1/3 #Bitcoin price has moved substantially above the 200-day moving average. I looked at what happened after price moves 1.2x 200MA. There were 47 such times since 2011 and I looked at the next 90-day period after each event.
2/3 #Bitcoin price continued to rise in all but 6 cases (88%) (this is called momentum). Median return 35%, average return 72%. When it lost, it lost an average of -22%. Overall, very impressive odds and performance.
3/3 The Kelly Criterion allocation for this circumstance is about 96%, meaning almost "all in". Prudent investors cut the Kelly Ratio in half (the remainder goes into cash BTW, not some other risky asset).


• • •

Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh

Keep Current with Timothy Peterson

Timothy Peterson Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!


Twitter may remove this content at anytime! Save it as PDF for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video
  1. Follow @ThreadReaderApp to mention us!

  2. From a Twitter thread mention us with a keyword "unroll"
@threadreaderapp unroll

Practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @nsquaredcrypto

22 Sep
1/7 I'm going to take on this #bitcoin hit piece by Bloomberg. Bloomberg hates bitcoin. A read of the article body shows the headline is clickbait intended to damage bitcoin's reputation.

2/ The article cites "enthusiasts" (not experts) when describing the source of volatility (the ambiguous "new"). The actual sources of volatility are manipulation nacva.com/jfia-current#1 and liquidity issues from #bitcoin's daily txn processing cane-island.digital/s/Research-Not…
3/ Here is a look at bitcoin's correlation with major asset classes. There is no trend or pattern here. With 10 years of data on the books, #bitcoin holds its own as a unique asset class.
Read 7 tweets
14 Jul
1/19 WHY #BITCOIN (thread)
Sources of economic growth can be simplified as having two components: Labor (population) and Productivity (technology, etc. where the output is greater than the input). Productivity is ultimately dependent upon the health and education of the worker.
2/ A sick worker cannot work; an uneducated worker cannot be productive.
If population growth rates decline (as they are now, globally, because boomers are dying), a country can either import labor (immigration) or increase productivity.
3/ Globally, #immigration is a zero-sum game. One country’s economic gain can only come from another’s economic loss. Globally, economic growth is at risk because population growth rates are slowing/declining.
Read 19 tweets
9 Jun
1/14 How to get the most from my #twitter feed (thread).

I have quite a few new followers, welcome! This post will help you understand the context of my tweets. Image
2/ I am an investment manager. The firm's flagship strategy is global macro. investopedia.com/terms/g/global…. #FinTech is sometimes a major theme in that strategy.
3/ #Bitcoin / #crypto is a personal hobby. My firm does not directly invest in #crypto but will occasionally have thematic exposure to that asset class. Tweets are not always crypto-related. Image
Read 14 tweets
18 Apr
0/ By request, here are #investing resources for serious beginners. This path will allow you to be an independent and informed investor. You will never be a slave to what other ppl think are "good" investments again. It can be done by anyone who is willing. 5 books = 5 weeks.
1/ First you must understand why tech analysis and day trading don't work well. Start with tradeciety.com/24-statistics-… and amazon.com/Random-Walk-Do…
2/ Second you need to know the basics of investing. Read CFA Investment Foundations Module 3, 4, and 5. These can be downloaded free at cfainstitute.org/programs/inves…
Read 7 tweets

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!

This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3/month or $30/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Too expensive? Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal Become our Patreon

Thank you for your support!

Follow Us on Twitter!