Imo, we probably have another 3-10x in crypto market cap that’s “easy beta” over the next 5 years, but we’re past the point where you can just throw a little money into a few blue chip assets and produce lifetime wealth over a few years. The “easy” money now? Building. /1
2/ Consider NFTs. Crypto punks were literally free in 2017. A random basket of “high quality” NFTs purchased 18 months ago is up 100x+. Now? The wealth is getting captured by the NFT sellers (and tool/platform builders), not the buyers (mostly.)
3/ many of the higher quality layer 0s and 1s have $20b+ valuations pre-traction, sometimes even pre-mainnet launch. Could these produce 100x returns? Sure, but with lots and lots of risk and a real chance of never breaking even.
4/ if you don’t have millions of dollars to invest, spending your time trying to pick winners or hodling and obsessing over the value of your portfolio isn’t productive. Your path to riches - build something useful.
5/ building isn’t easy. It’s incredibly hard. But in a relative sense, I think building in crypto is the easiest path to wealth in the world today.
6/ okay, so how do you become a builder? If it’s not obvious to you what to build, or it’s not clear what skillset you bring to the table, join an existing big or small team. That’ll give you a seat to network, observe, and learn, until you spot your killer opportunity.
7/ being a builder doesn’t mean you need to be a founder. Most people aren’t good at entrepreneurship and don’t enjoy it. You can join a small team, contribute via a DAO, etc.
8/ much more so than with trading/investing, you walk away from unsuccessful building with a lot of useful experience, connections, and understanding. Often takes a few tries to create something of value.

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More from @AriDavidPaul

12 Oct
In my tweetstorm yesterday about BTC's 21m coin limit, I made a tangential claim that's complex and worthy of diving into. *All value (and ultimately almost all power) in a crypto ecosystem is held by marginal buyers of coins (even in a PoS system)*. /1
2/ All income in crypto ultimately comes from this. Miners get paid by selling their rewards to new buyers. Stakers and yield farmers similarly only earn returns by selling their rewards to new buyers.
3/ Arbitrageurs, market makers, exchanges, and brokers, same. While they make money on both sides of the trade (buying and selling), there's no selling without buying. For every crypto sale, there definitionally has to be a buy. While the opposite statement is also true,
Read 16 tweets
11 Oct
Most of my followers know the answer to this, but for anyone curious, here’s an honest, nuanced answer: /1
2/ how do we “know” Bitcoin’s 21m limit will hold? The protocol itself is relatively simple open source code with a straightforward emission schedule that ends at 21m coins. So really the question is, “will people change the code.”
3/ anyone can take Bitcoin’s code and change it however they like. It’s like changing the TCP/IP protocols or FTP protocol. You can change it on your personal computer, but then you’re on a different network than everyone else. Your change wouldn’t be noticed by anyone else.
Read 15 tweets
6 Oct
Technical analysis is just pattern finding. When it works, it works because of behavioral psychology (like anchoring bias.) Aside from suggesting trade setups, I find TA useful for "talking" markets, a way to frame psychology. IMO, BTC has been in accumulation since mid-may./1
2/ I may be totally wrong in this analysis, but here's how I'd frame this year's market action: BTC had massive institutional and high net worth individual (HNW) investment in Q3 and Q4 last year, then retail buying in Q1. Then we ran out of marginal new buyers.
3/ the short-term retail traders sold on the loss of momentum. "value" buyers nibbled at $44k and in mid $30s, but bigger size was looking for <$30k. The trading between $30-$50k has been weak hands distributing to strong hands.
Read 6 tweets
4 Oct
20 years ago, people talked about "inflation", or occasionally "stagflation" in the 70s. Today inflation seems to come in all sorts of flavors with lots of dispersion across geographies and types of assets. Here's a big picture explanation of what's going on for non-experts.
2/ first really big picture - there's been a 50+ year trend of deflationary pressure from technology and to a lesser degree from globalization. Globalization -> cheap labor -> lower input costs -> lower final prices. Automation and algorithms -> cheaper production -> lower prices
3/ we had money printing really accelerate post-financial crisis, but at first, that was fully offset by a collapse in the "velocity of money." There was more money, but it was moving around the economy a lot slower. Ex: banks were just parking huge amounts of cash at Fed.
Read 19 tweets
3 Oct
I’m medium term very bullish, but will fairly soon be in profit taking mode. I’m not sure what medium term means. My guess is we have one more major parabolic run this bull cycle, don’t know if that is a 3 month or 18 month timeline. I’ll clarify - /1
2/ in trading a full market cycle, my approach is to trade around a very long position for the first 2/3 of the bull run, then gradually trade around a less and less long core position when we’re in the later parabolic stages. I’m still making long term buys today,
3/ but fairly soon I expect to view any new buys as momentum trades with stops. Worth noting that the last parabolic stages often give the sharpest rallies and highest returns…but also pose the most risk and sharpest reversals. Imo, it’s 1998 in cryptocurrency.
Read 6 tweets
1 Oct
Plenty of people (particularly young highly skilled people) care about social justice and want to work somewhere that does. But plenty don’t care or care but don’t want to spend their workdays getting called racist. Competitive hiring edge for now until equilibrium is reached.
2/ to clarify - you’ve got an ideologically diverse applicant pool. If most employers are appealing to a particular segment and another segment is neglected, moving into that underserved employment niche is a commercial win. Doesn’t matter what ideology.
3/ as a related example - people sometimes point to a company raising wages or “going green” apparently anti-commercially, but then having commercial success as evidence everyone could do it. Imo, it’s the opposite. These things work specifically because few companies do them.
Read 4 tweets

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