️🚢

Every six hours, somewhere in the world, an LNG shipment controlled by a Japanese company leaves a port. However, these tankers are only the tip of the iceberg

A thread 🧵
bloomberg.com/graphics/2024-…
Image
Japan began importing LNG in 1969 (see attached thread about that)

Over the last 50+ years, the Japanese government and its companies have worked together to unlock new supplies from Brunei and Malaysia to Indonesia and Russia

How does Japan, a country with little resources of its own, spearhead a fossil fuel industry?

They agree to buy the gas. And a lot of it

Japan’s long-term purchase agreements underpinned many LNG export projects

The first LNG cargoes from Qatar to Australia went to Japan Image
Read 23 tweets
Aug 17, 2024
Malaysia founded the oil & gas giant Petronas 50 years ago today, adding to a wave of countries nationalizing lucrative fuel supplies 🇲🇾 🛢️

Here is a short thread of about the creation of Petronas, one of the most important and influential Asian fossil fuel producers🧵
Shell discovered Malaysia’s first oil well in 1910

(Shell first commenced operations in Malaysia in 1891)

“The Grand Old Lady” produced for decades, and put Sarawak on the map Image
Over the next 50 years, Shell was busy

👉 They Built Malaysia’s first refinery in 1914

👉 Installed the first petrol pump in Kuala Lumpur in 1921

👉 And in the 1960s accelerated offshore exploration Image
Read 13 tweets
Aug 5, 2024
An LNG tanker docked at a sanctioned Russian facility has no insurer, is managed by a little known Indian company and is pretending to be somewhere else
🇷🇺🚢

This is how Russia is trying to circumvent US measures against its new Arctic LNG project 🧵
bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
Russian gas/LNG had largely avoided sanctions since the 2022 invasion of Ukraine

That changed in Nov 2023, when the US imposed sanctions against the new Arctic LNG 2 project

bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
While the facility began production in December, no LNG has been shipped as restrictions kept foreign companies away and stopped delivery of the specialized, ice-ready carriers

This was a key area where Western sanctions actually had a tangible impact on Russia Image
Read 13 tweets

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