There have been plenty of illustrations now about the deception of 90% to 99% vaccine effectiveness (VE).

There is also now plenty enough real-world, empirical data to assess the effectiveness of the COVID vaccine overall as a public health tool.
In respect of COVID cases, it is clear that there have been substantially more this year, post-vax, than there were last year.

At least it looks like cases are no longer rising like they did last year into the "season".

Is this because of the vaccine?
Well, most of the cases are in the vaccinated. Of course, most of the population is vaccinated.

So, are there really more cases in the unvaccinated?


The rate of cases in the fully vaccinated is directly proportional to the vaccinated population.
OK, but with 90% to 99% effectiveness in reducing severe illness, we should see substantially less vaccinated in hospital than unvaccinated, relative to cases, right?

Well, the shapes of the curve don't look like the vaccinated are doing any better.
But what about the VE?

There's about a 13% to 19% absolute difference in vaccinated proportion of COVID hospitalisations and vaccinated population, so, yes, perhaps there is evidence of reduced severity.

[Never mind there are substanitally more hospitalisations than last year.]
More importantly, can we see the same VE in deaths?

Nope. No obvious difference in the slopes of the curves except the unvaccinated appears less severe.
And relative to the vaccinated population?

Nope. Exactly the same, just like cases. No evidence whatsoever that there are relatively fewer vaccinated COVID deaths than the vaccinated population.
Again, fortunately deaths appear to be declining compared to last year when they were rising. Great news!

Can we attribute this to the vaccine? No, because the vaccinated are doing no better than the unvaccinated. Maybe (just maybe), it's background natural immunity?
And in terms of overall public health, have "we" put a lid on excess deaths?

Alas not.

The current situation is significantly worse than last year or many previous years in fact for the time of year.

And it's not COVID.


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More from @RealJoelSmalley

13 Oct
For the lockdown/NPI zealots, explain this simple fact. Despite these measures, why is there evidence of two unusual distributions of death in England as a whole and in care homes - the spring first emergence of COVID-19 and the start of mass vaccinations but nowhere else?
When answering this question be sure to address these points:
1. Measures were strictest in spring 2020 when excess deaths were most severe.
2. There is no increase in deaths when measures are lifted.
3. The evidence of the introduction of masks, tiers, rules of 6, curfews, etc.
P.S. It's totally OK to admit to the existence of seasonality and herd immunity. These were things before COVID and still are, no matter how much you want to deny them.
Read 4 tweets
12 Oct
Care home deaths can tell us quite a lot about COVID and not COVID in England.
There are only two distinct disturbances in the mortality distribution - the spring 2020 epidemic and winter 2021 **whatever it is**.
The rest is expected seasonal variation.
But what is more revealing is the on/off relationship with non care home deaths....
Although similar in shape, spring 2020 care home peak was later and in autumn there is no relationship.
It suddenly aligns perfectly with non care home when vaccination starts in winter but then flat lines all summer whilst COVID unusually seems to be killing non-residents.
Read 4 tweets
10 Oct
Much is being made of Florida's dramatic decrease in COVID cases inspite of no intervention. I'll go further and demonstrate the potential impact of vaccination.
Spoiler alert: it's worse not better.
At the point at which cases start to rise in 2021, 45% of the population is fully vaccinated. And yet, cases are more than double the equivalent period in 2020 when the virus was apparently novel and epidemic.
Conversely, COVID deaths are only one-third higher. Naively, you would say that vaccines therefore reduced COVID mortality? Even if true, it would be a pyrrhic victory if you can't reasonably explain why the virus should be more infectious but not naturally less virulent.
Read 7 tweets
8 Oct
Pick a US state at random...
Let's say Vermont? Why not?
Compare "case" rate before and after v$x program.
Note that said case rate is substantially higher after v$x.
Inevitable conclusion: ceteris paribus, v$x increases cases.
Perhaps the virus became more transmissible (but logically less virulent) AND/OR perhaps the v$xxine reduces the cases of severe illness?
OK, let's check hospitalisations...
Note that hospitalisations are substantially higher after v$x.
You get the rest?
If you can't see it yet (especially those responsible for public health), I suggest you brush up on immunosuppression and leaky vaccines. Here, I'll get you started...
You're welcome. *sarcasm
Read 5 tweets
7 Oct
Adverse Events Following Immunisation Reports, Absolute and Per Dose, Australia
Nope, nothing to see here, no signal, nothing. 🤷‍♂️
COVID Vaccines Adverse Event Reports, Australia
Top 10 Most Common Symptoms
Headache as a symptom may seem somewhat innocuous but I am informed it could be indicative of micro brain clots.
Read 4 tweets
3 Oct
Ah London, we've had a problem.
1. COVID epidemic was over week 27, 2020.
2. Endemic COVID arrives early season 2020/21? But otherwise not extraordinary.
3. Until vaccinating starts.
4. Very atypical rise in deaths since week 26, 2021.
5. 2021/22 looking bad. Not due to COVID.
Here's another way to look at this and cut through the hysterical bull coming from the "authorities". There was an epidemic wave that stands out spring 2020 probably made worse by govt intervention, a vax-induced wave in winter 2021 and now +250 non-COVID deaths/week.
See also this thread which goes into greater detail. It's all in the all-cause mortality data. You can't hide that truth.
Read 4 tweets

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