1." LOOKING BACK, LOOKING AHEAD" or as @CNBCTV18Live would say: "Quarter se Quarter Thak".Kudos to that copywriter who devised this phrase QSQT.{ As an Ad professional who cut his teeth in Ogilvy Advertising for me this would have been a dream line}👍 Some thoughts on Markets.
2. At the beginning of the last Quarter had charted out mentally that September would most likely be the "peak" month, did not speculate on what would be the Level, though must admit that, the levels did surprise me.
3. While the Indices have come down significantly from the highs of September we still don't know whether they were the "Peaks". Nevertheless the moves indicate that any rallies from here are on, are likely to be sold since "something" has changed.
4. This "something" was I-N-F-L-A-T-I-O-N & events in China both of which I seem to have guessed correctly ( my pinned tweet). It was so obvious then, as its obvious now. The greatest enemy of "Risk" is Inflation
5.Where we stand today, is obvious to me, just as it was in the beginning of the last quarter. The "easy money" has been made & the next 12-14 months will separate the grain from the chaff, beginning NOW.
6. Have tried in my own small way to put out a portfolio " Ugly Ducklings" 15 stocks which one can help navigate the coming 12-14 months IF one is insistent on being in Equity. Have also created an "adventurous" portfolio "Dirty Dozen". EOD, will create another one:" Safe-Risk"
7.Having completed 3 decades in the markets, noticed that "Monsoon market" gives great opportunities to invest into which flowers beautifully during the "Summer". Monsoons are to be embraced, not feared. 1st Quarter of the Monsoons are always unsettling.
8. Bring out the Umbrellas & the Raincoats. @_prashantnair
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More from @sainik636

29 Sep
1."The Train has left the station" aka "Do the Advisors have Skin in the Game" ?.
2. Huge Interest in the Market & large number of market Analysts/Strategists expectedly giving "gyan" on Indices/Markets & collecting huge fees through Webinars/TV Appearances sucking in the naïve retail folks. Recent volatile moves have made these guys go on to overdrive .
3. Moving Targets are being given on Indices with most of them blithely asking followers to sell ONLY Below xyz levels while looking forward to higher & higher targets ignoring ground realities. Recency bias at peak since they have been successful in the past.
Read 9 tweets
29 Sep
Short term UGLY ( one week). : Hind Petro ( 289) SL 286; Target 299. Disc: Skin in the game.
Pushing my SL to cost
Booked half @ 296 , increased SL to 292. Target upped to 305.
Read 4 tweets
26 Sep
1. UGLY DUCKLINGS vs DIRTY DOZEN. Recently ( July 23rd) had devised a hypothetical portfolio of stocks which were popular at one time, but were being shunned by the markets at that point of time. Called them as "Ugly Ducklings". 15 in number.
2. Most of them had good fundamentals ; however where there was a sharp deterioration in fundamentals, it was visible in the exaggerated decline in their prices eg Yes Bank & IDEA.
3. Typical of any powerful Bull Market, this portfolio also has performed well, however the point to note is, that this portfolio was designed to withstand the ensuing Bear Market, whenever it comes. (My definition of a Bear Market is: 25 -30 % drop in Nifty from the TOP).
Read 11 tweets
22 Sep
1. Different Scenarios & Conclusions. A longish thread. Characteristics of Inflation & Deflation. The CBs are making it sound we are in a deflationary situation by calling Inflation as 'Transitory". Do you believe them ?
2. What then is Hyperinflation ?. This may happen if we continue to pump money regardless of the inflationary forces raising their head.
3. How frequent is Hyperinflation & why did it happen?
Read 23 tweets
22 Sep
1.Opinion trump Facts : Was hearing @udayanmukharji's show where Ridham says he has been tracking Sensex since 1985. Sensex came into being only in 1986. ( Jan 2nd 1986 ) 😳
2. In the same program Udayan asks as to what will be the trigger for a major global correction. He should know that there are NO identifiable triggers for any Top/major correction. 🙄
3. @ShekharGupta also on the Evergrande issue. He was saying global markets are already having severe falls because of this fear, including India. All he needed to check was the last couple of weeks moves. Or for that matter even yesterday's moves, especially the US opening.😬
Read 5 tweets
12 Sep
@Jai_hyderabad @vka27 . A thread on Health & Sport. "If I can do it, anyone can do it ". Just like the Stock Markets. Running a Marathon requires the same kind of skill sets as Investing in the Stock Market. Here I am just describing my Running Experience (1/n)
2. In early 2015, when I was around 54 years, the running bug bit me when I saw a friend of mine running on the Marina Beach. He introduced me to Marina Minnals one of the many running groups which are based out of Chennai.
3. In College I was into Sports, mainly short sprints having represented college in various Inter-Collegiate Meets, but anything above 400 m was Hell for me. In 2015 my Running group friends helped me to navigate Hell.
Read 12 tweets

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