Steven Sinofsky Profile picture
Oct 4, 2021 14 tweets 5 min read Read on X
Disruption is now business canon, even though it has legit critics and isn't general as many think. What was it like face "disruption" right when the paper/book came out in late 90s? Here's "Hardcore Software" on gaining org alignment for "Office9". 1/13 …rdcoresoftware.learningbyshipping.com/p/049-go-get-t…
2/ My favorite thing about disruption is how stories are always told after-the-fact when everything seems so clean and neat. Or conversely when everyone is quick to say and agree "ripe for disruption". Few consider the variable of time. Everything much more difficult. Book photo innovator's dilemma.
3/ In early 1997, Office had just really taken off on Windows with Windows 95. It was a huge hit and half of Microsoft's revenue. The internet was happening at the same time. And then "Innovator's Dilemma" came out. Everyone was being disrupted. (Annual report) Revenue from annual report. Platforms showing 5.97B and Appl
4/ A key element of disruption is what goes on inside a company when disruption happens. The story is often told as though it is a technology bet that the old guard won't make and the new insurgent technologists know what is better.

Ha, that's the academic version :-)
5/ Microsoft was hardly so simple. The company was over 20,000 people. Office was a tiny group relatively in the corner even compared to most R&D groups (lean!!). Here's the contemporaneous company org chart (courtesy Directions on Microsoft, @getwired). Looks like a VLSI layout. crazy microsoft org chart.
6/ The internet was also very "new". There were new technologies coming out all the time. Many seized on "disruptive" theory as a way to promote their new thing. Inside Microsoft, suddenly a big topic was how Office was going to be disrupted by new tech. Here's the complexity.
7/ Different parts of Microsoft had different ideas about which new "tech" would disrupt Office. Disruption was certain. Office was viewed as "not getting it". But the problem was even if we agreed we couldn't respond to each different tech.

We could only build one product.
8/ Was it building Office for the browser? In 1997 HTML 3.2 just got published. Scripting was still new and not settled. HTTP servers were still not app servers. Netscape could build lots into a browser. Internet Explorer wanted us to align with IE and extend IE to build Office. Netscape Communicator very promising headline in scanned sto
9/ Many knew the browser wasn't enough so they created Java to run in the browser. But that was kind of a hack. The allure of write-once-run-anywhere was HUGE. Sun backed it. But it kind of didn't work. The Dev Tools team at MS was really freaked out about java v. Visual Basic. Corel Office puts Java to work.IBM embraces Java Everywhere.
10/ Java Beans and "Components" was a whole other way to build software that might run in browsers. COM-component object model-was viewed by many at MS as "crown jewels". To battle components we created ActiveX. Some thought Office in ActiveX avoided disruption. (Beans "Arrive"!) Java Components: Java Beans arrive (Scanned article)Lotus Maps plan for Java components (scanned article)
11/ Network Computers were a new idea--a computer that was just a browser (!!). These were freaking out the Windows team because they were an assauly on all of desktop computing. They required Office in a browser, and a server. NCs go beyond hype (!) NCs move beyond hype (scanned article)
12/ So question is how to work through what to do and what bets to make. There was a huge amount of uncertainty and almost panic leading to a lot of angst. In the post in hardcore software I go through these technologies and how the company was conflicted. Wrote a long memo :=) Our Competitive Position Before looking forward to what our
13/ Please consider subscribing and joining in the journey of the PC. I'd appreciate it! Thank you. Next post is on the actual plan for "Office9". …rdcoresoftware.learningbyshipping.com
PS/ I think this post is perhaps what it feels like to be in traditional finance or banking these days, thinking through the technology of/competitors in crypto/defi/neobanks/etc and the different parts of a BigCo pointing at entrenched interests and potential technologies.

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More from @stevesi

Mar 21
Today the US DOJ+16 states/DC (HA we had 19+) filed suit against Apple over abuse of market position ̷b̷y̷ ̷m̷a̷k̷i̷n̷g̷ ̷a̷ ̷v̷a̷s̷t̷l̷y̷ ̷b̷e̷t̷t̷e̷r̷ ̷c̷o̷m̷p̷u̷t̷e̷r̷ in an effort to keep customers reliant on iPhone.

🧵contd until I lose steam COMPLAINT In 2010, a top Apple executive emailed Apple's then-CEO about an ad for the new Kindle e-reader. The ad began with a woman who was using her iPhone to buy and read books on the Kindle app. She then switches to an Android smartphone and continues to read her books using the same Kindle app. The executive wrote to Jobs: one "message that can't be missed is that it is easy to switch from iPhone to Android. Not fun to watch." Jobs was clear in his response: Apple would "force" developers to use its payment system to lock in both developers and users on its platform...
1. This is scary/concerning/freaky if you work at Apple. My first thoughts go to them. What I can say is heads down, be patient. It’s an ultramarathon.

2. If you are a competitor cheering then history tells us down the road you will either become a faded memory or will be sued.
Of course I am not a lawyer and don’t pretend to be one. When the Microsoft case first started in the early 90s. MS’s GC said to me “you have to remember, people who chose to practice antitrust (AT) law not only believe in it but see ‘monopolies’ and ‘abuse’ everywhere.”
Read 50 tweets
Sep 25, 2023
So much of the evolution of technology can be summed up by “what’s new, was already done before…but being first (or early) if often no different in result than being wrong.”

Of course being done before is never ever the same as the new things… 1/
2/ New things that appear to have been done before have a different perspective, bring unique market forces to a problem, and rely on technologies that are often more mature, not brand new.

Many latest and greatest inventions fail and need to be reinvented in new contexts.
3/ I lived through too many Microsoft examples where we were “first”—even “innovative”—only to watch other companies come along and capitalize on something conceptually close/identical but implemented entirely differently.

Their patience and choices made all the difference.


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Read 4 tweets
Sep 13, 2023
Apple's 'Mother Nature' sketch was a complete dud, and didn't belong… // No, no. Issue is much more subtle and practical. Need to separate weird marketing from reality. This is greenwashing but the green is…profit. This isn't Bud Light. Or even "woke" 1/appleinsider.com/articles/23/09…
2/Sure the presentation might have been awkward or even a dud to some. A quasi-religious tone viz. Mother Nature isn't everyone's approach.

At the same time, every fact or position put forth is a strategic, margin-positive, and innovative effort from Apple. Super important. Mother Nature in video.
3/ Start with packaging. Most people haven't thought much about packaging. Even most who have made something needing a package haven't thought about it. Packaging is *expensive* and necessary. It is also a whole discipline. How many knew you could get a PhD in packaging? About The only packaging Ph.D. degree offered in the United States. #1 in Packaging programs (Source: universities.com) The School of Packaging (SoP) holds the prestigious reputation of being the first, the largest, and the most comprehensive packaging school in higher education.  The School educates students to thrive in careers such as packaging engineering, design, manufacturing, research and development, and sales.  Our graduates can be found across most industries and global Fortune 500 companies, and our Ph.D. graduates teach at universities around the world. Students graduate with fo...
Read 24 tweets
Jun 6, 2023
Why are people so quick to proclaim failure for new products? It seems a dumb thing to ask. I mean knowledgable people look at a new product and think it doesn't cut it and will fail. Much more going on. Innovation is nearly impossible to deliver. Harder to predict/analyze. 1/ Scott Galloway @profgallowa...Making the Laptop Commonpla...Apple should pull the plug ...Tesla Motors faces rough ro...
2/ Regardless of the era, predicting failure has always been easy, always been attention grabbing, and always kind of fun. Some say it's necessary simply to counter the marketing and power of the launch. Silly. A launch still has to battle the market. The market is really brutal.
3/ Predicting failure is a form of social credit, a way of elevating oneself above the company. It is in effect a power grab. It is also a form of grift. A con. These are harsh words but let me explain.
Read 24 tweets
Jun 5, 2023
Not a prediction for WWDC. But want to share what I will be looking for, IFF Apple announces a new platform and hardware. New platforms are super exciting. But a new platform from a massively established company is an extra degree of difficulty. 1/ Apple photo of TV, Mac, iPa...
2/ The an insurgent releases a new platform such as the original iPhone Google Chrome, or chatGPT, there’s nothing but upside. The risk is existential failure for the platform but not risk to a massive existing business.
3/ With an already existing platform business, launching an additional one does not happen in isolation. Instead, the new platform is all about how it connects to the existing efforts. This “synergy” can be viewed as a tax or as leverage. Just depends.
Read 19 tweets
May 5, 2023
Apple earnings today. Some happy (after hours trading). Some might say less than perfect. So much short-term punditry over the years has been so very wrong about Apple in the long term.

My favorite predictions came more than a quarter century ago as Apple was on the brink... 1/ Wired Magazine June 1997 im...
2/ Best of the industry got together to come up with 101 ways to save Apple in June 1997.

"Dear Apple: In the movie Independence Day a PowerBook saves the earth from destruction...We don't believe Apple is rotten to the core...You have the power to save the world and yourself." An image of an operating ro...
3/ What follows are 101 predictions from the Wired editors and dozens of sidebars from luminaries with their ideas. Here are a few. Maybe chuckle but most of all these serve as a reminder of punditry as a sport. We need that reminder now.
Read 12 tweets

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