Ed Conway Profile picture
Oct 20, 2021 16 tweets 6 min read Read on X
OK that’s enough cross-country comparisons. How is the situation in the UK re cases, admissions and deaths? These charts tell some of that story. In short, the vaccines seem to be doing their job. Back in the late 2020 wave, look how correlated those lines were. Not any more.
I say the “vaccines are working”. But hang on: in that case why are even more vaccinated people dying of COVID now than unvaccinated people?
The answer comes back to CONTEXT, which is all-important here. Consider the latest data from English hospitals… assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/upl…
In the most recent period (13 Sept - 10 Oct) there were 2,805 Covid deaths in this database.
2,136 of them were fully-vaccinated.
Only 557 of were unvaccinated people (NB by unvaccinated I mean no doses at all).
Easy to assume from that the vaccines aren’t working. But hold on
Let’s deal with the most important function of vaccines: to reduce the likelihood of death. Are they doing that?
To find that out we need to check these numbers against two important bits of context: vs age and vs total caseload. In short, to work out a crude case fatality rate
The point here is we want to compare like with like. Age groups with age groups. Because, as we all know, covid mortality is very age-dependent.
So first let's break down those 2,805 deaths by age. And unsurprisingly the vast majority (2,486) are among those aged over-60.
Now let’s take those 2,486 Covid deaths among over-60s and check the percentage who are double vaccinated: 80%. Very high. But lower than the% of this age group which is double vaccinated.
We can’t get a CFR, crude or otherwise, without comparing those deaths to the total number of cases among that age group: 72,063 (so high I needed to shrink the deaths bar so they’re in proper proportion).
88% of those cases were vaccinated.
88% vs 80%. Not much difference. But…
Now let's do the final bit necessary to come up with a CFR and work out what percentage of those cases - vaccinated and unvaccinated respectively.
So we divide the small bits by the big bits...
And here's what you end up with.
Among over-60s, the percentage of these FULLY VACCINATED covid cases (63,767) who go on to die is 3.2%.
Among the same age group, the percentage of UNVACCINATED (2,691) cases who went on to die was 14.3%.
I suppose the overarching point is to be a bit wary of scary numbers - from all sides.
There is certainly reason for caution and concern re Covid right now. And it's certainly right to scrutinise whether the vaccines are doing the job.
But CONTEXT MATTERS!
Oh and let me know if those animated charts are helpful or just annoying. Something of an experiment. Full video explainer of all this with me prancing around in front of the big screen is on @skynews tonight so, if you aren't already, tune in!
Finally here’s crude case fatality rates by age and vaccination status for all age groups.
As the name suggests, these are crude: for a proper CFR you’d want to tie cases to deaths, while this is more of a snapshot over a period.
But it’s about the best real world data we have.
Having turned off Twitter last night I turned it on again this morning and realised some of the charts in this thread were out of date. Apologies. Turns out my spreadsheet hadn't refreshed the data from the API. So I've deleted the offending tweets & below are updated versions
The broad narrative is the same even once the charts are updated: look at cases alone and it looks as if the UK is the worst placed of all the countries here. But that misses some important context: UK is testing more than most countries...
Look at other metrics: positivity (cases as % of tests), hospitalisations, deaths, and the UK is, while higher than most of Europe, not an outlier. UK deaths are currently running at about the same level as the EU as a whole.
The broad takeaway is much the same but the charts do look somewhat less dramatic; and interesting to note Israel & Japanese rollercoasters.
Anyway. Clearly the real lesson is: don't just look at the context. Also check your database to make sure it's up to date!
Apologies again.

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More from @EdConwaySky

Jun 4
The chart I can't quite get out of my head is this one👇
Population-adjusted net migration since 1855(!)
We've NEVER seen net migration flows like this before.
Whether you put it down to post-Brexit migration rules, post-Covid shifts or something else, it's an ENORMOUS shift... Image
I'm quite surprised the issue isn't even bigger this election.
Perhaps it's because it takes a while for data trends to become a cultural issue.
Think Polish plumbers, post-war Commonwealth migration or Windrush generation.
The recent flows from India/Nigeria dwarf all those...
Cumulative immigration to UK since 2021:
India: 670k
Nigeria: 310k
China: 274k
Pakistan: 166k
HK: 131k
Ukraine: 108k
Even if u subtract students you're talking abt 301k from India & 103k from Nigeria.
Whatever your priors on migration, there's no disputing these are BIG numbers.
Read 5 tweets
May 31
Am I allowed, at this stage, to point out that... there is no such thing as a fossil fuel free book?
Like it or not, paperback & hardback books are fossil fuel products.
If that sounds odd, consider for a moment how the book you've been idly flicking through is actually made...
We all know the main ingredient in paper is wood. Turning wood into paper is a v energy-intensive process.
In the UK it accounts for roughly 6% of our emissions. Mostly thru burning gas to power the mills.
Paper mills are trying to reduce their emissions. But it's not easy Image
But it doesn't end there.
Because these days if you want your paper to be acid free (so it lasts) and white, you need to bleach it. And what do we use to bleach paper?
Hydrogen peroxide.
& where does hydrogen peroxide come from?
Anthraquinone: an organic compound made from OIL🛢️
Read 10 tweets
May 15
V interesting new analysis out today from the @IPPR.
There have been plenty of reports saying we need to do what we can to rebuild manufacturing & grow green tech.
But WHICH SECTORS could the UK actually compete in? This report provides some of the answers news.sky.com/story/rapid-st…
Full report here👇
It's precisely the kind of forensic work this govt (or the next one) needs to do on industrial strategy. We can't hope to compete with China & the US in EVERY field. So what do we focus on?
They say: heat pumps, wind and green transport ippr.org/articles/manuf…
Now a few key charts from the @ippr report. Some are also in the TV report we're running on @skynews today.
First off (and most depressingly) the UK has deindustrialised faster than any other developed economy. We've actually LOST a lot of our expertise and competencies Image
Read 6 tweets
May 14
🧵
Joe Biden has just confirmed he's going to raise the special tariff on electric vehicles coming from China to 100%.
Also new tariffs on batteries and solar panels.
What's going on here?
Here's a quick primer with some charts 👇
First off, a recap on what's happened with tariffs.
The standard tariff on cars is 2.5% - that's what most other nations pay.
Trump levied an extra 25% tariff on China in 2018.
Now far from changing course, Biden is doubling down - or rather quadrupling down.
Now it'll be 102.5%
Why is this happening?
Well, a big part of it is politics.
But the other part of it comes back to this chart👇
China has come from nowhere in the past few years to become a car exporting powerhouse.
Just look!
And this is almost entirely because of electric cars Image
Read 13 tweets
May 2
I hate to be pedantic (and no doubt this will mean I'll be labelled as one of those doomsters @KemiBadenoch is calling out here) but there's a few problems with the data the biz/trade sec is quoting here.
When you correct them, the picture looks a little different...
🧵
Let's start with the big one.
In all the charts in the @biztradegovuk document she quotes from, it looks like export volumes are bigger than ever before 👇
Hurrah!
Except this is true only when you fail to adjust for inflation. Which, as we all know, has been VERY high recently Image
Let's take the same @ONS database and use the inflation-adjusted series, as we really should when comparing flows over time.
Suddenly, what looked like an ever-increasing volume of trade is actually a lot more flat.
Goods exports (dark blue bars) are still well below pre-Brexit. Image
Read 14 tweets
Apr 26
🚗UPDATE🚗
- Britain is STILL sending millions of pounds of luxury cars into states neighbouring Russia, according to new data.
- There is STILL no especially plausible explanation
- Car lobby group the @smmt STILL insists it's got NOTHING to do with Russian sanctions
🧵
You may recall this from last month 👇 abt how UK car exports to Russia stopped when sanctions were imposed. But they spontaneously. mysteriously rose to Azerbaijan.
I promised to post regular updates if the phenomenon continued. Well, it's continuing
In Feb the UK exported £26m worth of cars to Azerbaijan.
To put this into perspective, it means in the most recent quarter Azerbaijan was our 17th biggest car market. Bigger than Ireland or Portugal!
This is a small developing country we've NEVER sent that many cars to... Image
Read 20 tweets

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