🧵Let's take a look at how busy Chicago Hospital Emergency Departments have been during the pandemic

1⃣ Total Daily Visits haven't yet returned to 2019 levels. Initial lockdown period from 3/15/20 - 5/31/20, 2020 saw a 40% drop in the # of visits vs the same period in 2019.
2⃣ Visits for COVID-Like Illness to Chicago EDs a very small portion of all visits.

Nothing about SARS-CoV-2 has overwhelmed the city's emergency rooms during the pandemic-response period.
3⃣ Visits for CLI averaged 4.91% of all ED visits between Mar 1, 2020 & June 22, 2021*

Range:
13.91% on 4/12/20 & 4/23/20
0.62% on 6/13/21

Only 55 of the 479 days (11%) in the dataset had 10%+ of ED visits for CLI

*end of dataset
4⃣ In June 2021, reporting guidelines changed from CLI visits to people visiting the ED who were diagnosed with or had a lab-confirmed test for COVID.

% exceeded 10% only five days in late April/early May

I don't see an COVID-fueled emergency for Chicago Emergency Depts
5⃣ We can see COVID-Diagnosed ED Visits is lower than visits for CLI

While these aren't necessarily the same people, these data raise 2 questions:

-What do Covid-neg CLI visits "have," if not Covid?
-What % of ED visits are incidental, asymp positives?
6⃣ Here's the most interesting graph - to me, at least.

Aug/Sept 2021 COVID-diagnosed ED visits significantly higher than in Aug/Sept 2020.

Also, Apr/May 2021 COVID-diagnosed ED visits were about the same as Dec 2020/Jan 2021 -- & Aug/Sept 2021 not much lower than this spring
7⃣ ED Visits for all reasons - tho still not at 2019/early 2020 levels - have risen.

So is the rise in ED visit COVID-diagnosis a function of the rise in ED visits?

As a %, it's still higher now than last yr.

Maybe more visits to ED = more incidental positives?
8⃣ Reminders:

✔️ED Visit data does not = Hospital Admission data
✔️Not everyone who comes to the hospital (ICU or Acute Non-ICU) goes through the Emergency Dept

Chicago's "COVID Hospitalization", C19+ ICU patient, & C19 Acute Non-ICU patient data are in other files
9⃣ I'll be watching this & all curves with interest.

Last year, the autumn rise started around now.

With almost 70% of Chicago fully vaxed, "pandemic of the unvaccinated" isn't going to work as an excuse if we don't see a pretty big drop across all metrics going into November.
🔟 What do ER visits look like during a bad Chicago flu season?

Per city reports, we saw 30%-40% of ED visits to Chicago's two main pediatric hospitals for Influenza-Like Illness (ILI) during H1N1

10%+ at other hospitals in that & other seasons

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More from @EWoodhouse7

3 Oct
This is truly astounding.

4x as many COVID-attributed deaths in August 2021 as in August 2020. data.cdc.gov/NCHS/Provision…
COVID/Non-COVID deaths breakdown for August 2020 v August 2021, Ages 15-44.

All-Cause Mortality is down for 15-24, and up for 25-34 and 35-44

Reminder that some kinds of non-natural deaths take longer to investigate/process
How many Americans in this age group died in August pre-COVID?

What does August 2021 COVID/Non-COVID look like compared to August 2020 & recent years?

Comparison below.

Sources:

data.cdc.gov/NCHS/Provision…

wonder.cdc.gov/controller/sav…
Read 4 tweets
2 Oct
I don't care what your beliefs & assumptions are regarding lockdowns, masks, vaccination, natural immunity, etc.

This shouldn't be happening. data.cdc.gov/NCHS/Provision… Image
For comparison: August 2018 & 2019 Image
By request:

Back to 2016 (Raw numbers from CDC WONDER. Not population-adjusted) Image
Read 4 tweets
1 Oct
The "Case" of the Disappearing Data

I’m concerned about some data that seems to have disappeared from the Chicago DPH’s vax breakthough reports

I don’t want to accuse anyone of fraud or misrepresentation yet, which is why I invite other eyes to see if they see what I see 👀

1/
Here’s CDPH’s first “breakthrough” report, issued 8/18/21 chicago.gov/content/dam/ci…

Note rates for 3 groups are shown: Unvaxed, Vaxed (1st dose), & Fully Vaxed

Defs for 2 of the groups are footnoted

People w/2 doses <14 days ago are not broken out

Full dose incl J&J

2/
Footnotes also say data includes specimen collection from as far back as 1/1/2021

It's unclear to me if the first reporting week shown (March 6) represents data from Jan 1, 2021 - March 6, 2021

Given Chicago's weekly case numbers in those months, I assume it does not

3/
Read 11 tweets
1 Oct
A Chicagoland HS of 2,700 students has canceled in-person school for two weeks due to “2 or more” people testing positive for SARS-CoV-2

No word on whether students/staff are actually sick - or are sick beyond mild illness.

This is what “moral panic” looks like 😞
Including today & accounting for a day that was already scheduled off for P/T conferences, students will miss 10 days of f2f instruction

Such a huge setback for student mental/emotional health -- not to mention learning & community

Why are we doing this?
nbcchicago.com/news/coronavir…
At least the school is calling this what it is on their webpage rich227.org

A School Closure

(Wrong dates, I believe, since it starts today, October 1.)
Read 15 tweets
1 Oct
Chicago's Lula Cafe has announced will require all guests 12+ to be fully vaccinated. TMK, this is the first city restaurant to set this requirement.

Owner says this step will make people "feel better," "safer", and "more protected." 🧐

1/ instagram.com/p/CUc9yTYLQ8A/…
This means 33% of Chicagoans can't go to Lula Cafe, incl ~60% of Black residents

50% Latinx residents would be denied a table, which is esp ironic b/c Lula is located in a neighborhood that's 40% Latinx.

It's unclear how boosters will affect Lula's def of "fully vaxed."

2/
Is this a harbinger of what's to come for other city restaurants this fall/winter, as cases rise?

I say, "Probably," given what we've seen in NYC.

(New Yorkers, can you comment on how that's going?)

cc: @TheEliKlein @LilithAssyria @angrybklynmom

3/3
Read 4 tweets
25 Sep
🧵I obtained via FOIA the data* underlying the Chicago Dept of Public Health’s Sept 4th breakthrough report: chicago.gov/content/dam/ci…

It’s hard to interpret due to CDPH’s definition of “vaccinated”, but let’s give it a shot #punintended

*docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d…

1/
Since July, 35% of Cases are among vaccinated residents (n=7,410/20,623)🤔

What’s “vaccinated” mean?

Per CDPH, "completion of vaccine series at least 14 days prior to a positive test (with no other positive tests in the previous 45 days)"

2/
So “unvaccinated” includes ppl who tested pos & have received

Zero doses
1/2 doses
1/1 or 2/2 doses <14 ago
1/1 or 2/2 doses 14+ days ago but had a pos test within past 45 days

#hotmess for the data.

See Gato's article for related issues boriquagato.substack.com/p/why-vaccinat…

3/
Read 10 tweets

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