Matt & Noah have pointed to this paper ('Effects of Parental and Sibling Incarceration: Evidence from Ohio') as an example of an econ paper reaching a right-wing conclusion (incarceration of parents has positive externalities) the left reflexively opposes…
Norris et al. try a real-world "quasi-experiment" based on sentencing disparities among Ohio judges

In the intro, the authors point to an Ohio-peculiar detail (in Ohio gov't aid isn't cut off from convicted felons) and a bleak remark about how prison increases TANF eligibility
The authors say they examined 1.9 criminal cases from 1990–2017 involving 670,000 defendants and their families

They conclude that children who are age 0–16 when a parent is first incarcerated are about ~5% less likely to later be incarcerated themselves…
Theauthors find similar results among siblings. But there are important caveats:
-the result only holds up for the poorest families
-the result only holds for the shortest prison sentences
-the result only holds well for incarcerated mothers, not parents in general
-the result holds for children of parents having a first-time contact with the criminal justice system
-the children of incarcerated parents are found to have lower school enrolment & school achievement, and higher teen pregnancy rate

the authors conclude incarceration is *bad*
I mean, this is buried in the supplemental data, but:
Also...Ohio has the third highest rate of parental incarceration (behind Indiana and Kentucky, where ~13% (!!) of parents of young children have been in prison) half of all incarcerated parents in Ohio come from the poorest 16% of neighborhoods. woof:

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More from @SababaUSA

30 Aug
Re-upping bc this is pretty comical—

the invention of the modern vice presidency was a comedy of errors

first, the Committee of Eleven comes up with the idea for the electoral college, but they're worried electors will always vote for candidates from their home state, so…
…James Madison hatches the idea that every elector shall have two votes to cast for president, and only one such vote may be cast for a home-state candidate

Veep was basically invented as a reason to justify this two-vote method. The runner-up for pres would be veep… /2
…Further, veep was therefore thought the right position for presidential successor-in-waiting for vacancies because the veep would be the presidential runner-up

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28 Aug
I've taken a cursory look at the ivermectin phenomenon, and there's one figure who seems central to its initial rise: Sen. Ron Johnson /1
Hydroxychloroquine started trending almost immediately in the first week of March 2020. The spikes on Google Trends coincide with Trump tweets, (linked below)
There are also spikes for dexamethasone and regeneron around Trump's hospitalization

/2… Image
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11 Feb
It's fine, obviously, to look for some perspective and ask critically whether today's conspiratorial thinking is appreciably different from the past, but this doesn't hold up to even cursory analysis (beside that I think the attached graphic is bogus)
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Second, it's obvious that Qanon had and has major purchase in the Republican mainstream, including lawmakers and including *the last president* who left office three weeks ago. It's an eliminationist ideology that elicited an actual mob attack on the government itself
Read 5 tweets

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