๐Ÿ/ ๐Ÿšจ๐Œ๐„๐†๐€ ๐“๐‡๐‘๐„๐€๐ƒ: ๐“๐‡๐„ ๐„๐๐ƒ ๐Ž๐… #๐•๐„๐‚๐‡๐€๐ˆ๐ ๐‚๐˜๐‚๐‹๐„ ๐Ÿšจ
- (1/3) When will VET make its ATH โณ
- (2/3) VET price prediction? ๐Ÿ’ธ
- (3/3) Exiting the market at the right time โœ…

Don't forget to like and RT! Ready? Letโ€™s Go โฌ‡๏ธโฌ‡๏ธ

#VET #VeFam #VTHO #BTC
2/ NFA: All the information given here is not investment advice, but only the result of my own research and analysis. They can very well be realized as the opposite. Please, and even more so now, before you invest: DYOR and only invest what you can afford to lose ๐Ÿค
3/ ๐‘ด๐‘ฌ๐‘ฎ๐‘จ ๐‘ป๐‘ฏ๐‘น๐‘ฌ๐‘จ๐‘ซ (๐Ÿ/๐Ÿ‘) ๐‘พ๐’‰๐’†๐’ ๐’˜๐’Š๐’๐’ ๐‘ฝ๐‘ฌ๐‘ป ๐’Ž๐’‚๐’Œ๐’† ๐’Š๐’•๐’” ๐‘จ๐‘ป๐‘ฏ? โณ
WHEN? If we could predict everything, we would all be millionaires, that's a fact. But since we can't predict the future, we can make TA predictions to get as close as possible to the truth!
4/ When will #VET make its ATH?
To answer this question, I based my analysis on the VET/BTC pair
5/ What does the analysis involve? By studying the #VET/BTC pair from January 30, 2020 until today, we can determine mini-cycles. Each composed of 3 periods, represented by triangles:
๐Ÿ”ด = 1st accumulation phase
๐ŸŸ  = 2nd phase of accumulation
๐ŸŸข = Strong rise
6/ How to determine these periods? The triangles are formed according to some correlations on the DAILY RSI. But before explaining the method, remember the following levels:
- Between 25 and 30 RSI
- Between 85 and 90 RSI
7/ Now let's get down to business! (RSI 1D timeframe)
๐Ÿ”ด 1st period (red triangle) starts between 25 and 30 of RSI โžก๏ธ records an increase until the minimum 60 of RSI โžก๏ธ before falling heavily until touching again its initial point
8/ ๐ŸŸ  2nd period (orange triangle) follows the same pattern, it starts between 25 and 30 RSI โžก๏ธ rises to a minimum of 60 RSI โžก๏ธ BUT the fall stops at about 40 RSI.

๐ŸŸข 3rd period (green triangle) is totally different, begin a rise at around 40 RSI โžก๏ธ Top is between 85 and 90.
9/ Important note: RSI TOP of VET/BTC is correlated to #VET TOP on VET/USDT pair.
10/ A mini-cycle starts at the base of ๐Ÿ”ด and ends at the top of ๐ŸŸข We can now identify the duration of the mini-cycles:

Mini-cycle 1: Jan 30, 2020 - July 8, 2020 = 160 days
Mini-cycle 2: Nov 5, 2020 - April 18, 2021 = 164 days
Mini-cycle 3 (current): July 20, 2021 - ???
11/ So there is a good chance that Mini-cycle 3 will also last about 160 days. Let's look in more detail at the duration of each phase within the mini-cycles to determine our end date! ๐Ÿง

โœ… In mini cycle 1, the accumulation phase lasted 108 days, the rise phase lasted 52 days
12/ โœ… In mini cycle 2, the accumulation phase lasted 112 days, the rise phase lasted 52 days
13/ โœ… Based on the durations of 2 previous mini cycles, we can estimate that the accumulation period for this mini-cycles should last about 112 days and that the rise period will be 52 days again ๐Ÿ™๐Ÿฝ
14/ This model predicts a peak on December 31, 2021. Adding more or less 4 days of difference, the top of #VeChain #VET should occur in the following period:
โณDecember 27, 2021 - January 4, 2022 โณ
15/ But don't forget that #VET is full of surprises ๐ŸŽ In 2018, for about 1 month, the price of VEN uncorrelated from that of the other alts to come to a top late January 2018!
16/ ๐‘ด๐‘ฌ๐‘ฎ๐‘จ ๐‘ป๐‘ฏ๐‘น๐‘ฌ๐‘จ๐‘ซ (๐Ÿ/๐Ÿ‘) - ๐‘ฝ๐‘ฌ๐‘ป ๐’‘๐’“๐’Š๐’„๐’† ๐’‘๐’“๐’†๐’…๐’Š๐’„๐’•๐’Š๐’๐’? ๐Ÿ’ธ

I think I've been asked this question about 2500 times...no joke ๐Ÿ‘€ Today, I'm sharing 2 potential price scenarios for #VET ATH. This represents days/weeks of analysis, I hope you'll like it ๐Ÿ™๐Ÿฝ
17/ Scenario 1๏ธโƒฃ: Fib Circles ๐ŸŒ€
I've never seen this method used to predict the price of #VeChain before...๐Ÿ‘€๐Ÿ”ฅ If you don't mind, let's do a little history before we start!
18/ ๐Ÿ‘จ๐Ÿฝโ€๐Ÿซ If you are part of the #VeFam, you probably know that VeChain was originally called #VEN. VEN was running on the Ethereum Blockchain (ERC20). It's only in July 2018 that VeChain changed from the VEN token to the tokens we know today: VET and VTHO.
19/ ๐Ÿ‘จ๐Ÿฝโ€๐Ÿซ Why leaving the Ethereum Blockchain? Because #VeChain foundation wanted to create its own Blockchain to stop depending on the Ethereum network + to be able to implement a new protocol: the Proof-of-Authority (POA).
20/ ๐Ÿ‘จ๐Ÿฝโ€๐Ÿซ At the time of the Hard Fork, the number of tokens in circulation was multiplied by 100, meaning that 1 VEN = 100 VET. For example, a holder of 500 VEN would end up with 50,000 VET if they kept them after the summer of 2018 ๐Ÿ‘
21/ ๐Ÿ‘จ๐Ÿฝโ€๐Ÿซ But what's most important is to understand that #VET never experienced the 2017 Bullrun, but VEN did.
22/ ๐Ÿ‘จ๐Ÿฝโ€๐Ÿซ TOP VEN (Altseason 2017) = end of January 2018, VEN topped out at $9.45, which is an ATH of $0.095 when putting it back at #VET's value.

BOTTOM VET (BearMarket) = VEN became #VET during the BearMarket, which made several low points at $0.0033, an important support line.
23/ Knowing the top and bottom of #VeChain allowed me to use the Fib circles.

By taking the top of VEN = (9.45/100) $0.0945 VET and connecting it to the bottom of December 2018, which is $0.0033, we get several fibonacci circles โฌ‡๏ธ
24/ Then, we draw a line at the top of each circle and we get the following data:

1.618 equals to $0.26 per #VET
2.618 equals to $1.40 per #VET
3.618 equals to $7.40 per #VET
25/ Most of the other circles (e.g. 0.618) have identified local tops, but in our case we will observe only the 1.618, 2.618 and 3.618 which are the main resistances ๐Ÿ’ฅ
26/ The 1.618 has determined with impressive accuracy the top of #VET wave 3. If we look on the chart, we see that this resistance line is touched several times before May 2021 crash ๐Ÿ”ฅ
27/ Now we observe that 2.618 is at the intersection of several lines on the chart:
- The black line = Top of the ascending channel
- The grey line = Estimated date #VET ATH, i.e. December 31 (and around)
28/ These 3 lines intersect at almost the same level. We also know that the 1.618 has identified the top of wave 3, that's why the 2.618 is for me a preferred resistance for a new #VET ATH = $1.40 ๐Ÿš€

Finally, 3.618 will be a very big resistance, but for the next cycle IMO!
29/ Scenario 2๏ธโƒฃ: Fib Extension 3.618 ๐ŸŸช
While testing several times to find convergence between the top of the alts, I realized that there was a very important one at the 3.618 of fib extension. Let me explain!
30/ Using Fibonacci extensions + with Eliott waves, I was able to anticipate several tops in the 2017 cycle, including #ETH, #NEO and #LTC.

I'll let you see this on the graphsโฌ‡๏ธ

LTC 2017 ATH = $370
๐ŸŸช Model prediction extension 3.618 ATH = $369
= โœ… +1$ difference
31/ ETH 2017 ATH = $1,592
๐ŸŸช Model prediction extension 3.618 ATH = $1576
= โœ… +16$ difference
32/ NEO 2017 ATH = $198
๐ŸŸช Model prediction extension 3.618 ATH = $200
= โœ… -2$ difference
33/ Now applying the 3.618 extension model to #VET current cycle, we get an estimated ATH = $1.04. ๐Ÿ’ฅ
The interesting thing is that $1 is likely to be a crucial resistance, with significant profit taking for holders who have owned it for several years.
34/ Despite the accuracy of the fib extensions, this model has its limitations. The main one is the fact that I could only verify these analyses based on the 2017 cycle. The current cycle is more similar to the 2013 cycle. But we have very little data for the Alt at this time!
35/ So to summarize, here are my price predictions for December 2021 - early January 2022.
- ATH โžก๏ธ $1.04 using the fib extensions
- ATH โžก๏ธ $1.40 using fibonacci circles

For #VTHO it's simple, I would sell mine at the same time as my #VET, could get to 0.1$ IMO ๐Ÿ™๐Ÿฝ
36/ Now, I encourage you to take into account other analyses than mine, you will find on Twitter very good analysts. I also encourage you to DYOR and do TA yourself. By doing so, you will be less influenced by the FOMO that is likely to intensify by December. Trade Safe! ๐Ÿ™๐Ÿฝ
37/ ๐‘ด๐‘ฌ๐‘ฎ๐‘จ ๐‘ป๐‘ฏ๐‘น๐‘ฌ๐‘จ๐‘ซ (๐Ÿ‘/๐Ÿ‘) - ๐‘ฌ๐’™๐’Š๐’•๐’Š๐’๐’ˆ ๐’•๐’‰๐’† ๐’Ž๐’‚๐’“๐’Œ๐’†๐’• ๐’‚๐’• ๐’•๐’‰๐’† ๐’“๐’Š๐’ˆ๐’‰๐’• ๐’•๐’Š๐’Ž๐’† โœ…
Risk management is key if you want to make money in the long run and not lose money in the short run!
38/ Here are the different points we will look at to manage your risk and make the most profit possible ๐Ÿ’ธ
โžก๏ธ Determine your financial goal
โžก๏ธ VET/BTC uncorrelated = danger
โžก๏ธ RSI Top VET/BTC
โžก๏ธ Follow the Green line (VET/BTC)
โžก๏ธ Exit now: EMA330 4h break / EMA50 daily break
39/ โžก๏ธ Determining your financial goal ๐ŸŽฏ
I would never share my sales goals with you, why? Not because I'm selfish, but because they might negatively influence your decisions. Instead, here are the different steps I invite you to follow:
40/ Step 1: Here is the most important advice I can give you: determine a specific financial amount to reach. 20k, $150k, +$1M. I insist on the term precise. This amount should allow you to invest and realize your dreams ๐Ÿ™Œ
41/ Step 2: Now I invite you to compare my analysis with the ones of @cryptoJTT, @SalehAhmedd_, @JustinBennettFX, @VforVechain and other good analysts. Combine this with your own research and analysis... ๐Ÿ“ˆ
42/ Step 3: Now determine if your financial goal is potentially attainable. If it's not, you'll need to scale it back...or wait until the next cycle. To do this, you need to be prepared to wait 3-4 years.
43/ Step 4: Exit strategy: DCA or 100% exit? There is no real answer to this question. DCA allows you to sell level by level to exit price safely, but you will probably earn less than selling 100% at a given price. Risks are higher with this strategy, that's logical ๐Ÿคท๐Ÿฝโ€โ™‚๏ธ
44/ Remember: your financial goal is the key ๐ŸŽฏ Be pessimistic, even if the price goes up after, you will have no regrets because you earn the desired amount! ๐Ÿ’ธ
45/ โžก๏ธ VET/BTC Decorrelation
Why is it so important in your risk management? To answer that, we will study the accumulation + rise phases of wave 3 on the VET/BTC pair...
46/ By comparing them to the VET/USDT pair, we can see that each rise or fall is associated with an impulsive wave of the Great Wave 3. As a reminder, each wave of Elliott is composed of 5 small wave ๐ŸŒŠ
47/ Accumulation phase = Correlation
During this period, we notice that #VET is correlated to BTC, or rather stagnates. It outperforms then underperforms BTC. This accumulation phase corresponds to small waves 1-2-3-4
48/ Rise phase = Full decorrelation ๐Ÿ“ˆ
The rise phase equals to small wave 5 in this chart. When small wave 5 begins, #VET becomes totally decorrelated with #BTC, i.e. it outperforms #BTC by recording higher % rises. e.g, if BTC makes a +50%, VET will make +80-100% rise.
49/ The purpose of this analysis is to make you understand that decorrelation = wave 5 = 'end of the cycle is imminent' ๐Ÿ’ฅ

You must be prepared to sell your positions at any time, or risk seeing your portfolio lose up to 30-50% of its value if you sell too late ๐Ÿ‘€
50/ Based on the wave 3 scenario, here is a projection of what could happen in the next wave 5 (current wave) โฌ‡๏ธ
51/ Now that we have identified the โ€˜danger zoneโ€™ thanks to the VET/BTC decorrelation, we will use 3 analyses to know when to exit the market at the right time, NFA as always โœ…
52/ 1๏ธโƒฃ Daily RSI on VET/BTC pair

Do you remember the 85-90 RSI level? This is probably where the next top will occur. Here are the local TOPs and their respective RSI:
- Nov 15 2019 = 86 RSI
- July 8 2020 = 91 RSI
- April 18 2021 = 89 RSI
53/ Remember, the forecast ATH is between December 27 and January 4, 2022, until mid-jan possibly + the market top will probably be between 85 and 90 RSI.
54/ 2๏ธโƒฃ ยซย Follow the Green lineย ยป on VET/BTC pair

This is a good indicator to anticipate the next market top. When we cross the gray line, we will enter a zone of very high volatility, when we touch the green line, the cycle will probably end... ๐Ÿ‘€๐Ÿ’ฅ
55/ 3๏ธโƒฃ EMA 50 Daily + EMA 330 4H on VET/USD pair

The next push should look like wave 3. If you have to remember one thing: the 50 EMA acted as support each time. When it broke, #VET recorded -80%. Next time, it will probably be a -95% until bottom, so be prepared! ๐Ÿ™๐Ÿฝ
56/ If you have been following me for a long time, you also know that I'm a fan of 4H EMA 330, it's kind of my favorite EMA, and then nobody uses it! ๐Ÿงก The 4H EMA 330 brings even more precision on the turning point ๐Ÿ‘
57/ Of course, there are still plenty of ways to anticipate the exit. I can't list them all, but I think that these few analyses will help you avoid getting caught by FOMO. Be rational when the market is irrational! I wish you the best โœ…
58/ This is the end of this Mega Thread, thank you all for following it! It should help you survive the next few months of upside ๐Ÿ”ฅAgain, never stop DYOR...remember that you are responsible for your successes & failures. You make your own decision, it's up to you!
Thank you all for your kindness, my life is taking another turn thanks to you, cheers to the best community #VeFam ๐Ÿ™๐Ÿฝ

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