Thread by @dpatrikarakos

THREAD: I am on-the-ground in Erbil for the #iraqielections2021. I feel my Iraqi heritage - & these elections - strongly today: the photo is of my great-grandfather, who many years ago was MP for Basra.

So what's been happening & what is likely to happen? Let's get started!

I've been looking the elections for a while & also work with sources on the ground, relevant organisations & - where possible - speak to government officials. Hopefully the picture that emerges is as accurate as can be. Critically it's informed by Iraqis who actually live here.

Polls opened at 7am local time (4 hours ago). The Independent High Electoral Commission (IHEC) says voting is going smoothly and free from political or militia pressure (let's see...) The last few weeks has witnessed a typically fraught election period & "intense" campaigning.

The backdrop to these elections is widespread dissatisfaction with corruption and the political process. In 2019 protests brought early elections and forced out the previous PM, but reforms were seen as insufficient. Now they wait to see if new elections will bring change.

How does it work & who's running? Iraq is a parliamentary democracy with a single house of 329 seats. If any party/bloc gets 165 seats they can form a gvnt. This is unlikely. Instead elections will be followed by months of negotiations between major actors.

Who are they?

The largest faction is likely to be the Sadrist Movement, led by Shi'ite Muslim cleric Muqtada al-Sadr. Sadr is rare in that he is an Iraqi Shi'ite leader independent of Iran. He led Shi'ite militants against U.S. forces after 2003 & has a cult-like following.

Second largest is the Fatah Alliance, whose leaders have close ties to Iran. It's led by paramilitary leader Hadi al-Amiri. This includes the political wing of Asaib Ahl al-Haq, which the US & the Badr Organization, which fought alongside Iran in the 1980-1988 Iran-Iraq war.

Shia parties separate to Fatah include Iran’s most powerful Iraqi proxy, Kataib Hezbollah, which recently formed the Huqooq party; former PM Haider al-Abadi's National State Forces Alliance & former PM Nouri al-Maliki State of Law coalition.

Then come Sunnis: Mohammed al-Halbousi's Taqaddum (Progress) alliance & Khamis al-Khanjar's Azm coalition.

Then the Kurds: KDP, which dominates Erbil; & PUK along Iranian border & Sulaimaniyah.

A sectarian patchwork that ensures electoral divisions:

So what's been happening?

This election cycle has seen a huge amount of mudslinging - often sectarian in nature - as well as a variety of parties conducting influence operations, including what we might loosely term 'disinformation.' Several themes recur, clearly targeting issues sensitive to Iraqis.

Many dominant narratives are recycled from the 2018 elections: ballot boxes being burned, faulty or hacked voting server, & of course the perennial 'western & foreign meddling.' Many of these have a pro-Iran tinge as the Shia militia & associated groups are the worst offenders.

To take just a few examples: this last week Iraqi TV ran an interview with Qais Al-Khazali, Secretary General of Fatah alliance party Asa’ib Ahl Al-Haq, who warned that foreign states were trying to interfere in the elections - especially through cyber attacks.

A Kata’ib Hezbollah-linked group also claimed it hacked a database containing a list of politicians frequenting the Saudi Embassy in Baghdad, which was supposedly buying votes for them. A false report targeting Shia fears re: KSA meddling & undermining PMF opponents.

Sources on the ground telling me turnout is really low. Hearing as low as 10% in Kirkuk, and perhaps 20% elsewhere. If things don't improve will the results even stand with such low numbers?

Things hotting up now. 'Resistance', pro-Iran network Sabereen News is claiming unknown forces have entered a Manadhira school polling st. in Nahrwan to mess with the count. No confirmation if true but groundwork being laid for post-election fraud claims. #Iraqelection2021