SAINIK Profile picture
21 Oct, 13 tweets, 2 min read
1. NIFTY FIFTY : Excerpted from an article by Stewart Investors. There was a category called 'Nifty Fifty" in the US too in the 60's & 70's.
The Nifty Fifty was a group of 50 stocks identified by market commentators, although it was never an official benchmark index.
2.The companies shared similar characteristics: high quality franchises benefitting from surging economic growth and strong balance sheets. Delivering healthy profits and good returns for investors year after year, they came to trade on very high valuations.
3. It was said by many investors at the time that Nifty Fifty stocks should be bought and never sold. By the early 1970s they had become the darlings of many institutional investors and staples of their portfolios.
4.The group included Revlon, Procter & Gamble, Philip Morris, Pepsi, Pfizer, Merck & Co, Eli Lilly, Coca-Cola, IBM, Gillette, Wal-Mart, Disney, Eastman-Kodak and Polaroid.
5.The PEs of some of the Nifty Fifty moved into stratospheric territory as the 1960s progressed. By the early 1970s, the highest rated companies, darlings of the market, were trading on stunning valuations:
6.Johnson & Johnson (57x), McDonald’s Corp (71x), Disney (71x), Baxter Labs (71 x), International Flavours & Fragrances (69x), Avon Products (61x), Polaroid Corp (94x) and MGIC Investment Corp (68)
7.On 29 May 1969, Warren Buffet called time on the ‘go-go years’ by winding up his investment partnership. He saw little further upside because of the extended valuations.
8.The years 1973 and 1974 were tough ones for equity investors. The Nifty Fifty stocks initially held up relatively well against the market but then came under severe selling pressure. As one columnist at Forbes Magazine put it: ‘the Nifty Fifty were taken out and shot one by one
9. From their highs, some of the share price declines to 1974 lows were precipitous: Xerox (-71%), Avon (-86%) and Polaroid (-91%). The vulnerability of highly-rated companies to rising risk aversion was starkly revealed.
10.Lessons for Investors: The Nifty Fifty highlights the dangers of a long, late-cycle bubble for equity investors. It reminds us that de-ratings of highly-valued companies can be savage, significant and swift.
11. Even high quality businesses can be poor investments if they are bought at extended valuations or not sold as valuations become extended. Source : stewartinvestors.com/all/insights/s…
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More from @sainik636

19 Oct
1. Momentum Investing: @deepakshenoy. I had Dinner with Deepak on 24th July & for more than 3 hours discussed anything & everything on the markets. Raised the issue of Small Case portfolios being negatively affected due to SEBI margining starting from Sep & affecting liquidity.
2. He was cool & collected as usual & said he would be able to manage the volatility since he has done that in the past & would get concerned only if the Small Cap Index starts trading down 10%+. Come August my fears seemed to be coming true (down 8 %),however Deepak held on.
3. The Aug. fall seemed to be an aberration. Soon after, the market took off & has gone up by nearly 10 % as of today over Jul 23rd. Kudos to him for being methodical in his approach. Was surprised that he was receiving "gyan" on his momentum approach.
Read 5 tweets
11 Oct
1.Interesting to note that D-Mart is making new highs on a day its rival is planning to open 7-11 stores in a BIG WAY. That's the "insanity" of a Bull Market
2. Interesting to note a company which uses Coal as a RM going up when there are reports of huge Coal shortage. That's the "insanity" of a Bull Market
3. Interesting to note an Index which is very interest rate sensitive making an ATH when the 10 y yield reaches a 6 month high. That's the "insanity" of a Bull Market.
Read 8 tweets
10 Oct
1. Will Air-India be an" Elephant in the Room" or a "White Elephant" for Tatas ? Some thoughts .
2.There has been almost universal approval of the Govt's decision to hive off Air-India. For the Govt it is like a Stop-Loss moment. The tax-payer benefits the most since he no longer will subsidise a losing proposition. The Govt. may actually benefit more than what appears.
3.While on the face of it Govt. is taking 46 K Cr. debt on its books, but it has got 3K Cr. Cash, will retain Real Estate & Sundry Assets. including the vast Art Collection, which insiders peg the value at more than Rs.5 K Cr. The RE can be packaged & monetised. Win-Win situation
Read 13 tweets
4 Oct
1. A brief summary of discussions on CH on 3/10/2021 "Will Oct spring a surprise - Lessons from History ". “October: This is one of the peculiarly dangerous months to speculate in stocks. Others are July, Jan, Sept, Apr, Nov, May, March, June, Dec, August & Feb.”
― Mark Twain,
2. Oct has had the biggest fall (22 %) & the biggest rise (16 %) in a study of S&P 500 since 1964. Oct'29 & '87 are well known. In India too, Oct '94,'98,'08 are known for the downside while '07 rallied. In summary, Oct is a very "dangerous" month due to "mindless" volatility.
3.This time Oct is likely to witness the same kind of mindless volatility due to extended valuations; geo politics; RBI policy; Fed mischief, Inflationary trends, results season, China shenanigans etc .
Read 16 tweets
1 Oct
1." LOOKING BACK, LOOKING AHEAD" or as @CNBCTV18Live would say: "Quarter se Quarter Thak".Kudos to that copywriter who devised this phrase QSQT.{ As an Ad professional who cut his teeth in Ogilvy Advertising for me this would have been a dream line}👍 Some thoughts on Markets.
2. At the beginning of the last Quarter had charted out mentally that September would most likely be the "peak" month, did not speculate on what would be the Level, though must admit that, the levels did surprise me.
3. While the Indices have come down significantly from the highs of September we still don't know whether they were the "Peaks". Nevertheless the moves indicate that any rallies from here are on, are likely to be sold since "something" has changed.
Read 9 tweets
29 Sep
1."The Train has left the station" aka "Do the Advisors have Skin in the Game" ?.
2. Huge Interest in the Market & large number of market Analysts/Strategists expectedly giving "gyan" on Indices/Markets & collecting huge fees through Webinars/TV Appearances sucking in the naïve retail folks. Recent volatile moves have made these guys go on to overdrive .
3. Moving Targets are being given on Indices with most of them blithely asking followers to sell ONLY Below xyz levels while looking forward to higher & higher targets ignoring ground realities. Recency bias at peak since they have been successful in the past.
Read 9 tweets

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