Just over a week ago, I had a bad feeling about Ipswich (don't we all? - ed) when it was ranked 7th in the East of England for weekly Covid rates. It's really kicking off there now, with daily specimens close to its January 2020 high-point.
*Tips hat to NoDPI sigma.*
Graphs via @Ian_Campbell_ as usual. East of England last 6 weeks weekly total rates: iancampbell.co.uk/covid-19.php?s…
January *2021* I meant. I'm never quite sure if we're in year 1 or year 38 of the pandemic. :/
Naturally, this surge in East Anglia has not been a surprise to me. It's been almost inevitable for months. In fact, I'm surprised it's taken so long to really get going.

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More from @ArtySmokesPS

13 Oct
#UKCovid Twitter has been getting excited about anomalies in test results in the SW of England, with LFDs and PCRs producing clashing results. Negative PCRs are leading to previously reported positive LFD cases being removed from the records. It's a mystery! [Thread] 1/15 ImageImage
There has been lots of speculation, which is great if you want to discuss nasal mucus with random strangers on the internet, or want to learn how Bayes' theorem can be applied to theoretical false positives and negatives. But I prefer real numbers. 2/15
A few of us have been studying the weird SW data on the Gov dashboard since 10th September. This thread (the pilot episode of a potential mini-series with even better graphs) serves to show just how odd the situation is. More data will follow. 3/15
Read 15 tweets
21 Sep
I don't know what they're sprinkling on the kids' Weetabix, but Kettering has overtaken local rival Corby to go #1 in the UK Covid charts. Local schools are full of it and positive specimens just hit an all-time high. #EastMidlandsForTheLose ImageImageImageImage
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Similar things happening in parts of West Midlands that haven't really hit the headlines before. Quite a separation in case rates between under- and over-60s developing, as Covid spreads through school-age humans. #Rugby #Stafford ImageImageImageImage
Read 14 tweets
5 Sep
**Covid FESTIVALS final wrap-up THREAD**
Thousands of tents were abandoned at Bank Holiday festivals, but did campers take Covid home with them? Let's have a look at the graphs and maps. TLDR; Covid transmission at big BH festivals was not as bad as some had feared. Image
CREAMFIELDS (Halton, Cheshire).
Daily rates (by day of report) went up in a few LTLAs near to the site in the days following the festival, but the weekly rates remained below those of other parts of the NW. ImageImageImageImage
Creamfields was 18+, but cases rose faster in Blackpool, Allerdale, Tameside, and Barrow, where outbreaks in unvaxed 15-19yr olds were probably driving numbers upwards. (This may be investigated in another thread). ImageImage
Read 17 tweets

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