1/3 #Bitcoin price has moved substantially above the 200-day moving average. I looked at what happened after price moves 1.2x 200MA. There were 47 such times since 2011 and I looked at the next 90-day period after each event.
2/3 #Bitcoin price continued to rise in all but 6 cases (88%) (this is called momentum). Median return 35%, average return 72%. When it lost, it lost an average of -22%. Overall, very impressive odds and performance.
3/3 The Kelly Criterion allocation for this circumstance is about 96%, meaning almost "all in". Prudent investors cut the Kelly Ratio in half (the remainder goes into cash BTW, not some other risky asset).

investopedia.com/terms/k/kellyc…

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More from @nsquaredcrypto

22 Sep
1/7 I'm going to take on this #bitcoin hit piece by Bloomberg. Bloomberg hates bitcoin. A read of the article body shows the headline is clickbait intended to damage bitcoin's reputation.

msn.com/en-us/money/ma…
2/ The article cites "enthusiasts" (not experts) when describing the source of volatility (the ambiguous "new"). The actual sources of volatility are manipulation nacva.com/jfia-current#1 and liquidity issues from #bitcoin's daily txn processing cane-island.digital/s/Research-Not…
3/ Here is a look at bitcoin's correlation with major asset classes. There is no trend or pattern here. With 10 years of data on the books, #bitcoin holds its own as a unique asset class.
Read 7 tweets
14 Jul
1/19 WHY #BITCOIN (thread)
Sources of economic growth can be simplified as having two components: Labor (population) and Productivity (technology, etc. where the output is greater than the input). Productivity is ultimately dependent upon the health and education of the worker.
2/ A sick worker cannot work; an uneducated worker cannot be productive.
If population growth rates decline (as they are now, globally, because boomers are dying), a country can either import labor (immigration) or increase productivity.
3/ Globally, #immigration is a zero-sum game. One country’s economic gain can only come from another’s economic loss. Globally, economic growth is at risk because population growth rates are slowing/declining.
Read 19 tweets
9 Jun
1/14 How to get the most from my #twitter feed (thread).

I have quite a few new followers, welcome! This post will help you understand the context of my tweets. Image
2/ I am an investment manager. The firm's flagship strategy is global macro. investopedia.com/terms/g/global…. #FinTech is sometimes a major theme in that strategy.
3/ #Bitcoin / #crypto is a personal hobby. My firm does not directly invest in #crypto but will occasionally have thematic exposure to that asset class. Tweets are not always crypto-related. Image
Read 14 tweets
18 Apr
0/ By request, here are #investing resources for serious beginners. This path will allow you to be an independent and informed investor. You will never be a slave to what other ppl think are "good" investments again. It can be done by anyone who is willing. 5 books = 5 weeks.
1/ First you must understand why tech analysis and day trading don't work well. Start with tradeciety.com/24-statistics-… and amazon.com/Random-Walk-Do…
2/ Second you need to know the basics of investing. Read CFA Investment Foundations Module 3, 4, and 5. These can be downloaded free at cfainstitute.org/programs/inves…
Read 7 tweets

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