The group of militants involved in Poonch ambush was probably the first [detected] group to infiltrate post Feb 25 ceasefire. It infiltrated through Sunderbani sector on July 7, has killed 10 Indian soldiers, including three Junior Commissioned Officers, lost 7 members.

July 7, 2021: A group of militants infiltrates through Sunderbani sector, in Rajouri district, is detected by Indian army and in the ensuing gunfight three militants (probably foreigners) and two Indian soldiers including a JCO are killed.
August 6, 2021: A group of militants is detected in Thanamandi, in Rajouri district, two militants are killed, others manage to escape. PAFF owns the militants identifying one of them as Kashmiri from southern Shopian district, suggesting another was probably a foreigner.
August 19, 2021: A group of militants is cornered again in Thanamandi, in Rajouri district. Two Indian soldiers including a JCO are killed. A militant is killed too (Indian claim).
September 13, 2021: A group of militants is detected in Manjkote in Rajouri, a militant is killed, others manage to escape. PAFF owns the militant, a local from southern Shopian district.
Oct 11, 2021: Indian army search/ patrol party walks into an ambush in Surankote, in Pooch district, five Indian soldiers including a JCO are killed. PAFF owns the attack. The efforts to trace the militants have now entered Day 4.
So, if it's the same group of militants that infiltrated through Sunderbani, Rajouri on July 8 this year, it has been in Rajouri/Poonch districts for nearly 100 days, which suggests these militants are *based* in Jammu region, have probably no interest to move to Kashmir valley.
It's not possible for militants to survive, especially in forests without local support. The police chief (DIG) of Rajouri/Poonch reportedly says that these militants are moving in the area for 3 months, but have no local support! So, how do they survive, I wonder?
April 18, 2021 when PAFF claimed to have started its operations in Jammu Division.
If these are just a bunch of militants lost in forests of Pir Panjal for "three months" with no local support, my assessment of Jan is still wrong. If these are militants who based themselves in Rajouri/Poonch, have local support, then maybe I was right!

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More from @kashmirosint

12 Oct
al-Qaeda (AQIS) claims #Kashmir in new video entitled "Kashmir is Ours", featuring a purported Kashmiri fighter from Budgam. He says how he migrated to Pakistani Kashmir, how Pakistan betrayed them, and says that al-Qaeda mujahideen are on peaks of Pir Panjal mountains already! Image
The jihadist who also speaks Kashmiri, says that after 2001 Pakistani ISI gave Kashmiri fighters based in Pakistani Kashmir, jobs and money to leave 'jihad' and start normal lives, some took the offer, some went back to Kashmir on govt amnesty, but he with others joined al-Qaeda.
The jihadist gives accounts of different incidents [war-crimes] he says he witnessed in Kashmir that forced him to join 'jihad'. The jihadist says that 'they (al-Qaeda) will aid Kashmiri militants by all means and they will liberate Kashmir'.
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23 Sep
Two years ago on this day, the founding Emir of al-Qaeda in the Indian Subcontinent (AQIS), and the highest ranked Indian jihadist ever, Maulana Asim Umar was killed in US-Afghan raid in Helmand, Afghanistan. 40 civilians including children and women were killed in the raid too.
Asim Umar was born in northern Indian state of UP, graduated from Darul-Uloom Deoband in early 90s, moved to Pakistan and studied further at multiple Islamic seminaries, including Darul-Uloom Haqqania in KP province. He was associated with HuJI/HuM/ before moving to al-Qaeda.
Asim Umar was a very close associate of Kashmiri jihadist Ilyas Kashmiri. While Ilyas Kashmiri had physically taken part in Kashmir jihad, Asim Umar contributed through propaganda literature, authored multiple books among other things. He's also known as Indian al-Awlaki!
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19 Sep
The first Kashmiri militant was killed in Srinagar on Sep 18, 1988. 33 years later, on Sep 11, 2021, another Kashmiri militant was killed in Rajouri. ~25,000 militants killed since militancy started. What did India achieve in 34 years? What will it achieve in another 34 years?
The police chief of Kashmir in 1988, is retired now, a politician who spends his days playing golf. The police officers of 2021, will retire too, some may get extension, some will write books, become politicians and play golf too. New faces will replace them — the cycle goes on.
Indian Army officers too. They will retire as proud counterinsurgency officers (which was technically the job of police) who killed hundreds of terrorists, who also happened to be their fellow countrymen. The politicians will rule and retire. The militancy will still be here.
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19 Sep
Sep 18 in 2016, militants carried out one of the biggest attacks on Indian Army in #Kashmir; 4 LeT fidayeen (suicide) attackers raided Indian Army Brigade Headquarters in Uri, in northern Baramulla district, killing at least 19 soldiers, injuring dozens.
LeT introduced fidayeen attacks in Kashmir, on July 13, 1999 when two fidayeēn attackers raided Indian paramilitary (BSF) sector headquarters in northern Bandipora district, killing at least five personnel including the DIG.
For those who like details — fidayeen attack doesn’t literally/ technically mean a “suicide attack”. The Arabic term “fidayeen” translates to “self-sacrificers”. In this context, the attackers using gun attack with an intention to kill, be killed or escape, and never be captured.
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16 Sep
To understand what impact Afghanistan can have on Kashmir, we need to go back 34 years in history, to 1987, to see how insurgency started in Kashmir, find if Afghanistan impacted Kashmir back then? What changed since — and we’ll probably have answer to our question!

If you’re a hyper-nationalist who prefers sponsored takes by a sponsored think-tanks over local perspectives, stop reading. If you’re an India police officer who doesn’t use OSINT at work, picks FIR register when he reads something that doesn’t suit the narrative, stop reading.
While #Kashmir has been under Indian rule since 1947, the insurgency only started in 1987 after Indian govt collaborated with a local pro-India political party, allegedly rigged state assembly elections to defeat dominant separatist political alliance, Muslim United Front (MUF).
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6 Sep
The epic jailbreak in Palestine reminds me of year 1999 in Kashmir, when a veteran of Afghan jihad, Sajad Afghani dug a tunnel to escape from jail along with JeM founder Masood Azhar, but Azhar was too fat to move through the tunnel, got stuck, and Indian police killed Afghani.
Sajad Afghani was a Kashmiri from Rawalakot, a Sudhan (ethnic Pashtun). He had taken part in Afghan jihad against Soviets, then came to Kashmir under the banner of Harkat-ul-Ansar. He died saving Masood Azhar. Masood Azhar stills talks about Afghani in his speeches.
Masood Azhar’s obesity cost India dearly. If he had passed through that tunnel at Kot Balwal in 1999, he would’ve been killed too. IC 814 would’ve never happened, JeM wouldn’t exist, Parliament, Uri, Pulwama, Pathankot and countless other attacks would’ve never happened.
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